ارتباط سنجی الگوهای پیوند از دور با سری های دمایی و راندمان محصول زرشک در حوضه قائنات

کشاورزی یکی از بخش هایی است که بیشترین تاثیر را از اقلیم و محیط اطراف دریافت می کند. عوامل و عناصر اقلیمی و تغییرات آنها منجر به تعیین الگوی کشت و پراکنش گونه های مختلف می شود. الگوهای پیوند از دور از جمله عواملی است که هم بر آب و هوای یک منطقه و هم بر محصولات کشاورزی تاثیرگذار می باشد. هدف از پژوهش حاضر بررسی ارتباط بین الگوهای پیوند از دور و سری های دمایی و راندمان محصول زرشک در حوضه قائنات می باشد. بدین منظور از داده های دمای حداقل، دمای حداکثر، متوسط دما، دمای حداقل مطلق و دمای حداکثرمطلق ایستگاه های قائن و گناباد طی دوره 1400-1368 و 16 الگوی پیوند از دور استفاده شد. برای ارتباط سنجی ها از آزمون های همبستگی پیرسون و رگرسیون خطی استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد شاخص های amos، amo و tna بیش از سایر شاخص ها با سری های دمایی مورد مطالعه همبستگی داشته اند. از نظر زمانی نیز متوسط دما، دمای حداقل و دمای حداکثر در ماه های ژولای و اکتبر و دمای حداکثر مطلق در ماه ژولای بیش از سایر ماه ها با شاخص های پیوند از دور همبستگی نشان داده اند. طبق نتایج تحلیل واریانس دو الگوی amo و amos بیش از سایر الگوها بر سری های دمایی مورد مطالعه تاثیر داشته اند. نتایج همبستگی بین الگوهای پیوند از دور و راندمان محصول زرشک نیز حاکی از آن است که شاخص nino3 با میزان تولید زرشک همبستگی معکوس در سطح معناداری 99 درصد و شاخص ao با عملکرد محصول همبستگی معکوس در سطح معناداری 95 درصد داشته است.شرایط آب وهوایی و تغییرات آن بر الگوی کشت زرشک اثر دارد باتوجه به اینکه منطقه موردمطالعه دارای اقلیم گرم و خشک است و محصول زرشک از نظر فیزیولوژیکی نیاز به گرما و درجه حرارت بالا ندارد، تغییرات اقلیمی و افزایش دما می تواند در عملکرد کشت زرشک پیامدهای منفی داشته باشد. با رخداد پدیده گرمایش جهانی و همچنین اثراتالگوهای پیوند از دور بر محصولات کشاورزی می بایست برنامه ریز دقیق و مشخصی دراین رابطه انجام گردد.

correlation of teleconnection patterns with temperature series and productivity of barberry in ghaenat basin

introductionbarberry is one of the healthy and organic products of the country. this product can make an important contribution to the export of the country’s agricultural sector with systematic planning and infrastructure creation. barberry is one of the crops that require little water and is recommended for optimal use of water and soil resources and replacement with plants with high water consumption. seedless barberry is one of the valuable native plants that is grown only in iran as a garden product. due to its high resistance in the conditions of water shortage and desert weather, it is a strategic product for many people in desert areas and especially in south khorasan. this agricultural product is one of the strategic agricultural products in the province and iran and plays a high role in creating wealth for the livelihood of villagers. therefore, investigating the characteristics and growth conditions of this product is of great importance. one of the things that should be studied for this product is the effect of climatic parameters and especially temperature changes on the growth and yield of this type of plant.research methodologyto conduct this research, the monthly data of minimum temperature, maximum temperature, average temperature, absolute maximum temperature and absolute minimum temperature of qain and gonabad stations during the period of 1989-2021 have been used. also, the data of 16 teleconnection patterns at the same time as the mentioned period were used to measure the relationship between the studied parameters and teleconnection patterns. these patterns were extracted and used from the noa site. correlation and linear regression tests will be used in order to investigate the relationship between teleconnection patterns and studied temperature parameters and the amount of barberry production and yield. in this way, the existence of correlation and connection between the studied parameters will be identified.resultsthe results of the correlation between the average temperature of the studied basin and teleconnection patterns showed that in qain station, the average temperature parameter is more correlated with tna, amo, and amos patterns. the correlations occurred mostly in the second half of the year during the months of june to december, and in the first half of the year, almost all indicators were without correlation. in the minimum temperature parameter, tna, amo, nta, amos have shown more correlation than other indices. in this parameter, more correlations have been observed in the second half of the year. in terms of time, in the two months of september and november, more indicators have been correlated with the minimum temperature. in the maximum temperature parameter, ea.wr, nta and amos indicators have shown more correlation with the maximum temperature of qain than other indicators. the correlations occurred mostly during the months of march to december. the nao, nino1.2, and tni indices did not show any correlation with the maximum temperature of qain in any of the months. the absolute maximum temperature of qain station in july has shown a correlation with the teleconnection indices. in the months of june, september to december, it has not shown any correlation with any of the link patterns. the absolute minimum temperature of qain station in january has shown more correlation with the link patterns than other months. amos, amo and nta models have more correlation with this parameter than other models. correlation between teleconnection indices and barberry production and yield showed that the nino3 index had a 99% significant inverse correlation with the barberry production and the ao index had an inverse correlation with the barberry yield at a 95% significance level. the correlation between the studied temperature parameters and the amount of barberry production and yield during the studied period showed that there was no correlation between them.