Port capacity forecasting and the impact of the dredging works on port sea operations using discrete event simulation

Continuous capacity expansion is vital for ports to handle future growth due to the increase in volume of maritime transport and size of the vessels. some improvements and developments are required for the port to enhance its capacity throughput. in order to accommodate huge vessels without any restrictions,there is a need to deepen the channels. furthermore,there is also need to widen the channel to prevent congestions. however,dredging work for deepening the harbour waters will reduce the utilization of the berths and navigational areas. this will significantly affect the port capacity and hence its income. in this paper a simulation program based on queuing theory and discrete event simulation is developed and used for forecasting port throughput and simulating dredging conditions. data from a container port and an automatic identification system (ais) were utilised to develop the simulation program in matlab-simulink. using this tool,port capacity was simulated and the effect of dredging on port capacity was studied. an appropriate period of time needed for dredging is determined by taking into considerations the blocking of some berths and limiting the number of vessels passing the channels during the dredging operations. the results from the simulations could then be used for planning the dredging works. © 2016 penerbit utm press. all rights reserved.