determinants of profitability of the insurance industry: an application of the tvp-dma model

Today, insurance is an integral part of the financial system of any country. insurance companies, as important financial institutions in the capital market, in addition to hedging risks, also play the role of financial intermediaries. as for-profit institutions, these companies must achieve profitability by performing these two roles. for this purpose, this study was conducted quarterly using the tvp-dma model to identify the factors determining the profitability of the iranian insurance industry during the years 1390 to 1401. the results showed that the variables of financial leverage, exchange rate, and premium growth are the most influential variables affecting the performance of the iranian insurance industry, respectively. the results also show that the way and probability of affecting the performance of these variables on the performance of the insurance industry is not constant over time and is influenced by factors such as the jcpoa agreement, withdrawal from the jcpoa, the continuation of the privatization process, the elimination of the insurance industry value-added tax and changes in the statutes of insurance companies, the announcement of the formation of the general fund for natural disaster insurance, and the use of the capital market capacities of the insurance industry.