طراحی مدل کج‌رفتاری ناشی از سوگیری‌های ذهنی مشتریان در صنعت مالی؛ مطالعۀ موردی: مشتریان بانک و بورس

هدف اصلی پژوهش حاضر، شناسایی و بررسی کج‌رفتاری‌های مشتریان درنتیجۀ سوگیری‌های ذهنی موثر بر آنها درزمینۀ سرمایه‌گذاری (در بانک و بورس) است که براساس مطالعات موجود و واقعیت بازار سرمایه اهمیت زیادی در مسیر توسعۀ اقتصادی کشور دارد. این پژوهش به‌روش آمیخته (کیفی و کمّی) انجام شده است. پس از مطالعه و گردآوری مصادیق کج‌رفتاری و سوگیری‌های ذهنی موثر بر کج‌رفتاری مشتریان و سرمایه‌گذاران ازطریق منابع علمی و انجام مصاحبه‌های عمیق نیمه‌ساختاریافته با 17 صاحب‌نظر و تحلیل آن به‌شیوۀ تحلیل مضمون، پرسشنامه‌ها بین مشتریان خدمات سرمایه‌گذاری (بانک و بورس) توزیع و جمع‌آوری شد که ازطریق تحلیل عاملی‌اکتشافی و با کمک نرم‌افزارهای spss 22 و amos 24 داده‌های جمع‌آوری‌شده (384 پرسشنامه) تحلیل شد. به‌عبارت دیگر، پس از تعیین مصادیق کج‌رفتاری مشتریان با کمک خبرگان، سوگیری‌های ذهنی که به وقوع این کج‌رفتاری‌ها در حوزۀ خدمات سرمایه‌گذاری منجر می‌شود، شناسایی و مطالعه و دسته‌بندی شدند. نتایج پژوهش حاضر حاکی از وجود 3 دسته سوگیری ذهنی در بین مشتریان صنعت خدمات مالی است که گروه جدیدی از عوامل با عنوان «سوگیری‌های ارزشی یا اعتقادی» در این پژوهش برای نخستین بار کشف و بررسی شد. به‌طور کلی، در این پژوهش علاوه‌بر شناسایی 5 نوع کج‌رفتاری در بین مشتریان، همۀ سوگیری‌های ذهنی مشتریان خدمات مالی (بورس و بانک) در سه گروهِ سوگیری‌های قضاوتی یا شناختی، سوگیری‌های حسی یا ترجیحی و سوگیری‌های ارزشی یا اعتقادی دسته‌بندی شدند.

designing a model of misbehavior due to customers’ mental biases in the financial industry: bank and stock market customers

human behavior and decision-making processes have been the subject of studies by many researchers, especially in the field of marketing. basically, the purpose of such studies is to identify the impact of psychological, behavioral, and cognitive aspects in decision making. in the framework of this view, a theoretical scientific framework was created that shows behavioral economics, which briefly aims to integrate psychological aspects in the decision-making process of economic and financial affairs. according to this study, the research conducted in this field aims to investigate the way people make decisions and how they interact or influence other people, organizations, markets, and society. on the other hand, the investment decision-making process (investor behavior) is influenced by various behavioral biases that deviate investors from rationality and cause irrational and illogical decisions. in fact, this field focuses on the behavior of investors and their decision-making process. overconfidence, herding, anchoring, cognitive dissonance, availability bias, self-attribution, mental accounting, framing, and representative bias are a few of the biases that have a major impact on people’s investment decisions.the main goal of the current research is to identify and investigate the misbehavior of customers as a result of mental biases affecting them in the field of investment (in the bank and stock market), which, based on existing studies and the reality of the capital market, is of great importance in the country’s economic development. this research has been done using a mixed-methods approach (qualitative and quantitative). in the qualitative part, the research community includes experts (including professors and researchers in the field of customer behavior and behavioral economics, as well as managers and executive experts with membership in high levels of banking and stock exchange organizations) and informed customers (familiar with various investment methods and having at least 5 years of investment activity). sampling has been done in a purposeful or judgmental way (using people who have sufficient expertise and necessary information in the field of research) with 17 people. also, the theme analysis approach has been used to analyze and systematically code qualitative data and develop themes. the data collection method in this section is semi-structured in-depth interviews (to discover and confirm the final components and their relationships). the content validity ratio of cvr has been also measured for interview questions by using the opinions of 10 experts. according to lawshes’ opinion, after modifying, deleting, or merging questions with lower than acceptable cvr, the calculated cvr for the final questions of the questionnaire was larger than or equal to 0.65 (higher than 0.62). for measuring the reliability of the interviews cohen’s kappa coefficient and formula were also used, which was measured at 0.55 in this research, according to the guide table of landis and koch’s was considered higher than average. in the quantitative part of the research, the statistical population is all clients of investment services of tehran’s banks and stock exchange, and a sample of 384 people (based on cochran’s formula for unlimited societies) has been examined (351 people electronically and 33 people by paper and telephone for access to the desired sample were questioned). the method used for data analysis and model testing in this section is structural equation modeling, which was modeled and implemented using amos software. the data collection tool was a 30-question likert scale questionnaire. in order to confirm the construct validity, bartlett’s level of significance must be less than 5 percent, which in this study ‘zero’ is confirmed. the sampling adequacy statistic is 0.685. it should be noted that the reliability of the entire questionnaire was acceptable with a rate of 0.894, but the anchoring