Estimating the Lifetime and Age-Conditional Risk of an HIV Diagnosis in Iran, 2011-2015

Background: according to the importance of infectious diseases, especially hiv, the purpose of this study was to estimate lifetime and age-conditional risks of hiv diagnosis in iran. methods: we used vital statistics, hiv surveillance and census data for 2011-2015 to calculate age-specific hiv diagnosis and non-hiv death rates. these rates then converted to the probability of an hiv diagnosis considering the competing risk. finally, the probabilities were applied to a hypothetical cohort of 10 million live births. the lifetime and age-conditional risk of hiv diagnosis in the total and general population of iran were calculated by dev can software (version 6.7.4). results: lifetime risk was 0.084% (95% ci: 0.081-0.088) or one in 1183 for females and 0.21% (95% ci: 0.201- 0.211) or one in 483 for males in the total population. in the general population lifetime risk for men was 0.069% (95% ci: 0.066-0.072) or 1 in 1454 men and 0.066% (95%ci: 0.063-0.069) or one in 1523 for women. in the total and general population, the 10-yr age-conditional risk of hiv diagnosis showed that the highest risk of an hiv diagnosis is related to 30-yr -olds. conclusion: the estimated risks differed based on gender, age, and type of population. paying close attention to these differences is critical for infection control planning and policies.