عوامل موثر بر اشتغال در صنایع کارخانه‌ای کشور

هدف: هدف از این مقاله تجزیه و تحلیل عوامل موثر بر اشتغال در صنایع کارخانه‌ای کشور به تفکیک کدهای دو رقمی isicدارای 10 نفر کار کن و بیشتر در طی دوره 1394-1375 است. موضوع اشتغال و کاهش بیکاری یکی از اساسی‌ترین نیازهای یک جامعه تلقی می‌شود. اشتغال بر متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی از جمله تولید، مصرف، سرمایه‌گذاری، اشتغال، و صادرات دارد. اشتغال و عوامل موثر بران یکی از متغیرهای مهم اقتصاد کلان است ایجاد فرصت‌های شغلی جدید و افزایش اشتغال، یکی از مهم‌ترین مسائل برنامه‌ریزان و سیاست‌گذاران اقتصادی محسوب می‌گردد. شناسائی عوامل موثر بر اشتغال از مسائل مهم اقتصاد ایران محسوب می‌گردد که صنایع کارخانه‌ای یکی از بخش‌های است که در فرآیند ایجاد اشتغال و افزایش آن اهمیت زیادی دارد. روش: در این تحقیق از آمار و اطلاعات صنایع کارخانه‌ای دارای 10 نفر کارکن و بیشتر به تفکیک کدهای دو رقمی isic در دوره 13941375 و روش پانل دیتا و برآوردگر حداقل مربعات تعمیم یافته استفاده شده است. یافته‌ها: موضوع اشتغال و کاهش بیکاری یکی از اساسی‌ترین نیازهای یک جامعه تلقی است و بیکاری یکی از پدیده‌های مخرب اجتماعی، اقتصادی و فرهنگی محسوب می‌شود که رفع آن یکی از اولویت‌های اساسی در هر کشوری است. اشتغال بخش صنعت، در سال‌های اخیر به‌دلیل اعمال مجدد تحریم‌ها و افزایش نرخ ارز و وابستگی بالایی که این بخش به واردات کالای سرمایه‌ای و واسطه‌ای دارد مورد تهدید قرار گرفته است و وضعیت اشتغال در این بخش را تضعیف نموده که خود سبب کاهش تقاضا نیروی کار تمام وقت گردیه و سهم اشتغال ناقص در بازار کار افزایش داده است. با عنایت با این‌که یکی از عوامل موثر بر افزایش اشتغال در صنایع کارخانه‌ای ایران افزایش تولید است دولت باید بر مبارزه با قاچاق کالاها و توسعه فضای رقابتی جهت گسترش فعالیت‌های صنعتی و در نهایت افزایش تقاضا برای تولیدات صنعتی تاکید بیشتری داشته باشد تا زمینه را برای افزایش تولید صنعتی مهیا نماید و از آن طریق تقاضای نیروی کار افزایش یابد. با توجه به اثر مثبت موجودی سرمایه بر اشتغال در صنایع کارخانه‌ای 22 گانه دارای 10 نفر کارکن و بیشتر ضرورت دارد جهت افزایش اشتغال، سیاست‌های اتخاذ گردد که منجر به افزایش سرمایه‌گذاری در صنایع کارخانه‌ای گردد تا از طریق افزایش موجودی سرمایه، اشتغال نیز افزایش یابد. نتیجه‌گیری: متوسط سهم اشتغال صنایع کارخانه‌ای 22 گانه دارای 10 نفر کارکن و بیشتر نیز نشان می‌دهد بخش‌های صنایع مواد غذایی و آشامیدنی، تولید سایر محصولات کانی غیرفلزی، تولید منسوجات، تولید وسایل نقلیۀ موتوری و تریلر و نیم تریلر، تولید فلزات اساسی و صنایع تولید مواد و محصولات شیمیایی دارای بیشترین سهم در اشتغال هستند. کشش تقاضای نیروی کار در صنایع کارخانه‌ای 22 گانه دارای 10 نفر کارکن و بیشتر نسبت به دستمزد از 0.22، کشش تقاضای نیروی کار نسبت به تولید برابر از 0.58 و کشش تقاضای نیروی کار نسبت به موجودی سرمایه نیز 0.12 است.

