تجزیه وتحلیل سیستمی مکانیزم‌های اولیه و ثانویه موثر بر آلودگی هوای شهر تهران

آلودگی هوا از جمله مهمترین معضل کشور های در حال توسعه می باشد که هر ساله خسارات جانی و مالی بسیاری به این کشور ها وارد می سازد. از این لحاظ تهران چهاردهمین شهر آلوده دنیا است.در این راستا هدف از انجام این پژوهش تحلیل سیستمی مکانیزم‌های اولیه و ثانویه موثر بر آلودگی هوای شهر تهران می باشد. روش تحقیق این پژوهش توصیفی و نمونه آماری پژوهش متشکل از اساتید دانشگاه ها و کارکنان سازمان های تصمیم گیرنده و متولی امر آلودگی هوا در حوزه محیط زیست و بالاخص آلودگی هوا می باشد. عوامل موثر بر آلودگی هوا بر اساس مطالعات تحقیقات مختلف شناسایی و با دریافت نظرات خبرگان به دو دسته عوامل اولیه و ثانویه تقسیم بندی شد. بعد از شناسایی و دسته بندی عوامل موثر بر آلودگی هوا با کمک نرم افزار سناریو ویزارد به سناریو نویسی پیرامون معضل آلودگی هوای شهر تهران پرداخته شد که در مجموع دو سناریو سازگار توسط نرم افزار ارائه شده است.سناریو اول با سازگاری قوی و ارزش سازگاری 7 و امتیاز اثر 231 و سناریو دوم با سازگاری قوی و ارزش سازگاری 1 و امتیاز اثر 216 نمایش داده شده است. همچنین توسط هر سناریو عوامل نیز رتبه بندی شده است. مهمترین عوامل ثانویه موثر بر آلودگی هوای شهر تهران از لحاظ ساختاری طبق تحلیل سیستم گرید ارائه شده توسط نرم افزار می توان به ترتیب به طرح و برنامه و خط مشی گذاری، اختصاص بودجه مناسب، مهاجرت و تراکم جمعیت، دولت الکترونیک، عوامل فرنگی، گسترش و رشد صنعت، گسترش بی رویه شهر تهران و ساخت بزرگراه شهری، بلند مرتبه سازی، مدیریت پسماند و دفن زباله، فضای سبز، وسایل سرمایش و گرمایش خانگی و فعالیت کشاورزی و معدنی اشاره کرد .

systematic analysis of primary and secondary mechanisms affecting air pollution in tehran

introduction:today, the world’s population in 2018 is 7,632,819,325 billion. %54 of the world’s population lives in urban areas and that trend is expected to increase to 66 percent by 2050. in other words, half of the world’s population currently lives in cities, and %95 of population growth will occur in developing cities over the next 90 years. until 1800, only %3 of the population lived in cities, and by 1900, less than %15 lived in cities. among the problems of urban development is one of the most important risk of air pollution, which has greatly affected the lives of human societies and has caused a lot of costs in the field of health and urban management. according to the world health organization, 9 out of 10 people breathe polluted air, and it is estimated that 7 million people die each year as a result of environmental and household pollution. iran in general and the metropolis of tehran in particular are no exception to this rule, so that according to statistical data in 2017, 29,098 people died due to air pollution in iran..the number of factors affecting air pollution based on the method and cases studied is 18 factors. these factors include, natural factors, fossil fuels, environmentally friendly technologies, migration and population density, transportation and traffic, planning and policy making, green space, lack of proper budget allocation, urban location and focus of administrative and commercial centers, establishment of a factory in the west of tehran, improper expansion of the city and construction of urban highways, weakness in waste management and landfill. matherials methodsthe philosophical foundations of research are interpretive. the research orientation is applied. in this research, the research approach is combined. the research method in this research is qualitative and quantitative .the research layer was in the form of field and library activities. the research strategy in this research is survey. the objectives of the research are descriptive and data collection procedures using questionnaires and documents. also, data analysis tools in this research have been performed using wizard scenario software.discussion of resultsfor this purpose, first, the factors affecting air pollution in tehran must be identified, which has been achieved in the previous stages. also, the classification of factors into primary and secondary has been done by experts. the classification of primary and secondary factors is such that factors, natural factors, fossil fuels, environmentally friendly technologies, establishment of a factory in the west of tehran, urban location and concentration of administrative and commercial centers and transportation and traffic are among the primary factors. and factors, migration and population density, expansion and growth of industry, home and industrial cooling and heating equipment, design and program and policy, cultural factors, high-rise construction, e-government, allocation of appropriate budget, uncontrolled expansion of the city and construction urban highways, waste management and landfilling, agricultural and mining activities are among the secondary factors.in order to perform the analysis process, it is necessary to define different modes (descriptors) for each identified indicator or factor, because to work with wizard scenario software, different modes of a factor must be specified, in order to be able to accurately analyze the previous conditions. after identifying its modes and descriptors, a cross-impact analysis questionnaire was designed, which was completed by 10 experts in air pollution. each of them has a master’s or doctoral degree in environmental and policy-making. then, by taking the mode (frequency of the most selected number) from the answer sheet of the experts, the final numbers in