تحلیل تاثیر متغیرهای نهادی بر ساختار اقتصاد کلان ایران (با تاکید بر شاخص آزادی اقتصادی)

هدف: کشورهای درحال‌توسعه صاحب منابع طبیعی، با چالش‌هایی برای تبدیل ثروت حاصل به سایر اشکال دارایی که توسعه اقتصادی به همراه داشته ‌باشد، روبرو هستند. در دیدگاه نهادی این چالش‌ها ناشی از شکل‌گیری نهادهای نامناسب است. درآمد منابع طبیعی می‌تواند تغییراتی نهادی در ساختار اقتصادی این کشورها ایجادکند که مانع دستیابی به پیشرفت اقتصادی شود. در این مقاله تلاش‌شده مدل ساختاری اقتصادکلان ایران با لحاظ‌ متغیر نهادی برآورد گردد. روش: این بررسی براساس تحلیل داده‌های سری‌زمانی دوره 1398- 1349 با روش‌ گشتاورهای تعمیم‌یافته gmm است. یافته‌ها: نتایج نشان می‌دهد بهبود کیفیت نهادها افزایش تولید ملی و کاهش حجم‌نقدینگی را همراه‌داشته‌‌است. برآورد تابع نهادی نشان‌می‌دهد افزایش درآمد ملی موجب بهبود نهادهای کشور و افزایش سایر متغیرها مانند اندازه‌ دولت، درآمد نفتی، حجم‌ نقدینگی و تورم موجب تخریب وضعیت نهادی کشور شده‌اند. نتیجه‌گیری: گسترش دولت به‌دلیل رانت درآمد نفتی در اختیارش یکی از تاثیرگزارترین عوامل تخریب نهادی است. لذا یکی از عمده‌ترین اهداف دولت باید کاهش وابستگی به درآمد نفت و کاهش اندازه دولت باشد. دولت می‌بایست سهم بزرگ‌تری از درآمد نفت را در حساب ذخیره ‌ارزی، ذخیره‌سازی نماید تا ضمن انتقال این ثروت ملی به نسل‌های‌آینده، مشکلات ناشی از رانت نفتی در کشور حداقل شود.

analyzing impact of institutional variables on iran’s macroeconomic structure (with an emphasis on economic freedom indictor)

objective: experience of countries with different institutional structures shows that they achieved different development goals. this phenomenon is doubly important in countries with natural resources, such as oil. there are differences in the theoretical and experimental results of the effects of the abundance of natural resources on the growth rate of a developing economy. while some oilexporting countries have high economic growth, in others implementation of development policies has not only strengthened economic growth, but also further problems such as inadequate resource allocation, increased consumption, waste of resources, economic corruption, government budget imbalances occurred. oil revenues in high institutional quality countries controlled by the macroeconomic structure; however, in countries with low institutional quality, it destroys the macroeconomic structure, which occurs in the turmoil of important economic variables.this article seeks to investigate the twoway effect of economically significant variables and institutional variables on each other. in this regard, first, a macroeconomic model for a developing country that exports a product introduced, and then this model modified based on theoretical considerations and the main features of the iranian economy. given that, economic freedom is a good indicator for measuring the institutional quality of countries, it used as an alternative to institutional framework. the economic freedom index of the fraser institute implemented as an endogenous institutional variable in the model. method: this study is based on the analysis of time series data for the period of 19722020 in iran. the fact that improving income in a country may improve institutions internalizes the institutional structure, leading to measurement error, inverse causality, and false correlation, and will distort the model estimation. in such a condition, appropriate econometric methods must be implemented to eliminate these problems. one of the suitable econometric methods to reduce the problem of endogenousity of institutional indicators and correlations between institutional variables and other explanatory variables is gmm (generalize method of moments), which implemented in this article. the model has seven main equations for different economic sectors and subindexes of economic freedom implemented in different equations based on the compatibility with that equation. results: consumption function estimation shows that past consumption level has a large effect on current consumption, which confirms the effect of consumption function gears. the positive relationship between consumption and interest rates shows that an increase in interest rates, increases consumption, which is a result of the increasing inflation in the country. the institutional index of healthy (stable) money includes liquidity growth, freedom of ownership of foreign currencies, current inflation rate and inflation change in the last five years and has had a negative effect on consumption. in the investment equation, size of government, national income and interest rates had the greatest impact on investment, respectively. the negative exchange rate coefficient is due to the relationship between the exchange rate and investment, which can be attributed to the fact that in oilrich countries such as iran, the bulk of imported capital goods and rising exchange rates make capital goods more expensive and reduce investment. in the export function, foreign income has the greatest effect and a significant relationship between exports and relative prices confirmed. in this equation, the effect of the institutional variable is significant, which confirms the researcher’s views. according to the results, low export price elasticity and high export revenue elasticity in iran can be justified.