طراحی مدل برای کاهش انتشار گازهای گلخانه‌ای در بخش انرژی برق با استفاده از رویکرد تلفیقی برنامه‌ریزی خطی و پویایی‌شناسی سیستمی (مطالعۀ موردی: نیروگاه‌های برق ایران)

صنعت برق در جهان با چالش‎‍های بی‎‍شماری، نظیر افزایش تقاضا، انتشار گازهای گلخانه‎‍ای، کاهش ذخایر سوخت‌های فسیلی، شرایط اقتصادی و افزایش هزینه مواجه شده‎‍ است. این شرایط مدیران را به اتخاذ استراتژی‌هایی در تامین انرژی، با جایگزینی سوخت فسیلی با منابع انرژی تجدیدپذیر واداشته است. پیشرفت‌های تکنولوژی و تجهیزات الکترونیکی در بخش مصرف، نیاز به انرژی برق را افزایش‎‍داده و تولید برق را با توجه به نوع نیروگاه از اهمیت بیشتری برخوردار کرده‌ است. هدف عمدۀ این پژوهش، اولویت‌بندی نحوۀ تولید برق و اختصاص به بخش مصرف، برای کاهش انتشار گازهای گلخانه‌ای است. این تحقیق با استفاده از تکنیک‌های تحقیق در عملیات، به ارائۀ مدل ریاضی برای مشخص‌کردن میزان تولید انرژی برق از نیروگاه‌های مختلف با شرایط اقتصادی، فنی و زیست‌محیطی پرداخته ‌است. سپس با پویایی‌شناسی سیستمی، تخصیص انرژی برق به بخش‌های مختلف شامل خانگی، تجاری، حمل‌ونقل، صنایع و کشاورزی به‌عنوان مصرف‌کننده بررسی می‌شود. برای شبیه‌سازی و ارائۀ مدل برنامه‎‍ریزی خطی، از 10نوع نیروگاه کشور و داده‌های ترازنامۀ انرژی سال 1396 استفاده‌ شده ‌است. در مدل ریاضی با در نظر گرفتن سه متغیر تصمیم‎‍گیری، ضمن رعایت محدودیت‎‍ها و الزامات نیروگاه، محاسبات برای میزان تولید برق انجام گرفته ‌است. سپس با استفاده از دیاگرام‌های علی و معلولی در رویکرد پویایی‌شناسی سیستمی، سیستم انرژی در بخش مصرف شبیه‌سازی شده ‌است. نتایج پژوهش، برنامه‌ریزی و تخصیص مناسب را به‌منظور اختصاص انرژی در بخش مصرف، برای کاهش انتشار گازهای گلخانه‎‍ای ارائه می‌دهد.

Greenhouse gas emission reduction model: an integrated approach of linear programming and system dynamics The case of Iranian power plants

Purpose: The world’s electricity industry has faced numerous challenges, such as rising electricity demand and greenhouse emissions, declining fossil fuel reserves, economic conditions, and rising costs. Such challenges have forced managers to supply energy by replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy sources. The technology advancements and electronic equipment in the consumption sector have increased the need for electricity. Hence, electricity generation has become more significant due to the type of power plant. This study aims to prioritize electricity generation by allocating it to the consumption sector, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.Design/methodology/approach: In this study, a mathematical has been proposed to determine the amount of electricity production from power plants with different economic, technical, and environmental conditions. Then, the optimal electricity allocated to various sectors (as consumers), such as household, commercial, transportation, industry, and agriculture has been examined. By simulating and proposing a linear programming model, regarding the energy data in 2017, 10 types of the power plant and energy balance have been taken into consideration. Based on a mathematical model and by considering three decisionmaking variables, while observing the limitations and requirements of the power plant, the amount of electricity generation has been determined. Then, the energy system in the consumption sector has been simulated by causal diagrams using the system dynamics approach.Findings: The lack of fossil fuels and environmental pollution associated with energy development are challenging issues. Fossil fuel production and consumption contribute to global warming and acid rain. Therefore, one solution to protect the environment from the proliferation of energy waste and its consumption is the effective planning of energy systems. Findings indicated the role of proper planning and allocation for energy in the consumption sector, in reducing greenhouse gas emissions.Research limitations/implications: The lack of comprehensive and accurate data on the application of renewable technologies to generate electricity in Iran is one of the main limitations of the empirical study. One of the limitations of the proposed model is the consideration of renewable and nonrenewable sources, simultaneously. Electricity from renewable fuel has also been less noticed.Practical implications: Based on the findings it is concluded that the mathematical model with more comprehensive indicators and the system dynamics model can play a significant role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, the following strategies can be used to reduce greenhouse gas emissions nationwide: The percentage of electricity generation from renewable energy sources should be increased and the use of fossil resources to generate electricity should be reduced, which is evident from the application of the mathematical function of the model. Electricity generation from power plants based on the specified priority will significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. According to the calculation of the environmental index, issuing construction permissions for coal and gas power plants should be prevented. The needs of the domestic and commercial sectors must be met through renewable energy sources.Originality/value: In this study, mathematical planning and dynamic system were used to study technical, economic, and environmental conditions in the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Considering the existence of objective functions in the mathematical model and the optimal results obtained from the production of 10 hypothetical power plants in this study, it is implied that the optimal production in solar, wind, combined cycle, heater, water, and natural gas centers has potentials for capacity expansion.