Development of System Dynamics Based Simulation Models for Runway Safety Planning

Safety has been established in maintaining and improving the productivity level of the aviation industry with derivable benefits in terms of wealth and reputation. despite high investments in aviation, safety is generally recognized as an incurred cost, leading to a compliance approach. this may be due to the dearth of literature on a generally agreed proactive safety performance indicator to justify the huge investment. this study, therefore, developed predictive models that evaluate runway safety investment strategies and predict the overall performance of the aviation system using system dynamics stock and flow diagram. an interactive computer programme of the models was written using java programming language. a set of dynamic equations for predicting a number of runway accidents, preventions, monetary savings/losses, and safety programme breakeven period are the safety performance measures. the runway safety intervention effectiveness factor and level of budget implementation are system policy parameters used to control the mechanism of the runway safety system. relevant data were obtained from federal aviation authority, nigeria to validate the models. twenty-nine runway safety quantities were identified. the dynamic equations for a number of runway accident preventions and monetary savings/losses exhibited exponential growth, while the number of runway accidents exhibits exponential decay. the results of the simulation runs showed no significant difference between the former and real-life situations; thus, the models can serve as useful tools to effectively and efficiently manage the behavior and performance of the runway safety programme.