سنجش تاثیر سیاست‌های بخش عمومی بر فرار مالیاتی در ایران و کشورهای منتخب

هدف: فرار مالیاتی به هرگونه تلاش غیرقانونی برای پرداخت نکردن مالیات اطلاق می‌شود. عوامل متعددی بر فرار مالیاتی تاثیر گذارند. یکی از مهمترین این عوامل، سیاست‌های بخش عمومی است. لذا در این پژوهش، با استفاده از روش رگرسیونی پانل دیتا، تاثیر سیاست‌های بخش عمومی بر فرار مالیاتی در ایران و کشورهای منتخب نوظهور در دوره زمانی 2020-2000 مطالعه شده است. روش: برای برآورد مدل از روش پانل دیتا استفاده شده است. یافته‌ها: نتایج برآورد مدل نشان می‌‌دهد که تاثیر حقوق مالکیت بر فرار مالیاتی منفی و معنادار بوده و تضمین مالکیت شخصی توسط دولت، میزان فرار مالیاتی را کاهش داده است. علاوه‌براین، حاکمیت قانون تاثیر منفی و معنادار بر فرار مالیاتی دارد. زیرا بالا بودن حاکمیت قانون، اطمینان افراد به اجرای قاطع قوانین بویژه قوانین مالیاتی را بالا برده و احتمال فرار مالیاتی را کاهش می‌دهد. تاثیر متغیر دین (درصد جمعیت مسلمان)، آزادی اقتصادی و درجه توسعه یافتگی کشورها بر فرار مالیاتی منفی بوده و در مقابل، نرخ بیکاری و درآمد سرانه بر فرار مالیاتی تاثیر مثبت دارند. تاثیر هزینه های دولت و متغیر سهم بخش کشاورزی (درصد از gdp) بر فرار مالیاتی نیز مثبت بوده اما به لحاظ آماری معنادار نیست. نتیجه‌گیری: بالا بودن حقوق مالکیت و حاکمیت قانون در دوره زمانی 2020-2000، فرار مالیاتی در کشورهای مورد‌مطالعه را کاهش داده است.

assessing the impact of public sector policies on tax evasion in iran and selected countries

objective: governments need financial resources to play their role in the economy and to produce and supply public goods. one of the most efficient sources of finance in the public sector economy is taxation. taxes are doubly important in developing countries, which are always short of physical and economic infrastructure. however, government revenue sources or the share of taxes in total public revenues vary from country to country, depending on their level of development and economic structure. but tax evasion is seen as a sharp drop in government revenue that discourages the government from providing current public services due to a reduction in government revenue from public revenue.tax evasion refers to any illegal attempt to evade taxes. numerous factors affect tax evasion. one of the most important factors is public sector policies. therefore, in this study, using the data panel regression method, the effect of public sector policies on tax evasion in iran and selected emerging countries in the period 2000-2020 has been studied.governments need financial resources to play their role in the economy and to produce and supply public goods.governments need financial resources to play their role in the economy and in the production and supply of public goods. one of the most efficient sources of finance in the public sector economy is taxation. one of the most effective sources of finance in a public sector economy is taxation. method: in this study, the effect of public sector policies on tax evasion in iran and in selected emerging countries in the period 2000 to 2020 has been studied. the conceptual model of the research is as follows, in which tax evasion depends on variables related to government (rule of law, open markets, size of government and quality of legislation), tax modi (religious beliefs) and tax organization (public sector governance). thus, in this study, the regression model of research has been used by modifying the model of islam et al (2020) and considering the effect of the degree of development of countries on tax evasion. unemployment, per capita income and government expenditure based on the study of rezagholizadeh et al (2019) and value added of the agricultural sector based on the study of ziyatbar ahmadi and karimi petanlar (2019) are included in the research model. also, the effect of property rights, the quality of public sector governance and the variable of religion based on the research of islam et al (2020) were considered as explanatory variables in the model. to estimate the model, the dynamic data panel method is used and first the research regression model is proposed and then how to measure its variables is presented. in the following, the data related to the model are extracted from the new rahavard software and the desired model is estimated using eviews 9.0 software. before estimating the model, the static variables of the model are checked using unit root tests. because if the model variables are anonymous, the estimated regressions are fake and have lower reliability. if the data were consistent, there would be no problem in the model estimation process. but if the data are anonymous, the aggregation between the model variables should be examined to study the existence or absence of an equilibrium and longterm relationship between the model variables.results: the results of model estimation show that the effect of property rights on tax evasion is negative and significant and the guarantee of personal property by the government has reduced the rate of tax evasion. in addition, the rule of law has a significant negative impact on tax evasion. because the rule of law is high, it increases people’s confidence in the strict implementation of laws, especially tax laws, and reduces the possibility of tax evasion.