آینده‌نگری راهبردی در خلق انعطاف‌پذیری راهبردی و تصمیم‌گیری عقلایی

عدم اطمینان فزایندهی محیط امروزی، سازمان‌ها را با چالش‌های مهمی روبرو کرده است و تمامی شرکت‌ها بسته به نوع محیط فعالیت‌شان، کمابیش با آن دست و پنجه نرم می‌کنند. یکی از موثرترین روش‌هایی که می‌تواند سازمان‌ها را برای مقابله با این شرایط متغیر یاری رساند، رشد قابلیت‌های پویا است. یکی از مهمترین زمینه‌های رشد قابلیت‌های پویا که در ادبیات مدیریت راهبردی نیز به آن اشاره شده، آینده‌نگری راهبردی می‌باشد. این تحقیق سعی‌ می‌کند تا به بررسی نقش آینده‌نگری راهبردی در خلق قابلیت‌های پویایِ انعطاف‌پذیری راهبردی و تصمیم‌گیری عقلایی با اثر تعدیل گر عدم اطمینان محیطی، بپردازد. به این منظور تعداد 156 شرکت‌ دانش‌بنیان تولیدی برق، الکترونیک، فوتونیک، مخابرات و سیستم‌های خودکار شهر تهران با استفاده از فرمول جامعه محدود کوکران انتخاب شدند. داده‌های این تحقیق با استفاده از روش نمونه‌گیری تصادفی ساده و پرسشنامه محقق ساخته با بهره‌گیری از شاخص‌ها و پرسش‌های تحقیق هرهاوس و لینینگ گردآوری شد. برای روایی این پرسشنامه از نظرات اساتید و خبرگان استفاده شد. برای پایایی نیز از آلفای کرونباخ استفاده و میزان آن 0/943 تعیین شد. در این تحقیق سه فرضیه تایید و یک فرضیه رد شد. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که آینده‌نگری راهبردی در خلق قابلیت‌های پویایِ انعطاف‌پذیری راهبردی و تصمیم‌گیری عقلایی موثر است و همچنین عدم اطمینان محیطی رابطه آینده‌نگری راهبردی و تصمیم‌گیری عقلایی را تعدیل می‌کند.

the role of strategic foresight in creating strategic flexibility and rational decision making

aim and introduction: increasing environmental uncertainty has brought increasing challenges to various organizations. today, environmental uncertainty has spread in the business environment; the advent of globalization, highly destructive business models, and rapid technological change have increased the instability and complexity of the competitive landscape. the growing entanglement of organizations with their environment often results in emerging and unpredictable behaviors. it is very unlikely that unforeseen events, with significant consequences, will only affect one company individually and not affect the entire industry. the growing uncertainty of today’s environment has faced significant challenges for organizations, and all companies, depending on the type of environment in which they operate, more or less deal with it. one of the most effective ways that organizations can cope with these changing conditions is to develop dynamic capabilities. one of the most important areas for the development of dynamic capabilities, which is also mentioned in the strategic management literature, is strategic foresight. therefore, the main purpose of this study is to investigate the role of strategic foresight in creating dynamic capabilities of strategic flexibility and rational decision making with the moderating effect of environmental uncertainty.methodology: given that the main purpose of this study is to determine the role of strategic foresight in creating strategic flexibility and rational decision making with the moderating effect of environmental uncertainty. this research is a descriptive-survey research in terms of the purpose of an applied research and in terms of the nature or method of data collection and is correlational in terms of the relationships between research variables. the data of this research were collected using a simple random sampling method and a researcher-made questionnaire using the indicators and research questions of herhaus and lining (2020). the opinions of professors and experts were used to validate this questionnaire. cronbach’s alpha was used for reliability which was set to 0.943. spss and smart pls software have been used to test the hypotheses of this research. the research data were collected from 156 knowledge-based companies in the field of electricity, electronics, photonics, telecommunications and automated systems in tehran that is according to the limited statistical population and based on the cochrane limited society formula.findings: the results show that strategic foresight is effective in creating dynamic capabilities of strategic flexibility and rational decision-making, as well as environmental uncertainty that moderates the relationship between strategic foresight and rational decision-making. therefore, from the research hypotheses, the first, second and third hypotheses were confirmed and the fourth hypothesis was not confirmed.hypothesis 1: strategic foresight is effective in creating strategic flexibility.hypothesis 2: strategic foresight is effective in creating rational decision making.hypothesis 3: environmental uncertainty modulates the relationship between strategic foresight and strategic flexibility.    hypothesis 4: environmental uncertainty does not moderate the relationship between strategic foresight and rational decision making.discussion and conclusion: the first, second and third hypotheses of this study were confirmed by path coefficients and appropriate statistics. the fourth hypothesis of this research was rejected from 1.96 due to its lower statistical value. according to statistical tests, the highest correlation is between strategic foresight and strategic flexibility. in order to improve dynamic capabilities, it is better to focus more on creating strategic flexibility.