An Intervention Analysis of the Behavior of the Iranian Real Gross Domestic Product: 1959-2001

The iranian real gross domestic product in the period of 1959-2001reveals a relatively high degree of instability. some of this instabilityalmost certainly arises because of external shocks to the economy. thispaper focuses on three shocks, or interventions, which seem to have hadparticularly significant impacts on the iranian economy. these are thepolitical upheavals of mid 1971 's, the 1981-1989 war, and the oil shockand some policy reversals of early 1991 'so we construct a time seriesmodel for the purpose of intervention analysis and use this model tocalculate the impact on the iranian economy of each and every of theseinterventions.