امکان سنجی بهبود ارزش پروژه های عمرانی بزرگ مقیاس با استفاده از تلفیق مهندسی ارزش و مدل پیش بینی استنتاج فازی

با استفاده از مفاهیم مهندسی ارزش و بررسی مشکلات و موانع کاربرد روش ذکر شده در ساختار مجموعه‌های کارفرمایی، پیمانکاری و مشاوره‌یی، پژوهش حاضر سعی دارد معیارهای اصلی و میزان تاثیرشان در بهبود ارزش ابر پروژه‌ها را بسنجد. هدف اصلی، پیش‌بینی میزان تاثیر عامل‌های مرتبط با کیفیت، زمان و هزینه در ارزش ابرپروژه‌ها با استفاده از یک مدل استنتاج فازی عصبی تطبیقی است. جهت ساخت مدل پیش‌بینی مذکور، اطلاعات لازم توسط یک پرسش‌نامه جمع‌آوری شده است، که روائی و پایایی آن نیز بررسی و تایید شده است. بر اساس نظرات خبرگان موضوع و انجام مصاحبه، ارزیابی میزان تاثیر معیارهای اصلی مهندسی ارزش در کیفیت،زمان و هزینه‌ی یک ابرپروژه (مطالعه‌ی موردی: پروژه‌ی ایران‌مال) انجام شده و مدل مذکور توسعه یافته است. نتایج پژوهش حاضر نشان داد که بیشترین و کمترین میزان تاثیر در بین معیارهای انتخابی در مدیریت کارآمد ابرپروژه‌ها، هر دو مربوط به عامل زمان با معیارهای «برنامه‌ریزی صحیح» و «جلوگیری از تداخل مسئولیت‌ها» بوده است.

feasibility study on promoting the value of large-scale construction projects using the combination of value engineering and the anfis method

value engineering (ve) enables project managers to discover the size and location of problems in a project and to mitigate any potential backwardness. the current research aimed to find major impressive criteria and to measure their impact level on promoting the value of large-scale/mega projects using ve concepts. the hindrance and obstacles available in the application of ve in construction engineering were considered to ensure the accuracy. the main research objective was to forecast the effect of quality, cost, and time factors on the project value using an adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (anfis) model. to create the anfis model, the required data were collected through a five-point scale likert questionnaire, by which the expert opinions were obtained, and pairwise comparisons of the items were accomplished. the model was created using matlab. the statistical population was adopted from the experts and managers working in a large-scale project who were familiar with the concepts and details of ve and project management. according to the literature, more than 50 ve criteria were found, which were then reduced to 25 criteria based on experts’ opinions. these final criteria were categorized into three groups: cost, time, and quality. afterwards, the data collected via the questionnaires were analyzed by the anfis model. before completing the calculations, validity and reliability of the analytical model were investigated to ensure that the results are both valid and reliable enough for further use. the results showed that the criterion entitled ‘proper programming …’ had the highest impact on promoting the projects value, while the criterion entitled ‘prevention of work and responsibility interference …’ had the least influence. both of the mentioned criteria were situated in the group of cost, indicating the higher importance of this group than that of the other groups.