Trend Break or 'Unit Root in GDP of Iran

It has been suggested that existing estimates of the long-runimpact of a surprise move in income may have a substantialupward bias due to the presence of a trend break in 1970s(1350s) and 1980s (1360s) gross domestic product (containedoil) data of iran. this article shows that the statistical evidencedoes not warr~nt abandoning the no-trend-break null hypothesisat the 5% significance level. a key part of the argument is thatconventionally computed p values overstate the likelihood ofthe trend-break alternative hypothesis. this is because they donot take into account that; in practice, the data is chosen basedon pretest examination of the data.