خوشه بندی و تحلیل روند تغییرات تراز میانی جو در دهه‌های اخیر

به منظور واکاوی تغییرات زمانی ارتفاع تراز میانی جو، داده های میانگین ماهانه و سالانه ارتفاع این تراز در بازه زمانی 1972-2016 از داده های شبکه ای مرکز ملی پیش بینی محیطی و تحقیقات جوی امریکا( ncep/ncar )با تفکیک مکانی 2.5*2.5 درجه طول و عرض قوسی ودر محدوده مکانی°40 غربی-°70 شرقی و °10-°60 شمالی مورد استفاده قرار گرفت. استفاده از روش خوشه بندی و تکنیک وارد، دو گروه مجزا از آرایش توپوگرافی تراز میانی جو برای روزهای مورد مطالعه را بدست آورد که اولی با تعداد روزهای غالب حاکی از تاثیرپذیری کل محدوده از فعالیت موج های متوالی فرود بلند مدیترانه و دومی حاکی از غالبیت پرارتفاع جنب حاره (روزهای گرم سال)می باشد. با به کارگیری روش گرافیکی من کندال مشخص گردید که تراز میانی جو به ویژه در دهه آخر دوره مورد مطالعه به شکل معنی داری افزایش یافته است. این افزایش برای ماه های تابستانی نیز معنی داری بوده وتنها در ماه های پاییزی روند خاصی از تغییرات در این تراز ملاحظه نگردید.  افزایش تراز میانی جو می تواند منجر به کاهش ناپایداری و وقوع بارش به ویژه در ماههای تابستانی و زمستانی و تشدید روند افزایش دما در سطح زمین در محدوده مورد مطالعه گردد.

Analysis and clustering of Changes on the Atmospheric Middle-Level in Recent Decades

Changes in the atmospheric circulation patterns behavior, such as abnormal patterns on the atmospheric middle and other levels, are known as indicators of climate change and global warming. To assess timely changes of the atmospheric middlelevel altitude, the mean monthly and annual data of this altitude for the years 1972 to 2016 were obtained from the National Center for Atmospheric Prediction (NCEP) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) (NCEP/NCAR) with a spatial resolution of 2.5 × 2.5 degrees of arc length and width, and in the spatial range of 40 (west) to 70 (east) degrees and 1060 degrees north. Two separate groups of the topographic arrangement of the atmospheric middlelevel were obtained for the studied days, after applying the Cluster analysis and the Ward method: the first group shows the effect of consecutive waves activity of the Mediterranean long through on the whole range, and the second group represents the dominance of subtropical highaltitude (hot days of the year). The MannKendall graphical method showed that the atmospheric middlelevel altitude has been increased significantly, especially in the last decade of the study period. This increase was significant for the summer months, whereas there were no particular changes in this level only in the autumn months. Inconstancy and precipitation especially in the summer and winter months and also exacerbating the groundsurface temperature (GST) in the studied area can be due to an increase in the atmospheric middlelevel. Introduction: Investigating the behavior of atmospheric circulation during different periods can broaden our knowledge of largescale changes in the climate. Based on recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessments, the increase in greenhouse gases and other human activities will lead to the warming of the troposphere, atmosphere temperature drop, thickening of tropopause, less atmospheric circulation activity in the tropics, migration of atmospheric disturbance from poles toward middle latitudes, increasing of precipitation in tropical areas, etc. Since the middlelevel atmosphere has the greatest effect on the occurrence of atmospheric phenomena in the surface of the earth, many studies have investigated the temporal and spatial changes of this level across the world. Most of these studies confirm the changes in the geopotential height anomalies at 500 hPa in some areas and identify them useful in forecasting temperature and precipitation variables, as well as phenomena such as flood and frost. Methods and Materials: This study explored changes at 500 hPa using daily data of the US National Center for Atmospheric Research for the period from 1972 to 2015. Using cluster analysis, the behavioral patterns at 500 hPa were analyzed for a 44year period, and the MannKendall graphical test was used to identify the trend of change and its significance. Results and Discussion: The clustering results show two main longterm patterns in middlelevel atmosphere. In the first group with more days, the domination of the Mediterranean high landing over a large part of the study area and the its penetration toward Iran is noteworthy, whereas in the second group with far less days, there is the dominance of the subtropical high with one of its bulges over a vast area of Iran, which leads to sustainability and hot air in the warm days of the year. The analysis of the trend of changes in the middlelevel atmosphere height using the MannKendall method indicates significant changes in the study area during the period; with the significant increase being recorded for the last decade (after 2000) during the annual period and in the summer months of July and August. These results also showed no significant trends in the autumn, especially in October and November, either individually or collectively. Conclusion: One of the results of climate change is the change in atmospheric patterns such as sea level pressure and the height of different layers of the atmosphere. The results show that the middlelevel atmosphere height, which is a key components in atmospheric disturbances and precipitation, or lack thereof, especially in regions such as Iran, has experienced increase in various periods and throughout the statistical period under study. This height increase can lead to a decrease in rainfall and an increase in the duration and severity of droughts in these areas. On the other hand, occurrence of extreme temperature and precipitation anomalies in these areas is another result of this height increase. A suitable solution for dealing with its adverse effects is the optimal management of water resources.