Sustainability Test of Iran’s Agricultural Balance Trade

From the perspective of new growth models and new internationaltrade theories, both exports and imports play animportant role in a dynamic economy. economically, we cannotmerely emphasize on a positive trade balance and we ignore thebenefits of imports, and also we cannot advise negative tradebalance. but the main concern of policy makers about internationaltrade should be making stability and equilibrium of trade balancein the long run. especially, deficit agricultural trade balance canbe a great danger for food security. hence, the main objective ofthis study was to test the sustainability of iran's agriculturaltrade balance during the period 1961-2011 (1340-1390). forthis purpose, after confirming the existence of cointegration bygregory-hansen test, hasted and arize models was estimatedwith ols, fmols and dols methods and it released we canverify sustainability of agricultural trade balance during theperiod of the study. also, the estimation of error correctionmodel showed that there is a bidirectional causality relationshipbetween import and export in long-run while in short-run exportonly cause import in agriculture sector.