Predictive Power For Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Using Dynamic Change of Metabolic Syndrome,Dynamic Change of Fasting Plasma Glucose,Metabolic Syndrome and Fasting Plasma Glucose

Background: the aim was to compare the predictive power for type 2 diabetes mellitus (t2dm) using dynamic change (difference) of metabolic syndrome (ms),difference of fasting plasma glucose (fpg),baseline ms and fpg in cohort study. methods: overall,3461 subjects were recruited from prevention of multiple metabolic disorders and ms in jiangsu of china study with 3.8 years follow-up. cox proportional-hazards regression and receiver operating characteristic were used to evaluate the predictive power for t2dm using difference ms,difference of fpg,baseline ms and fpg. results: adjusted relative risk (arr 5.24,95% ci 4.28-6.42) of difference of fpg to t2dm was highest than other. difference of fpg owns the largest auc (0.89,p<0.05),the highest sensitivity (96.25%) and specificity (80.49%) demonstrating that difference of fpg can provide strongest predictive information to t2dm,difference of ms comes second. between fpg related tools,sensitivity of difference of fpg almost was twice than baseline fpg(96.25% vs. 54.38%) suggesting that using baseline fpg would missed found 46% t2dm patients. among ms related indicators,sensitivity of difference of ms almost was twice than baseline ms (sensitivity 66.25% vs. 39.38%) suggesting that using baseline would missed found 61% t2dm patients. conclusion: dynamic change of fpg had the highest predictive power for t2dm in chinese than dynamic change of ms,baseline ms and fpg.