ارزیابی اثر تغییر اقلیم بر مشخصات امواج در سواحل خلیج فارس

عوامل مختلفی در ایجاد تغییر اقلیم نقش دارند که از آن جمله می‌توان به فرآیندهای اقیانوسی (مانند گردش‌های اقیانوسی)، تغییرات تابش خورشیدی دریافت شده از سوی زمین، فوران آتشفشان‌ها و تغییرات ناشی از فعالیت‌های بشری اشاره کرد. تغییر اقلیم بر روی پدیده‌های جوی و اقیانوسی از قبیل دمای سطحی کره زمین، بارش، تراز آب دریاها، سرعت بادها، ارتفاع امواج، خطوط ساحلی و سایر پدیده‌ها اثر گذاشته و این مشخصات را مورد تغییر قرار داده است. در مطالعه اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر پدیده‌های اقیانوسی، تخمین میزان اثرگذاری تغییر اقیلم در طولانی مدت از اهمیت زیادی برخوردار است. این امر از این جهت مهم می‌باشد که سازه‌های دریایی موجود در این مناطق تحت تاثیر این تغییرات قرار گرفته و نیاز به اصلاح دستورالعمل استاندارد مهندسی طراحی سازه‌های ساحلی می‌باشد. در این تحقیق با استفاده مدل تغییرات اقلیمیcgcm3 مقادیر سرعت باد برای خلیج فارس و دریای عمان استخراج گردید. این مقادیر به عنوان ورودی مدل، با استفاده از مدل عددی نسل سوم mike21(sw) که با کمترین پیش فرض‌ها به شبیه‌سازی پارامترهای موج می پردازد، تبدیل به مشخصات موج گردید و در نهایت میزان تغییرات مشخصات موج از قبیل ارتفاع موج، پریود موج و جهت موج در خلیج فارس، دریای عمان و بخشی از اقیانوس هند که متاثر از تغییر اقلیم منطقه می باشد بدست آمده است. نتایج بررسی‌ها نشان داده که اثر تغییر اقلیم بر روی ارتفاع موج و پریود موج ناچیز اما در سواحل مکران اثر تغییر اقلیم بر روی زاویه جهت موج قابل تامل می‌باشد و این امر روی فرآیند رسوب‌گذاری اثر‌گذار خواهد بود و پیشنهاد میگردد جهت احداث بنادر و سازه های دریایی از قبیل آبگیرهای آبشیرین کن ها در این مناطق اثر تغییر اقلیم بر روی جهت موج و اثر آن روی سازه مورد بررسی بیشتر قرار گیرد.

Evaluation of the effect of climate change on the characteristics of waves in the coasts of the Persian Gulf

Various factors play a role in climate change, including oceanic processes (such as ocean orbits), changes in solar radiation received from the earth, volcanic eruptions, and changes in human activity. Climate change has affected atmospheric and oceanic phenomena such as the Earth’s surface temperature, precipitation, sea level, wind speed, wave height, coastlines and other phenomena and has changed these characteristics. In studying the effects of climate change on oceanic phenomena, estimating the longterm impact of climate change is of great importance. This is important because the offshore structures in these areas are affected by these changes and there is a need to amend the standard guidelines for the design of coastal structures. In this study, using the CGCM3 climate change model, wind speed values ​​for the Persian Gulf and the Sea of ​​Oman were extracted. These values ​​as model input, using the third generation numerical model MIKE21 (SW) which simulates wave parameters with the least assumptions, were converted into wave characteristics and finally the amount of changes in wave characteristics such as wave height Wave period and wave direction have been obtained in the Persian Gulf, the Sea of ​​Oman and part of the Indian Ocean that is affected by climate change in the region. The results of studies have shown that the effect of climate change on wave height and wave period is negligible, but in Makran beaches the effect of climate change on the angle of the wave direction can be considered and this will affect the sedimentation process. The effect of climate change on the wave direction and its effect on the structure should be further investigated for the construction of ports and marine structures such as desalination catchments in these areas.Various factors play a role in climate change, including oceanic processes (such as ocean orbits), changes in solar radiation received from the earth, volcanic eruptions, and changes in human activity. Climate change has affected atmospheric and oceanic phenomena such as the Earth’s surface temperature, precipitation, sea level, wind speed, wave height, coastlines and other phenomena and has changed these characteristics. In studying the effects of climate change on oceanic phenomena, estimating the longterm impact of climate change is of great importance. This is important because the offshore structures in these areas are affected by these changes and there is a need to amend the standard guidelines for the design of coastal structures. In this study, using the CGCM3 climate change model, wind speed values ​​for the Persian Gulf and the Sea of ​​Oman were extracted. These values ​​as model input, using the third generation numerical model MIKE21 (SW) which simulates wave parameters with the least assumptions, were converted into wave characteristics and finally the amount of changes in wave characteristics such as wave height Wave period and wave direction have been obtained in the Persian Gulf, the Sea of ​​Oman and part of the Indian Ocean that is affected by climate change in the region. The results of studies have shown that the effect of climate change on wave height and wave period is negligible, but in Makran beaches the effect of climate change on the angle of the wave direction can be considered and this will affect the sedimentation process. The effect of climate change on the wave direction and its effect on the structure should be further investigated for the construction of ports and marine structures such as desalination catchments in these areas.Various factors play a role in climate change, including oceanic processes (such as ocean orbits), changes in solar radiation received from the earth, volcanic eruptions, and changes in human activity. Climate change has affected atmospheric and oceanic phenomena such as the Earth’s surface temperature, precipitation, sea level, wind speed, wave height, coastlines and other phenomena and has changed these characteristics. In studying the effects of climate change on oceanic phenomena, estimating the longterm impact of climate change is of great importance. This is important because the offshore structures in these areas are affected by these changes and there is a need to amend the standard guidelines for the design of coastal structures. In this study, using the CGCM3 climate change model, wind speed values ​​for the Persian Gulf and the Sea of ​​Oman were extracted. These values ​​as model input, using the third generation numerical model MIKE21 (SW) which simulates wave parameters with the least assumptions, were converted into wave characteristics and finally the amount of changes in wave characteristics such as wave height Wave period and wave direction have been obtained in the Persian Gulf, the Sea of ​​Oman and part of the Indian Ocean that is affected by climate change in the region. The results of studies have shown that the effect of climate change on wave height and wave period is negligible, but in Makran beaches the effect of climate change on the angle of the wave direction can be considered and this will affect the sedimentation process. The effect of climate change on the wave direction and its effect on the structure should be further investigated for the construction of ports and marine structures such as desalination catchments in these areas.