ارائۀ مدلی برای شبیه‌ سازی عوامل موثر بر وفاداری برند در صنعت خرده‌ فروشی آنلاین با رویکرد پویایی سیستم

با‌ توجه به گسترش چشمگیر و روزافزون خرید آنلاین در صنعت خرده‌فروشی و تغییر رفتار مصرف‌کنندگان یکی از دغدغه‌های خرده‌فروشی‌های آنلاین در این صنعت ایجاد وفاداری و حس تعلق در مشتریان است. هدف از پژوهش حاضر ارائۀ مدلی پویا برای تدوین استراتژی وفاداری برند در صنعت خرده‌فروشی آنلاین است. بدین منظور با استفاده از روش پویایی سیستم عوامل اصلی موثر بر وفاداری به برند، شناسایی و روابط آنها به شکل نمودار علت و معلولی مشخص شد. درنهایت، نمودار جریان با استفاده از نمودار علت و معلولی و با استناد به نظر خبرگان و پیشینۀ پژوهش تهیه شد. شبیه‎سازی پویای پژوهش با استفاده از نرم‌افزار ونسیم نسخۀ 7.3.5 در افق زمانی 10 ساله از سال 1392 تا 1402 برای مصرف‌کنندگان خرده‌فروشی آنلاین صورت گرفته است. اعتبار مدل با اجرای آزمون‌های بازتولید رفتار و تحلیل حساسیت مدل تایید و سپس سناریو رضایت مشتریان با افزایش 70 درصدی و دیگری با افزایش 30 درصدی و سناریو سیاست‌ها و استراتژی‌های بهبود با افزایش 50 درصدی بر‌اساس نظر‌های خبرگان پیشنهاد و نتیجۀ حاصل از اجرای این سناریوها شبیه‌سازی شد. یافته‌ها نشان داد که افزایش رضایت مشتریان و سیاست‌ها و استراتژی‌های بهبود موجب افزایش وفاداری به برند می‌شود که این خود نشان از رشد کسب‌وکار دارد. از‌میان این سه سناریو، افزایش 70 درصدی رضایت مشتریان تاثیر بیشتری بر وفاداری به برند داشت؛ بنابراین کسب‌وکارها با دو بازوی رضایت مشتریان و سیاست‌ها و استراتژی‌های بهبود می‌توانند وفاداری به برند را افزایش دهند و نیز کنترل کنند؛ زیرا این سناریو‌ها منجر به افزایش درآمد سالانۀ هر مشتری می‌شود.

presenting a model for simulating factors affecting brand loyalty in the online retail industry with a system dynamics approach

due to the significant and increasing expansion of online shopping in the retail industry and changing consumer behavior, one of the concerns of online retailers in this industry is to create loyalty and a sense of belonging among customers. the aim of this research is to provide a dynamic model for developing a brand loyalty strategy in the online retail industry. for this purpose, using the system dynamics method, the main factors affecting brand loyalty, recognition, and their relationships were determined in the form of a cause-and-effect diagram. finally, using the cause-and-effect diagram and referring to the opinion of experts and the background of the research, a flow diagram was prepared. the dynamic simulation of the research has been done using vensim software version 7.3.5 in the time horizon of 10 years, from 1392 (2013) to 1402 (2023) for online retail consumers. the validity of the model has been confirmed through the implementation of behavior reproduction tests and model sensitivity analysis. then, three scenarios of a 70% increase in customer satisfaction, a 30% increase in customer satisfaction, and a 50% increase in improvement policies and strategies were proposed based on the opinions of experts, and the results of these scenarios were simulated. the findings showed that increasing customer satisfaction and improvement policies and strategies increase brand loyalty, which indicates business growth. among these three scenarios, a 70% increase in customer satisfaction had a greater impact on brand loyalty. therefore, businesses with the two arms of customer satisfaction and improvement policies and strategies can increase and control brand loyalty, which lead to an increase in the annual revenue of each customer. keywords: online retail, customer loyalty, system dynamics, modeling and simulation.introductionit is essential for companies to project a reliable brand experience to prevent customers from shifting to rival brands (arora neha, 2016). brand loyalty is therefore one of the pivotal business concepts that have evolved in the recent decade. brand loyalty, defined as repeated purchases and commitment to a brand (dick basu 1994; eelen et al., 2017), has been considered one of the most valuable assets across all marketing metrics. in a global study conducted by the cmo club that surveyed nearly 70 chief marketing officers (cmos), approximately half of the cmos rated the creation and retention of brand loyalty as the most critical indicator of brand performance (guo wang, 2024). as the advancement of digital technology is shaping people’s shopping expectations and experiences, understanding how to maintain brand loyalty becomes even more critical because our knowledge of brand loyalty is challenged by the transformation of consumers’ shopping behavior in the digital era (guo wang, 2024).an essential growing trend of technological changes in marketing has been the advent of online shopping. with the development of the internet and commercial practices, online retailing has evolved into a globally interactive, effective, and cognitively challenging action (zhu et al., 2024). formally, online retailing (also known as online shopping) refers to selling goods over the internet or at a distance as the final step in a transaction (childers et al., 2001). online retailing differs from its offline counterpart in its main operating channels (verhoef et al., 2015). online retailing shops attract more customers than offline shops thanks to the more available products, lower prices, and targeted marketing strategies (zhu et al., 2024). with this backdrop, online retailers have a good chance to grow their business and establish a stable relationship with customers, especially in retaining existing customers.