تغییرات بارندگی و اثر آن بر امنیت غذایی و درآمد خانوارها

از آنجا که فعالیت کشاورزی به شرایط جوی وابسته است، همواره با عدم‏حتمیت روبرو می‏باشد. با این حال، کشاورزی تامین‏کننده قسمت اعظم غذای مورد نیاز و ضامن امنیت غذایی هر کشور است. از سوی دیگر، با وجود افزایش جمعیت و تغییرات شدید زیست محیطی و اقلیمی، فراهم نمودن غذایی سالم، کافی و مداوم برای تمام اقشار جامعه یکی از چالش‏های هر حکومت می‏باشد. هدف این مطالعه، ارزیابی نوسانات بارندگی بر امنیت غذایی ایران با استفاده از یک مدل تعادل عمومی با رویکرد تصادفی است. سه شوک برای بارندگی در قالب سه سناریوی در نظر گرفته شده است. برای ارزیابی امنیت غذایی دو جنبه مهم فراهم بودن و دسترسی مواد غذایی مورد تجزیه و تحلیل قرار گرفت. نتایج نشان داد که تغییرات بارندگی بیشترین تاثیر را بر تولید گندم داشته و در سناریوی بهترین بارندگی بیشترین افزایش در مقدار تولید گندم دیم مشاهده شد. در مورد واردات کالاها پس از شبیه‏سازی سه سناریوی اعمال شده نیز تغییراتی در واردات ایجاد شد که بیشترین واردات مربوط به کالاهای کشاورزی است که کالای سایر غلات دیم و بعد از آن گندم دیم بیشترین درصد تغییر را در سناریوی کمترین بارندگی به خود اختصاص داد. در نهایت، نتایج نشان داد که تغییرات بارندگی در شرایط کنونی کشور تاثیری معنی‏داری بر امنیت غذایی ندارد و برای حفظ این شرایط باید میزان تولیدات و واردات را با توجه به شرایط بارندگی تنظیم نمود.

rainfall changes and its impact on food security and household income

introduction food security refers to the ability of all individuals to access sufficient food at all times for a healthy life. agriculture is the primary source of food production and plays a crucial role in ensuring the food security of every nation. however, agricultural activities are often subject to uncertainty due to their reliance on weather conditions. given that rainfall is one of the most significant climatological parameters, investigating the impact of climate change on this variable and predicting its effects is essential. furthermore, changes or reductions in rainfall can lead to numerous economic and social consequences in the region. additionally, despite the growing population and severe environmental and climatic changes, ensuring a healthy, adequate, and consistent food supply for all segments of society remains a challenge for every government. the aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of rainfall fluctuations on food security in iran.materials and methodseconomic policymakers typically aim to predict the potential effects of a policy and analyze the outcomes before implementation. generally, to examine the impact of these policies on economic variables, two methods are employed: partial equilibrium and general equilibrium analysis.a review of the results from the conducted studies indicates that climate change impacts agricultural products, which are essential for the country’s food security, in various ways. consequently, there is a need for a comprehensive model capable of effectively addressing these changes, as they have far-reaching effects across all economic sectors. this research aims to evaluate the impact of rainfall variations, a fundamental component of climate, on food security and household income by employing a general equilibrium model with a stochastic approach. for this purpose, three scenarios for rainfall have been considered and two important aspects of availability and accessibility of food have been analyzed to evaluate food security.in this research, the input-output table of iran for the year 2015 was utilized. the social accounting matrix (sam) serves as the most effective data source for assessments that necessitate comprehensive information on the flow of income within the economy. within the framework of national accounts, the preparation of the sam is recommended as a statistical tool for analyzing the roles of economic institutions, particularly households, in generating and distributing income.results and discussionin this study, we aimed to evaluate the effects of changes in rainfall on food access and availability, both of which are critical components of food security, using a general equilibrium model. this research considered three scenarios: maximum rainfall, average rainfall, and minimum rainfall. in addition to changes in crop yields, fluctuations in rainfall will also affect product prices, both of which may contribute to decreased access to food and increased food insecurity. in the domestic market, reduced access to food—resulting from declining crop yields—will drive up the prices of essential food supplies, such as wheat and other grains, particularly under severe rainfall conditions. according to the research findings, under a scenario of minimal rainfall, the supply of dry wheat is projected to decrease by 10%, while other agricultural products may decline by 6.6%, and food industry products could drop by 4.3%. it is important to note that fluctuations in rainfall have a lesser impact on the production of aquatic products. furthermore, irrigated crops contribute a larger share of food for the population compared to rainfed crops.conclusionthe research results indicated that the decrease in rainfall significantly affects product output, income, and pricing across various sectors of the economy.in general, low rainfall can decrease disposable income and increase household poverty. additionally, under conditions of water scarcity and limited resources, surface water retention can significantly help mitigate the effects of reduced rainfall and ultimately compensate for the diminished productivity caused by this lack of precipitation.in another aspect of the research, the results indicated that the changes in agricultural production and imports, although moving in opposite directions, were not perfectly balanced. this discrepancy suggests the influence of other variables, such as pricing and government policies. in the event of decreased rainfall, it becomes essential to increase food imports to safeguard food security within the community. furthermore, establishing and strengthening small processing industries in rural areas is beneficial for mitigating the adverse effects of climate change. these industries help reduce product waste, and some goods can be transferred from high-yield regions to those with lower productivity.rainfall variations under the current conditions in the country do not impact food security. to sustain these conditions, both production and imports should be adjusted in accordance with rainfall patterns.