Factors Affecting Employment in Manufacturing Industries of Iran

Objective: This article seeks to identify the factors affecting employment in Iran’s manufacturing industries during the period 19962015. Employment is one of the main channels affecting the performance of the economy, the changes of which will affect production, imports, exports, competition, and investment.Considering that the manufacturing industry plays an important role in creating valueadded and job creation in the country’s economy, this issue has caused every part of the country’s manufacturing industry to be associated with high diversity. In recent years, factory industries have experienced many fluctuations due to the domestic and international conditions governing the country’s economy, which has caused the major industries of the country to operate with less than production capacity, despite the high installed capacity.   Method: Employment and factors affecting macroeconomic factors creating new job opportunities and increasing employment is one of the most important issues for economic planners and policymakers. Identifying the factors affecting employment is one of the most important issues in the Iranian economy.   Results: In the long run and in the classical model of labor demand, the wage variable has an important role in determining the equilibrium level of employment; in addition, the variables of firm production are also effective in determining the level of employment. On the other hand, in the long run, the main factors affecting the demand for employment in the manufacturing industry are wage, output, and capital utilization variables, which can be replaced by capital stock, which is also interpreted as the substitution effects of scale. To extract the labor demand function, there are several methods by which labor demand is extracted under the same conditions. In this study, to extract the labor demand in 22 industrial sectors with 10 employees and more, we use the method presented by Varian (1978). In this method, the labor demand function can be minimized by reducing the cost function to the production function.   Conclusion: The purpose of this paper is to analyze the factors affecting employment in the manufacturing industry by dividing the twodigit ISIC codes by dividing the twodigit ISIC codes by 10 employees and moreover, the period 19962015 using a generalized panel data approach and Generalized Least Squares (GLS) estimator. The most important factor in the development of employment in manufacturing industries is the increase in production, the realization of which requires the coordination of monetary, fiscal, foreign exchange and trade policies, and extensive interaction with the global economy and attracting foreign direct investment. The results show that the elasticity of employment demand with respect to wages, production, and capital stock are 0.22, 0.58, and 0.12, respectively. Considering that one of the effective factors in increasing employment in Iran’s manufacturing industries are increasing production, it is recommended that the government place more emphasis on combating the smuggling of goods and developing a competitive environment to expand industrial activities and ultimately increase demand for industrial products. Increase industrial production and thereby increase labor demand. Considering the positive effect of capital stock on employment in the manufacturing industries, it is recommended to adopt policies to increase employment, which will lead to increased investment in factory industries to increase employment by increasing capital stock.       Objective: This article seeks to identify the factors affecting employment in Iran’s manufacturing industries during the period 19962015. Employment is one of the main channels affecting the performance of the economy, the changes of which will affect production, imports, exports, competition, and investment.Considering that the manufacturing industry plays an important role in creating valueadded and job creation in the country’s economy, this issue has caused every part of the country’s manufacturing industry to be associated with high diversity. In recent years, factory industries have experienced many fluctuations due to the domestic and international conditions governing the country’s economy, which has caused the major industries of the country to operate with less than production capacity, despite the high installed capacity. Method: Employment and factors affecting macroeconomic factors creating new job opportunities and increasing employment is one of the most important issues for economic planners and policymakers. Identifying the factors affecting employment is one of the most important issues in the Iranian economy. Results: In the long run and in the classical model of labor demand, the wage variable has an important role in determining the equilibrium level of employment; in addition, the variables of firm production are also effective in determining the level of employment. On the other hand, in the long run, the main factors affecting the demand for employment in the manufacturing industry are wage, output, and capital utilization variables, which can be replaced by capital stock, which is also interpreted as the substitution effects of scale. To extract the labor demand function, there are several methods by which labor demand is extracted under the same conditions. In this study, to extract the labor demand in 22 industrial sectors with 10 employees and more, we use the method presented by Varian (1978). In this method, the labor demand function can be minimized by reducing the cost function to the production function.       Conclusion: The purpose of this paper is to analyze the factors affecting employment in the manufacturing industry by dividing the twodigit ISIC codes by dividing the twodigit ISIC codes by 10 employees and moreover, the period 19962015 using a generalized panel data approach and Generalized Least Squares (GLS) estimator. The most important factor in the development of employment in manufacturing industries is the increase in production, the realization of which requires the coordination of monetary, fiscal, foreign exchange and trade policies, and extensive interaction with the global economy and attracting foreign direct investment. The results show that the elasticity of employment demand with respect to wages, production, and capital stock are 0.22, 0.58, and 0.12, respectively. Considering that one of the effective factors in increasing employment in Iran’s manufacturing industries are increasing production, it is recommended that the government place more emphasis on combating the smuggling of goods and developing a competitive environment to expand industrial activities and ultimately increase demand for industrial products. Increase industrial production and thereby increase labor demand. Considering the positive effect of capital stock on employment in the manufacturing industries, it is recommended to adopt policies to increase employment, which will lead to increased investment in factory industries to increase employment by increasing capital stock.