Assessing the Iranian Fiscal Sustainability in Past and Future Through Tax Side of the Economy

I this paper,i have focused on the tax side of the fiscal policy to investigate the past and future behavior of fiscal sustainability in iran. to do so,i have employed two different forward-looking and backward-looking approaches. first,the backward-looking approach is the fiscal policy rule proposed by daving & leeper (2011). precisely,this rule determines that whether the fiscal policy is active (unsustainable) or passive (sustainable). to estimate the fiscal policy rule,i have exploited markov switching model (msm) which examines the tax rate response to debt dynamics under multiple regimes. second,the forward-looking approach is the modified blanchard’s tax gap indicator (1990) for an oil-producing country. in fact,this indicator predicts the amount of tax adjustment required to stabilize the future amount of government’s debt back to its value in a particular base year. i have used time series data over the period spanning from 1993(q1) to 2013(q4). © 2016,university of teheran. all rights reserved.