اولویت بندی ریسک‌های ناشی از تغییرات اقلیمی در ایران

در بین ده عامل تهدیدآمیزی که بشر را در قرن 21 تهدید می‌کنند، اکنون پدیده‌ تغییر اقلیم در رتبه‌ نخست قرار دارد. مسئله‌ اصلی در بروز این پدیده پیامدهای آن برای طبیعت و زندگی بشر است. هدف از این پژوهش شناسایی مهمترین‌ ریسک‌های ناشی از تغییرات اقلیمی و اولویت‌بندی آنها با روش‌های تصمیم‌گیری چندمعیاره پرداخته شده است. به منظور آشنایی با اثرات اقلیمی و آزمون فرضیات، پرسشنامه‌ای برای اولویت‌بندی اثرات اقلیمی تهیه شده است. ‌در‌ این ‌میان ‌از‌ گفتگوهای ‌جمعی ‌اطلاعات ‌مفیدی‌ جهت‌ تحلیل و بررسی ‌مساله‌ به ‌دست‌ آمد. برای طراحی پرسش‌نامه از نطرات 25 کارشناسی و خبره استفاده‌گردید. پاسخ پرسش شوندگان به صورت اولویت بندی اثرات اقلیمی براساس روش ahp فازی و رتبه‌بندی مناطق اقلیمی براساس روش waspas مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. نتایج نشان می‌دهد، ضریب t در تمامی شاخص‌ها بیشتر از صفر و حد متوسط می‌باشد، بدین ترتیب بین تمام شاخص‌ها و ریسک تغییر اقلیم رابطه معنادار مشاهده می‌شود. بیشترین ضریب متعلق به مخاطرات محیطی با ضریب 9/35 می‌باشد. نتایج همبستگی پیرسون نشان داد، میانگین تمامی شاخص ها بیشتر از عدد چهار می‌باشد و رابطه تمام شاخص‌ها با یکدیگر مثبت می‌باشد که این مسئله بیانگر تاثیر تک تک این شاخص ها برروی یکدیگر می‌باشد. بیشترین وزن نهایی شاخص‌های شش‌گانه در روش ahp fuzzy متعلق به مخاطرات محیطی با وزن 201/0 و سپس منابع آبی با وزن 193/0، اقتصادی 170/0 می‌باشد. رتبه‌بندی مناطق اقلیمی با استفاده از روش واسپاس نشان داد، به لحاظ ریسک‌پذیری تغییر اقلیم در شاخص‌های شش‌گانه به ترتیب منطقه نیمه خشک، خشک، مدیترانه‌ای، نیمه‌مرطوب، فراخشک، مرطوب و سرد و کوهستانی در رتبه‌های1تا7 قرار گرفته‌اند

prioritizing the risks caused by climate change in iran

among the ten threatening factors that threaten humanity in the 21st century, the phenomenon of climate change ranks first. the main issue in the emergence of this phenomenon is its consequences for nature and human life. the purpose of this research is to identify the most important risks caused by climate change and prioritize them with multi-criteria decision making methods. in order to familiarize with climatic effects and test hypotheses, a questionnaire has been prepared for prioritizing climatic effects. in the meantime, useful information was obtained from group discussions to analyze and investigate the issue. the opinions of 25 experts and experts were used to design the questionnaire. the responses of the respondents were evaluated in the form of prioritizing climatic effects based on the fuzzy ahp method and ranking the climatic regions based on the waspas method. the results show that the coefficient of t in all indicators is greater than zero and the average limit, thus a significant relationship is observed between all indicators and the risk of climate change. the highest coefficient belongs to environmental hazards with a coefficient of 35.9. pearson’s correlation results showed that the average of all indicators is greater than four and the relationship between all indicators is positive, which indicates the influence of each of these indicators on each other. the highest final weight of the six indicators in the ahp fuzzy method belongs to environmental hazards with a weight of 0.201, followed by water resources with a weight of 0.193, and economy with a weight of 0.170. the ranking of climatic regions using the waspas method showed that in terms of climate change risk in six indicators, semi-arid, dry, mediterranean, semi-humid, ultra-arid, wet and cold and mountainous regions are ranked 1-7 respectively. among the ten threatening factors that threaten humanity in the 21st century, the phenomenon of climate change ranks first. the main issue in the emergence of this phenomenon is its consequences for nature and human life. the purpose of this research is to identify the most important risks caused by climate change and prioritize them with multi-criteria decision making methods. in order to familiarize with climatic effects and test hypotheses, a questionnaire has been prepared for prioritizing climatic effects. in the meantime, useful information was obtained from group discussions to analyze and investigate the issue. the opinions of 25 experts and experts were used to design the questionnaire. the responses of the respondents were evaluated in the form of prioritizing climatic effects based on the fuzzy ahp method and ranking the climatic regions based on the waspas method. the results show that the coefficient of t in all indicators is greater than zero and the average limit, thus a significant relationship is observed between all indicators and the risk of climate change. the highest coefficient belongs to environmental hazards with a coefficient of 35.9. pearson’s correlation results showed that the average of all indicators is greater than four and the relationship between all indicators is positive, which indicates the influence of each of these indicators on each other. the highest final weight of the six indicators in the ahp fuzzy method belongs to environmental hazards with a weight of 0.201, followed by water resources with a weight of 0.193, and economy with a weight of 0.170. the ranking of climatic regions using the waspas method showed that in terms of climate change risk in six indicators, semi-arid, dry, mediterranean, semi-humid, ultra-arid, wet and cold and mountainous regions are ranked 1-7 respectively. among the ten threatening factors that threaten humanity in the 21st century, the phenomenon of climate change ranks first. the main issue in the emergence of this phenomenon is its consequences for nature and human life. the purpose of this research is to identify the most important risks caused by climate change and prioritize them with multi-criteria decision making methods. in order to familiarize with climatic effects and test hypotheses, a questionnaire has been prepared for prioritizing climatic effects. in the meantime, useful information was obtained from group discussions to analyze and investigate the issue. the opinions of 25 experts and experts were used to design the questionnaire. the responses of the respondents were evaluated in the form of prioritizing climatic effects based on the fuzzy ahp method and ranking the climatic regions based on the waspas method. the results show that the coefficient of t in all indicators is greater than zero and the average limit, thus a significant relationship is observed between all indicators and the risk of climate change. the highest coefficient belongs to environmental hazards with a coefficient of 35.9. pearson’s correlation results showed that the average of all indicators is greater than four and the relationship between all indicators is positive, which indicates the influence of each of these indicators on each other. the highest final weight of the six indicators in the ahp fuzzy method belongs to environmental hazards with a weight of 0.201, followed by water resources with a weight of 0.193, and economy with a weight of 0.170. the ranking of climatic regions using the waspas method showed that in terms of climate change risk in six indicators, semi-arid, dry, mediterranean, semi-humid, ultra-arid, wet and cold and mountainous regions are ranked 1-7 respectively.