بررسی پایداری منابع آب در حوضه زاینده رود با استفاده از شاخص‌های پایداری و مدل‌های gms و lars-wg (آبخوان نجف آباد)

استفاده بی‌رویه از منابع آب سطحی و زیرزمینی این منابع را در معرض خطر قرار داده و از این رو مدیریت منابع آب به خصوص آبهای زیرزمینی در مناطق خشک و نیمه خشک از اهمیت خاصی برخوردار است. ی. در پژوهش حاضربرای بررسی پایداری منابع آب در این منطقه ازدو شاخص آب در دسترس (wai) و تنش آبی(wsi) استفاده شده است. نتایج دو شاخص نشان‌دهنده عدم تعادل در عرضه و تقاضا بوده و در نهایت گویای تنش آبی شدید در محدوده مذکور می‌باشد. سپس با استفاده مدلgms خشکسالی های آبهای زیرزمینی در دشت نجف آباد در طی سالهای 1389 تا 1393مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفت و شرایط کنونی این دشت را با استفاده مدل larswg برای 30 سال آینده از خروجی مدل hadcm3-a2 برای تولید سناریوهای اقلیمی منطقه در دوره 2011-2040 استفاده شد.بارندگی در دوره آتی به طور متوسط 34 درصد کاهش و دمای سالانه به طور متوسط 38درصد افزایش را نشان داد. به منظور برنامه ریزی بهتر برای منبع آب زیرزمینی،سه سناریو ادامه بهره برداری با وضع موجود به منظور بررسی تاثیر تغییر اقلیم بر سطح وبیلان آبخوان دشت نجف آباد برای 20،10 و 30 سال آینده بررسی شد. نتاج نشان داد که ذخیره آبخوان بتدریج در طی این سالها کم خواهد شدو بیشترین تاثیر افت در آبخوان در قسمت مرکزی و جنوبی منطقه است که دارای بیشترین چاه ها با حجم برداشت 800 میلیون متر مکعب می باشد و افت حدود 50 متر را در آبخوان نشان داد.. هم‌چنین نتایج بررسی‌های انجام‌شده نشان می‌دهد، در ارزیابی‌های انجام شده در تحقیقات گذشته، صحت‌سنجی شاخص‌ها صورت نگرفته است. از این رو در این تحقیق برای نخستین بار از نتایج مدل‌سازی به کمک نرم‌افزار gms در جهت صحت‌سنجی شاخص‌های مورد بررسی استفاده شد. به عبارت دیگر آیا نتایج مدل‌سازی نتیجه شاخص‌ها را تایید می‌کند یا خیر.

Analysis and evaluation of water resources sustainability indicators in Zayandeh Rud basin and its balanced solution (case study: Najaf Abad aquifer in Zayandrood Basin)

The potential of each country’s water resources is more and more pressed by population growth and the need for food and drink every day, while agriculture with the highest water use (83%) and its relation to soil, water, plant and climate, and climate impact Reducing the capacity of renewable water resources and increasing agricultural consumption will impose more pressure on each day and threaten the country’s water potential. In this study, to study the persistence of surface water and groundwater in the Najafabad area, three indicators of water intake ratio Renewable (C / RW), Available Water (WAI) and Water Tension (WSI) have been used to check the quantitative balance of water resources in the Najafabad area. According to the results, the proportion of water consumed to renewable water in Najafabad region was 0.87, which according to the standard table of indicators showed a sign of balance imbalance and exposure in critical area. Also, the available water index in this area is in the range of 1 1, which is within the range of Najafabad about 0.3, indicating an imbalance in supply and demand. Finally, the water stress index in this range was estimated at 1.27, indicating severe water stress in the range. The results of all indicators indicate that the current development in the Najafabad area caused an imbalance of water resources in this area, which would result in the aquifer’s instability in the future. In this regard, the achievement of the conditions for the sustainable development of water resources will be based on restoring the balance and achieving optimal water use in all sectors of consumption, especially in the agricultural sectornot only has not been reduced the use of underground water resources, but the need for renewable water sources has increased as a consequence of which the withdrawal of these resources has increased. Although the amount of renewable water in each watershed is fixed and constant, the time and space distribution of the amount of renewable water is completely variable and is not proportional to the distribution of population and water needs of human societies. While harvesting and consuming of these limited and almost constant sources of water due to population growth is steadily increasing (2012). (Birkenesse called shortage of fresh water as demand for physical water shortage and found that water supply shortages were the result of poor supply, water demand, or could be of different origin, such as climate change and diversification, underground water extraction, construction and population growth The results of all of the world’s water scarcity analyzes indicate that a large part of the world’s population will be affected by dehydration in the next few decades (Rijsbermansberman et al., 2006). As the years and decades In the near future, water per capita has increased sharply, due to the increase in welfare and, consequently, the diversification of water needs (Somoni et al. 81). In Iran, due to population growth, the growth of the agricultural sector and the expansion of urbanization, the extraction of groundwater resources has exceeded the limit in most areas, and the final cost of providing additional water and pollution of water resources has accelerated. (Ministry of Energy, 2006). On the other hand, the agricultural sector has not had a satisfactory performance in comparison with other leading countries, not only in rain fed areas, but also in soils and modern networks, which receive adequate water. The survival of Iranian agriculture is heavily dependent on irrigation water, and if we consider the future and the shortage of water resources in the future and its impact on the country’s agricultural development, Certainly, with the current trend of water resource management, agriculture will be faced with a large damages (the good and Khaled, 1382). In development of Isfahan province, water is the most important and at the same time the most limiting factor. On the one hand, the sharp decline in water resources caused by unauthorized exploitation and, on the other hand, the sharp increase in demand in different sectors of consumption has led to severe water stress and unbalanced consumers.Therefore, in order to preserve aquifers, assessment of their sustainability is necessary based on the indicators of water resources sustainability against future events and events. In this regard, worldclass studies have been conducted to solve the challenges using water resource sustainability indicators. For example (Jingwei Li, 2017), the use of WSI water stress index to increase legal concerns regarding the impact of shortages Water has been explored on the sustainable development of dryland lands in northern China. In this research, this indicator was calculated for 2003 and 2014, and then the difference between these indicators for the years mentioned above has been evaluated with a dynamic view. Finally, the water stress dynamics in three levels of catchment area, urban areas and the entire study area, the results showed that areas with higher water stress should be the priority of effective measures. (Kong et.al., 20011) successfully applied the WSI index to assess the sustainability of water resources in the Geum Basin in South Korea.