تاثیر ترتیبات نظام‌های پولی بر شاخص بهای کالاها و خدمات مصرفی در کشورهای منطقه خاورمیانه و شمال آفریقا

هدف: هدف اصلی این مطالعه بررسی تاثیر ترتیبات نظام‌های پولی بر شاخص بهای کالاها و خدمات مصرفی در 19 کشور منطقه خاورمیانه و شمال آفریقا طی سا‌‌ل‌های 2020-1985 است. روش: روش مورد استفاده جهت تخمین تداوم و بقای نظام‌های پولی رهیافت مدل‌های دوره‌ای بوده و در مرحله بعد به روش الگوی غیرخطی چرخشی مارکوف محیط‌های تورمی استخراج شده است. در نهایت مدل اصلی تحقیق به روش تخمین‌زننده میانگین گروهی تخمین زده شده است. یافته‌ها: نتایج برآورد مدل نشان می‌دهد متغیر نرخ تورم تاثیر منفی و تشکیل سرمایه ثابت ناخالص و درجه بازبودن اقتصاد تاثیر منفی و معنادار بر ماندگاری ترتیبات نظام‌های پولی در مدل‌های دوره‌ای داشته اند. علاوه بر این، قرارگرفتن در محیط تورمی آرام و ملایم منجر به کاهش درجه عبور نرخ ارز یا آثار انتقالی تغییرات نرخ موثر اسمی ارز بر شاخص بهای کالاها و خدمات مصرفی در این گروه از کشورها شده و بقا و ماندگاری نظام‌های پولی نیز عبور نرخ ارز زا تقلیل نموده است. نتیجه‌گیری: با عنایت به تاثیرگذاری منفی و معنادار ماندگاری ترتیبات نظام پولی بر شاخص بهای کالاها و خدمات مصرفی در کشورهای منطقه خاورمیانه و شمال آفریقا، پیشنهاد می‌شود، سیاستگذاران پولی و ارزی در این گروه از کشورها ضمن کنترل نرخ تورم از طریق اتخاذ نظام پولی هدف‌گذاری تورمی و کاهش انحراف‌‌‍‌های تورمی به کاهش آثار انتقالی نرخ ارز بر قیمت کالاهای داخلی کمک نمایند.

the effect of monetary policy arrangements on the consumer price index in the middle east and north africa countries

objective: the impacts of monetary arrangements on the general level of prices in the international finance literature have been theoretically considered by economists and have been an important part of empirical studies in recent years. therefore, the main purpose of this article is to investigate the effect of the survival of monetary systems on the consumer price index as an indirect degree of exchange rate pass-through in 19 mena countries during the period of 1985-2020.method: for this purpose, at first, the duration of monetary arrangement is estimated using the survival models approach such as cox semi-parametric and other non-parametric models with different distributions, and in the next step, by markov switching approach, low and high inflationary environments are extracted in two regimes, one regime (low inflationary environment with inflation less than mean of inflation) and another regime (high inflationary environment with inflation greater than the mean of inflation). it is mentioned that the inflationary environment with two regimes has been preferred to the inflationary environment with three regimes according to the statistical criterion such as aic. finally, prior to the empirical model estimation, the utilization of first generation against second-generation unit root tests have tested by friedman, frees and pesaran tests and at the final step, the empirical model of the research has been estimated by pooled mean group estimator (pmg) method as one of the main co-integrating techniques while the variables order of integration are zero and one.results: at first step, the survival and non-survival of monetary arrangements were estimated by using of parametric methods and different distributions, and then by markov switching model of inflationary environments in both low and high conditions for this group of countries has been estimated and the years in which the countries were in two regimes were identified. the results of estimating the empirical model showed that the null hypothesis that the risk is proportionate and the use of the cox method in comparisons with other parametric methods was rejected at a significant level of 5%, and therefore alternative parametric methods such as weibull distribution, normal logarithm, etc. are proper for estimating the survival of monetary arrangements. next, in order to choose the appropriate distribution in parametric patterns among the weibull distributions; exponential, gamma, gompertz, generalized gamma and logarithm-normal akaike information criterion was used due to a large number of observations (680 observations) and the value of akaike test statistic for the weibull distribution is -2403.14 and less than other distributions values. in addition,the results of monetary arrangement survival estimation by weibull distribution showed that the variables of degree of openness and gross capital formation have a negative and significant effect on the risk of exiting the monetary system, and with an increase of one unit of the degree of openness of the economy and formation of gross domestic fixed capital, respectively, 0.007 and 0.04 units of the durability period or the survival of monetary systems increases or the risk of exiting monetary systems decreases. also, with an increase of one unit in the inflation rate, the survival of monetary systems in this group of countries decreases by 0.29 units or the risk of exiting monetary arrangements increases. moreover, the probability of survival or the duration of monetary arrangements in the mena region has increased from 0.9722 in 1985 to 0.014 in 2020 and the probability of its non-survival has increased from 0.0278 to about 0.986 in 2020. the results for the estimation of an inflationary environment indicated that there is no linear relationship in the inflation rate was rejected at the significant levels of 5 and 10%, and therefore, we used the markov switching nonlinear method to extract the