تحلیل عوامل موثر بر افزایش سهم بیمۀ عمر و پس‌انداز با رویکرد پویایی‌شناسی سیستم‌ها

سهم بازار بیمۀ عمر و پس‌انداز از پرتفوی صنعت بیمه، یکی از معیارهای توسعه‌یافتگی کشورها به حساب می‌آید. همواره سهم این رشتۀ بیمه‌ای از حق بیمۀ تولیدی صنعت بیمه در ایران کمتر از 16درصد بوده است که در مقایسه با سهم بیش از 50درصدی در جهان بسیار پایین است. هدف از این پژوهش، استفاده از رویکرد پویایی‌شناسی سیستم برای ارائۀ مدلی پویا به‌‌منظور تحلیل فروش بیمۀ عمر و پس‌انداز، با توجه به ساختار ویژۀ اجتماعی، اقتصادی و فرهنگی جامعۀ ایران و ساختار شرکت‌های بیمه در کشور است. به این منظور، ازطریق مرور مطالعات پیشین و مصاحبه با کارشناسان صنعت بیمه، متغیرهای موثر بر فروش بیمۀ عمر و پس‌انداز در شرکت‌های بیمه و روابط متقابل بین آنها بررسی شد، سپس عوامل موثر بر مسئله شامل شرکت بیمه، شبکۀ فروش، رقبا، افراد جامعه و بیمۀ مرکزی به‌همراه متغیرهای کلیدی مربوط به آ‌نها شناسایی شد. مدل علی حلقوی و نمودار حالت-جریان سیستم فروش بیمۀ عمر و پس‌انداز در ایران با استفاده از نرم‌افزار ونسیم ترسیم، فرمول‌بندی و اعتبارسنجی شد. با شبیه‌سازی در یک افق ده‌ساله، نتایج براساس چهار سناریو مشخص و تحلیل شد. براساس نتایج، وصول حق بیمه، نرخ سرمایه‌گذاری و سودآوری ذخایر ریاضی، نرخ سرمایه‌گذاری بیمۀ مرکزی از محل درآمدهای دریافتی از بیمۀ عمر و پس‌انداز برای معرفی و آگاهی افراد جامعه از مزایای محصول، بر سهم حق بیمۀ تولیدی و تعداد بیمه‌نامۀ عمر و پس‌انداز تاثیرگذار است، برخلاف انتظار، بهرۀ بانکی تاثیر چندانی ندارد. ضمن اینکه بیمۀ مرکزی می‌تواند نقشی موثرتر از شرکت‌های بیمه بر ایجاد جذابیت این رشته در میان سهامداران شرکت بیمه، شبکۀ فروش و جامعه داشته باشد.

analyzing the factors increasing the share of life and savings insurance using a systems dynamics approach

purpose: the market share of life insurance and savings from the portfolio of the insurance industry is considered as the criteria for the development of the countries. the share of life insurance and savings in the production insurance premium of the insurance industry has always been less than 16% in iran, which is very low compared to the share of life insurance and savings in most of the countries wherein the share is more than 50%. the purpose of this research is to propose a dynamic model for analyzing the sale of life insurance and savings according to the special social, economic and cultural structure of iranian society and the structure of insurance companies in the country.design/methodology/approach: in this study, first the variables affecting the sale of life insurance and savings in insurance companies and their interrelationships have been identified by reviewing the previous studies and interviewing insurance industry experts. then, the variables including an insurance company, network sales, competitors, community members, and their items were identified. finally, the circular causal model and the state-flow diagram of the life insurance and savings sales system in iran have been drawn and validated using the system dynamics approach.findings: the results were analyzed based on four scenarios in a ten-year horizon. based on the results, it was found that insurance premium collection, investment rate and profitability of mathematical reserves, central insurance of iran investment rate regarding the income received from life insurance and savings to introduce and make people aware of the benefits of the product, affected the share of production insurance premiums and the number of life insurance policies and savings. bank interest did not have much effect on life insurance and savings. in addition, central insurance of iran could play a more effective role than the insurance companies in creating the attractiveness of this field among the insurance company’s shareholders, sales network, and society.research limitations/implications: major research limitations were the complications and lack of transparency of the regulations related to the investment of the resources received by insurance companies from the sale of life insurance and savings, as well as the lack of transparency of the investment rate regulations of the central insurance for the development of life insurance and savings from the previous restrictions.practical implications: banks and bank interest were not strong competitors for insurance companies. also, the reduction of bank interest was one of the most important factors affecting the growth of society’s willingness to buy life insurance and savings, but this factor alone could not increase production insurance premiums or other key variables. the investment profit of mathematical reserves allocated to policyholders could be used as an important advertising tool by the insurance company. increasing the profitability of reserves by investing in suitable markets increases the production insurance premium and other key and significant variables.social implications: based on the results, it is possible to increase the share of life insurance and savings by affecting social and cultural variables such as the society’s awareness of the benefits of life insurance, which shows the mutual effects of economic, social and cultural factors on the growth of the share of life insurance premiums and savings.originality/value: a dynamic model was proposed based on the mutual and dynamic effects of economic, social, cultural, and managerial factors. also, it provides an opportunity for the managers of insurance and central insurance companies to make their decisions on the numerical number of insurance policies, and the amount of production insurance premiums.