مقایسه آثار سیاست افزایش قیمت آب و اجرای روش آبیاری تحت فشار بر الگوی کشت کشاورزان شهرستان ارزوئیه با استفاده از برنامه ریزی ریاضی مثبت

ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﻧﺰوﻻت ﺟﻮی و اﺳﺘﺤﺼﺎل ﺑﯽروﯾﻪ از ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب زﯾﺮزﻣﯿﻨﯽ ﺟﻠﮕﻪ ارزوﺋﯿﻪ ﺳﺒﺐ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات ﺷﺪﯾﺪ در ﻧﻈﺎم ﺑﻬﺮهﺑﺮداری از ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﻫﺪف اﯾﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ، ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ و ﻣﻘﺎﯾﺴﻪ اﻟﮕﻮی ﮐﺸﺖ و ﺳﻮدﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﮐﺸﺎورزان در دو ﺣﺎﻟﺖ ﻧﺎﺷﯽ از اﺟﺮای ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﻗﯿﻤﺖ آب و ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ اﺟﺮای ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ آﺑﯿﺎری ﺗﺤﺖ ﻓﺸﺎر در ﺳﻄﺢ ﻣﺰارع ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎن ارزوﺋﯿﻪ از ﺗﻮاﺑﻊ اﺳﺘﺎن ﮐﺮﻣﺎن اﺳﺖ. ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﻗﯿﻤﺖ آب )اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﻫﺰﯾﻨﻪ اﺳﺘﺤﺼﺎل آب( ﺗﺤﺖ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎی 25، 50، 75و 100درﺻﺪ در ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺷﺪ. ﺑﺮای ﺗﺤﻘﻖ اﯾﻦ اﻫﺪاف، از ﻣﺪل ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪرﯾﺰی رﯾﺎﺿﯽ ﻣﺜﺒﺖ، اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺷﺪ. دادهﻫﺎی ﻣﻮرد ﻧﯿﺎز ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از روش ﻧﻤﻮﻧﻪ ﮔﯿﺮی ﺗﺼﺎدﻓﯽ ﺳﺎده و ﺗﮑﻤﯿﻞ 100ﭘﺮﺳﺶﻧﺎﻣﻪ د ر ﺳﺎل زراﻋﯽ 1400-1401، ﺟﻤﻊآوری ﮔﺮدﯾﺪ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﮐﻪ ﺑﺎ اﺗﺨﺎذ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﻗﯿﻤﺖ آب، ﺳﻄﺢ زﯾﺮﮐﺸﺖ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻻت ﺑﺎ ﮐﻢﺗﺮﯾﻦ آب ﻣﺼﺮﻓﯽ، اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ و دﯾﮕﺮ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻻت ﻣﻨﺘﺨﺐ، ﺑﺎ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺳﻄﺢ زﯾﺮﮐﺸﺖ ﻣﻮاﺟﻪ ﺷﺪﻧﺪ. ﺳﻮدﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﺪل ﺗﺤﺖ آﺧﺮﯾﻦ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ، 26درﺻﺪ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ و ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮر ﻫﻢ زﻣﺎن، آب ﻣﺼﺮﻓﯽ ﺑﻪ ﻣﯿﺰان 10 /5درﺻﺪ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﯾﺎﻓﺖ. ﻣﻘﺎﯾﺴﻪ اﯾﻦ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ ﺑﺎ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ اﺟﺮای ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ آﺑﯿﺎری ﻗﻄﺮهای ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﮐﻪ اﺟﺮای اﯾﻦ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ آﺑﯿﺎری ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻄﺢ ﻣﺸﺎﻫﺪه ﺷﺪه، ﺳﻮدﻧﺎﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻣﺪل را ﺑﻪ ﻣﯿﺰان 30 /75درﺻﺪ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ و آب ﻣﺼﺮﻓﯽ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻻت ﻣﻨﺘﺨﺐ را ﺑﻪ ﻣﯿﺰان 210درﺻﺪ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﯽدﻫﺪ.

comparison of the effects of the policy of increasing the price of water and the implementation of the pressure irrigation method on the cultivation pattern of the farmers of erzuye city by using positive mathematical programming.

since water is one of the most important factors affecting the production and performance of agricultural products, the efficient management of this scarce resource is considered one of the important fields of agricultural development. the purpose of this research is to analyze and compare the cultivation pattern and the gross profit of farmers in two cases due to the implementation of price and non price water policies and the implementation of pressure irrigation system in the fields of erzuye city, one of kerman province. irrigation water price policy (increase in water extraction cost) was considered under scenarios of 25, 50, 75 and 100 percent. to achieve these goals, the positive mathematical programming model was used. in order to achieve practical results, production function with constant elasticity of substitution and non linear cost function were added to this model. the required data were collected using simple random sampling method and completing 100 questionnaires in the crop year of 1401 1400. the obtained results showed that with the adoption of the water price policy, the cultivated area of the crops with the least water consumption increased and other selected products faced a decrease in the cultivated area. under the last scenario, the gross profit of the model decreased by 26% and at the same time the water consumption decreased by 10.5%. comparing showed that the implementation of this irrigation system compared to the observed level, increases the net profit of the model by 30.75% and reduces the water consumption of selected crops by 210%