بررسی اثر اعتماد بر رشد اقتصادی در کشورهای توسعه‌ یافته و درحال‌ توسعه (رویکرد گشتاورهای تعمیم‌ یافته (gmm))

هدف: بررسی تاثیر شاخص اعتماد بر رشد اقتصادی در کشورهای منتخب در دو گروه کشورهای توسعه‌یافته و درحال‌ توسعه در دوره زمانی 2019-2009. روش: جهت تحقق این هدف، ابتدا شاخص اعتماد از طرح نظرسنجی ارزشی جهان استخراج شد. سپس با استفاده از مدل گشتاورهای عمومی تعمیم‌یافته (gmm) تاثیر شاخص اعتماد بر رشد اقتصادی مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. متغیر تاخیری تولید ناخالص داخلی به قیمت ثابت، تشکیل سرمایه ثابت، شاخص توسعه انسانی، نرخ تورم مصرف‌کننده، شاخص نوآوری، تعداد نیروی کار، شاخص آزادی اقتصادی و شاخص باز بودن تجاری در کنار شاخص اعتماد به مدل اضافه شده است. یافته‌ها: نتایج نشان می‌دهد تمامی متغیرهای توضیحی در سطح ایستا و آزمون کائو نیز حاکی از وجود رابطه بلندمدت بین متغیرها و رشد اقتصادی است. نتیجه‌گیری: بر اساس نتایج به دست آمده شاخص اعتماد در کشورهای توسعه‌یافته اثر مثبت و معناداری بر رشد اقتصادی دارد ولی در کشورهای درحال‌توسعه در سطح معنا‌داری 90 درصد تاثیر منفی بر رشد اقتصادی این گروه از کشورها دارد که از جمله دلایل آن پایین بودن کیفیت داده‌ها و مهم‌تر سطح اعتماد در این کشورها است. بهبود شفافیت و یکپارچگی نهادها یکی از مهم‌ترین سیاست‌های افزایش اعتماد در جوامع است و لازم است سیاست‌های کشورهای درحال‌توسعه به سمت این استراتژی سوق داده شوند. همچنین اجرای برنامه‌های آموزشی که تاکید اصلی بر کار مشترک گروهی دانش آموزان دارد و باعث تقویت همکاری بین نسل‌های جدید، افزایش سرمایه اجتماعی و درنتیجه افزایش اعتماد عمومی می‌شود نیز در سیاست‌های این کشورها مورد توجه قرار گیرد.

investigating the effect of trust on economic growth in developed and developing countries (generalized method of moments (gmm))

objective: according to studies, one of the main determinants of economic growth and development is social capital, which has different components. one of the main components of social capital is trust, which is an essential aspect of economic and social relations. trust means as a positive expectation that the other party will not act opportunistically in their speech, actions and decisions. the result of some researches shows the difference between countries in terms of their industrial structure depends more on the level of their social capital than on the level of their developmental level, i.e., the degree of trust of individuals in one society to another and their participation in the formation of civic groups and associations. emphasizing the importance of the role of trust in economic growth and to answer the question of whether the trust index in developing countries affects economic growth in a similar way to developed countries, the main purpose of this study is to show the trust index on economic growth in the twoselected groups of developed and developing countries in the period 20092019. methods: to achieve this goal in this study, the trust index was first extracted from the world value survey. then, to investigate the relationship between trust and innovation with economic growth in two selected groups of developed and developing countries, the twostage generalized method of moments (gmm) model has been used for dynamic panel data. applying the gmm method has some advantages such as considering individual non homogeneous and more information, eliminating the biases in crosssectional regressions. for a more detailed study of these indicators in addition to other effective control variables that are considered as factors affecting the economic growth and development of countries, are also added to the regression equation.  delayed variables of gdp at real price, fixed capital formation, human development index, consumer inflation rate, innovation index, number of labor force, economic freedom index and trade openness index along with confidence index have been added to the model. the statistical population of the present study includes 26 developing countries including: islamic republic of iran, belarus, brazil, colombia, ecuador, egypt, guatemala, indonesia, iraq, jordan, kazakhstan, kyrgyzstan, lebanon, malaysia, mexico, nigeria, pakistan, peru, philippines, russia, serbia, thailand, tunisia, turkey, ukraine and vietnam and 25 developed countries including: argentina, australia, canada, chile, cyprus, estonia, finland, france, germany, hong kong, china, hungary, italy, japan , korea, netherlands, new zealand, norway, poland, romania, singapore, slovenia, spain, sweden, switzerland and the united states from 2009 to 2019 (statistics are available by year). these countries were grouped based on the human development index so that countries with a human development index higher than 0/8 in the group of developed countries and less than 0/8 in the group of developing countries. results: in both group of selected countries, the significance level of sargan statistics is more than 0.05. at the 95% confidence level, the validity of the tools used in the estimation cannot be denied. so, the null hypothesis that the instruments of the disturbance are not correlated cannot be rejected. therefore, it can be concluded that the instrumental variables used for estimation have the necessary validity. also, the results show that all explanatory variables have unit root and the kau test indicates a longterm relationship between variables and economic growth. according to the results, in countries with low levels of development, the variables related to the physical relations of production mainly affect economic growth. also, the effect of the trust index on the economic growth of these countries is negative. in developed countries, as expected, the impact of the trust index on economic growth is positive.