بررسی تغییرات مقادیر حدی دما و بارش ایران در 60 سال گذشته

گرمایش جهانی، باعث احتمال بیشتر رخداد دماهای حدی می شود که تاثیرات اجتماعی و زیست محیطی آنها در مقیاس محلی زیاد است. بیشتر مطالعات انجام شده در این زمینه، حاکی از کاهش دماهای حدی پایین و افزایش دماهای حدی بالاست. به منظور بررسی این تغییرات ، از داده های دما و بارش روزانه 27 ایستگاه همدیدی (سینوپتیک) کشور استفاده گردید. نمایهها ی حدی دما نیز در پنج دسته، شامل نمایه ها ی حدی مبتنی بر صدک ،ها مطلق، آستانه ای، دورهای و سایر در دوره 2017 1958 محاسبه گردید. نمایه های حدی دما ﻣﺮﺑﻮط ﺑﻪ ﺑﺎرش و دﻣﺎ ﻛه توسط گروه کارشناسیetccdmi معرفی شده، استفاده و با نرم افزار rclimdex مقادیر نمایه ها محاسبه شد. به کمک آزمون ناپارامتری من کندال معنا داری روند بر روی هر کدام از ایستگاهها در سطح اطمینان 95 و 90 درصد مورد آزمون قرار گرفت و به کمک رگرسیون خطی و شیب سن مقادیر شیب و نرخ تغییرات بدست آمد. یافته های این پژوهش نشان داد که به طورکلی شاخص های حدی بارش کشور فاقد روند بوده و شاخص های حدی گرم مانند روزهای تابستانی، تعداد شب های حاره ای، روزها و شب های گرم کشور دارای روند افزایشی می باشند. در حالیکه شاخص های حدی سرد در دوره مورد مطالعه روند کاهشی دارند که نشان دهنده کاهش شدت و فراوانی رویدادها و روزها و شبهای سرد است. در ایران هیچ روند زمانی معنی داری در میانگین فراوانی روزهای یخی وجود ندارد. ولی روزهای یخبندان روند کاهشی معنی داری را تجربه کرده است.

investigation of changes in the extreme of temperature and precipitation in iran in the last 60 years

introduction:over the past hundred years, human activity has significantly altered the atmosphere and increase of concentration of greenhouse gases lead to warm the earth’s surface. this global warming leads to change of climatic extreme index and increases the intensity and frequency of occurrence of extreme climate events. investigation of extreme values for planning and policy for the agricultural sector and water resource management is important.in this study, a comprehensive review of extreme indices of temperature and precipitation are discussed. this paper aims to investigate extreme temperature and precipitation indices defined in accordance with ccl, and the study of other climatic parameters in iran.materials and methods: in this research, statistics and data of 27 stations in the iran during the period 1958 2017 were used. to evaluate the extreme climate indices trend, 27 indices of rainfall and temperature, were defined by the etccdmi. they were calculated by rclimdex software. in this software, prior to the index calculation, data by quality control software became quantitative and incorrect data were controlled and outlier data were examined. the indices were calculated by daily data. 11 rainfall and 16 temperature indices were calculated by this software.the target of the etccdmi process is to delineate a standardized set of indices allowing for comparison across regions. these extreme indices were classified in five categories which included the percentile based extreme indices, the absolute extreme indices, the threshold extreme indices, the periodic extreme indices, and the other indices. they were estimated at the 0.05 significant levels. the mann kendall test was used to investigate the climatic parameters, temperature and precipitation.results and discussion: thermal analysis results are consistent with warming patterns, and they have showed that hot extremes indices have increased. hot days index (su25), shows a significant positive trend in all studied stations. number of tropical nights has a positive trend in all stations. hot day frequency (tx90p) and hot night frequency (tn90p) in most of stations show a positive trend, indicating an increase in the number of warm days and nights. cold extreme indices show a decreasing trend. (tx10p) and (tn10p) show significant negative trends in all stations and indicate a decrease in cold days and nights. number of frost day index shows a decreasing trend. overall, the results revealed a decrease in the severity and frequency of cold events, while warm events during the study period were significantly increased. comparison of years with the highest rainfall and those with the lowest, showed that the amplitude of fluctuations in precipitation in different years is very high and the distribution of rainfall at distinct stations is different. conclusion :the results showed that intense warm indices, such as the summer day index, the number of tropical regions warm nights, days, and nights have increased, while during the study period, severe cold indices have decreased. trends, which show a decrease in the intensity and frequency of cold events. the door there was no significant trend in rainfall indices during the study period.introduction:over the past hundred years, human activity has significantly altered the atmosphere and increase of concentration of greenhouse gases lead to warm the earth’s surface. this global warming leads to change of climatic extreme index and increases the intensity and frequency of occurrence of extreme climate events. investigation of extreme values for planning and policy for the agricultural sector and water resource management is important.in this study, a comprehensive review of extreme indices of temperature and precipitation are discussed. this paper aims to investigate extreme temperature and precipitation indices defined in accordance with ccl, and the study of other climatic parameters in iran.materials and methods: in this research, statistics and data of 27 stations in the iran during the period 1958 2017 were used. to evaluate the extreme climate indices trend, 27 indices of rainfall and temperature, were defined by the etccdmi. they were calculated by rclimdex software. in this software, prior to the index calculation, data by quality control software became quantitative and incorrect data were controlled and outlier data were examined. the indices were calculated by daily data. 11 rainfall and 16 temperature indices were calculated by this software.the target of the etccdmi process is to delineate a standardized set of indices allowing for comparison across regions. these extreme indices were classified in five categories which included the percentile based extreme indices, the absolute extreme indices, the threshold extreme indices, the periodic extreme indices, and the other indices. they were estimated at the 0.05 significant levels. the mann kendall test was used to investigate the climatic parameters, temperature and precipitation.results and discussion: thermal analysis results are consistent with warming patterns, and they have showed that hot extremes indices have increased. hot days index (su25), shows a significant positive trend in all studied stations. number of tropical nights has a positive trend in all stations. hot day frequency (tx90p) and hot night frequency (tn90p) in most of stations show a positive trend, indicating an increase in the number of warm days and nights. cold extreme indices show a decreasing trend. (tx10p) and (tn10p) show significant negative trends in all stations and indicate a decrease in cold days and nights. number of frost day index shows a decreasing trend. overall, the results revealed a decrease in the severity and frequency of cold events, while warm events during the study period were significantly increased. comparison of years with the highest rainfall and those with the lowest, showed that the amplitude of fluctuations in precipitation in different years is very high and the distribution of rainfall at distinct stations is different. conclusion :the results showed that intense warm indices, such as the summer day index, the number of tropical regions warm nights, days, and nights have increased, while during the study period, severe cold indices have decreased. trends, which show a decrease in the intensity and frequency of cold events. the door there was no significant trend in rainfall indices during the study period.