تحلیل نقش مدیریت ریسک زنجیرۀ تامین برای رسیدن صنعت خودروسازی ایران به کلاس جهانی

امروزه یکی از استراتژی‌های برتر، تولید در کلاس جهانی است که بیشتر شرکت‌های بزرگ یا به آن دست یافته‌اند و یا در حال سپری‌کردن مراحل آن‌اند؛ اما جهانی‌شدن همراه با ریسک‌هایی است که اگر در نظر گرفته نشود، نه‌تنها نتیجۀ مطلوب حاصل نمی‌شود، هزینه‌های زیادی از جنبه‌های مختلف برای سیستم‌ها به‌دنبال خواهد داشت؛ از این رو، در تحقیق حاضر سعی شد که با طراحی مدلی برای مدیریت هم‌زمان اهداف و ریسک در زنجیره تامین صنعت خودروسازی ‌(یکی از سیستم‌های اقتصادی پیشتاز)، نقش و اهمیت مدیریت ریسک برای تولید در کلاس جهانی تبیین شود. در ابتدا با بررسی پیشینۀ تحقیق، مدل‌های مختلف در زمینه‌های تولید در کلاس جهانی، ریسک و مدیریت ریسک شناسایی و موارد نزدیک‌تر به صنایع خودروسازی برای طراحی اولیۀ مدل پژوهش انتخاب شود؛ سپس به کمک روش‌های قطعی و غیرقطعی مثل معادلات ساختاری (در نرم‌افزار (amos‌‌ و روش ترکیبی دیمتل خاکستری- مجموعه‌های دستیابی و پیش‌نیاز، مدل پیشنهادی اعتبارسنجی و تحلیل شود. توجه به نتایج به دست آمده و تایید مدل اولیه از سوی خبرگان و متخصصان صنعت خودروسازی کشور ایران، به نظر می‌رسد که پیگیری هم‌زمان تولید در کلاس جهانی و ریسک‌های مربوط به آن، با روش‌ها و اعداد خاکستری، نه‌تنها لازم و ضروری بوده است،‌ ‌رعایت‌نکردن آن نیز، ‌عواقب و هزینه‌های گزافی به سیستم‌ها تحمیل می‌کند.

analyzing the role of supply chain risk management in achieving world-class status for iran’s automotive industry

purpose: in the age of globalization and fierce competition, achieving world-class manufacturing (wcm) standards is crucial for maintaining and enhancing companies’ competitive advantage. this study focuses on iran’s automotive industry, which grapples with economic challenges and rapid market fluctuations, and investigates the role of supply chain risk management (scrm) as a vital tool for attaining wcm. this research aims to develop an integrated model that effectively manages risks, facilitates the implementation of wcm principles in iran’s automotive sector, and ultimately boosts the industry’s performance and global competitiveness.design/methodology/approach: this research utilizes a mixed-methods approach, incorporating both qualitative and quantitative techniques. initially, a literature review was conducted to identify various models related to wcm, risk, and risk management, selecting those most pertinent to the automotive industry for the preliminary research model. subsequently, the proposed model was validated and analyzed using both deterministic and non-deterministic methods, including structural equation modeling (sem) in amos software and a hybrid grey dematel–interpretive structural modeling (ism) approach.findings: the results indicate that the selected factors (five risk factors and six wcm factors) exhibit significant interrelationships across five levels. according to the proposed model for iran’s automotive industry, environmental and decision-making risks, along with factors such as strategy and performance evaluation, are situated at the lowest level, while human capital and dynamic activities are positioned at the highest level. currently, factors in the fourth and fifth levels should be prioritized for enhancement. furthermore, a 20% discrepancy between the results of deterministic and non-deterministic methods employed in this study suggests that the wcm landscape in iran’s automotive industry is in a grey state (where a deterministic environment is white, a highly uncertain environment is black, and a semi-uncertain environment is grey). this underscores the necessity of integrating both deterministic and non-deterministic approaches rather than relying on one in isolation.research limitations/implications: this study primarily focuses on iran’s automotive industry, and its findings may not be generalizable to other industries or regions. additionally, limitations in data collection and the subjective nature of expert judgments in fuzzy and grey methods may introduce bias. future research could extend the model to other industries and emerging economies and incorporate real-time risk assessment tools for enhanced accuracy.practical implications: the proposed model offers a strategic roadmap for automotive manufacturers and policymakers to effectively manage supply chain risks while achieving wcm. the findings highlight the need to reduce dependence on macroeconomic government policies, enhance decision-making accuracy, and promote competitive differentiation in products. to this end, it is recommended to strengthen the private sector, advance technology, integrate artificial intelligence, and optimize processes. furthermore, employing hybrid decision-making tools is crucial for managing risks and opportunities concurrently in uncertain conditions.social implications: this research emphasizes the significance of a resilient and risk-aware supply chain for sustainable industrial growth. mitigating supply chain risks can enhance job security, economic stability, and consumer confidence. additionally, incorporating wcm principles into the industry fosters environmental sustainability by minimizing waste, inefficiencies, and energy consumption.originality/value: this study is among the first to propose an integrated wcm-scrm model for iran’s automotive industry. it adds to the body of knowledge on risk management in emerging markets and introduces an innovative methodological approach by combining fuzzy delphi, grey dematel, ism, and sem techniques. the findings will be beneficial for academics, industry professionals, and policymakers aiming to boost global competitiveness in high-risk industries.