Historical and Variance Decomposition For Oil Price,Oil Consumption,Opec and Non-Opec Oil Production

In this paper,the behavior of the real oil price and opec and non-opec oil production during 1973-2013 are modelled. interactions among opec,non-opec oil production,global oil consumption,and the real price of crude oil are estimated using a structural var model (svar). after providing evidence for the structural breaks in oil price in 1996,the results indicate that,according to variance decomposition analysis,during the two periods of 1996-1973 and 2013-1997,opec oil production responded significantly to positive shocks of global oil consumption and non-opec oil production responded significantly to shocks of opec oil production. during the opec era (1973-1996),real oil price responded significantly to positive shocks of opec oil production and during the new industrial age (1997-2013) responded significantly to positive shocks of global oil consumption. according to historical decomposition,the cumulative effects of structural shocks of non-opec oil production and price on opec oil production are greater than the cumulative effects of structural shocks of opec oil production and real oil price on non-opec oil production. also,cumulative effects of structural shocks of opec oil production on real oil price are greater than cumulative effect of structural shocks of non-opec oil production on real oil price. © 2017,university of teheran. all rights reserved.