ارزیابی پویای تاثیر بانکداری الکترونیکی بر توسعه مالی

ورود بانک‌ها به عرصه فناوری اطلاعات و ارتباطات این امکان را برای آن‌ها فراهم کرده تا جهش‌ های چشم‌گیری برای ارائه و گسترش خدمات خود داشته باشند. توسعه مستمر بانکداری الکترونیکی سبب بهبود کارایی نظام بانکداری و کاهش هزینه‌ های مربوطه به تعاملات در سطح ملی و بین ‌المللی می شود که نتیجه آن رسیدن به بهره‌ وری اقتصادی است. در سال‌های اخیر روند رو به رشد استفاده از ابزارهای نوین پرداخت الکترونیکی در سیستم بانکی کشور قابل توجه است. به‌گونه‌ای که کلیه‌ی امور بانکی از قبیل پرداخت ‌ها و برداشت ‌ها به صورت الکترونیکی و اینترنتی انجام می ‌گیرد. از آنجایی که بانک‌ها نقش مهمی در مثلث توسعه مالی ایفا می‌کنند، در این پژوهش سعی شده است با طراحی مدل سیستمی نقش بانکداری الکترونیکی بر روی توسعه مالی بررسی گردد. نتایج این پژوهش  از آن جهت که شبیه‌سازی سیستمی می‌ باشد می‌ تواند تاثیر اجرای سیاست ‌های مختلف در حوزه ی بانکداری را بر روی توسعه مالی نشان دهد و منجر به تصمیم‌ گیری بهتر در این حوزه شود، پس نتایج این پژوهش به طور خاص برای توسعه نظام بانکی و بازار مالی کاربرد دارد. به این منظور با استفاده از نرم‌افزار ونسیم به شبیه‌سازی مدل سیستمی توسعه مالی در ایران برای بانک‌ها پرداخته شده است. در این پژوهش از روش کتابخانه ‌ای برای جمع‌آوری اطلاعات در زمینه ادبیات و پیشینه تحقیق استفاده شده است. همچنین از مطالعات پیشین برای تدوین مدل‌های ذهنی و به دست آوردن معادلات و روابط بین متغیرها استفاده شده و داده‌ های مورد نیاز این مدل مربوط به سال‌های 1392 تا 1397 از آمار بانک مرکزی و داده‌ های وزارت اقتصاد استخراج شده است. نتایج پژوهش حاکی از آن است که عادت به سیستم جدید (بانکداری الکترونیکی) و استفاده از پرداخت الکترونیکی می‌ تواند باعث بهبود دارایی ‌ها در بانکداری و افزایش درآمد بانکی شده و نهایتاً به‌کارگیری آن سبب رشد شاخص‌ های توسعه مالی و نقدینگی می‌شود.

A dynamic assessment of the impact of e-banking on financial development

Aim and Introduction: The entry of banks into the field of information and communication technology has enabled them to make significant leaps in providing and expanding their services. The continuous development of electronic banking improves the efficiency of the banking system and reduces the costs associated with interactions at the national and international levels, which results in economic efficiency. In recent years, the growing trend of using new electronic payment tools in the country’s banking system is significant. In such a way that all banking affairs such as payments and withdrawals, etc. are done electronically and online. Since banks play an important role in the financial development triangle, in this study, the role of electronic banking on financial development has been investigated by designing a system model.Methodology: This research is of analyticaldescriptive type and is based on the applied purpose and in terms of how the required data is of the library type. In this regard, by designing a system of factors affecting financial development, the effects of ebanking in Iran as part of the money market on financial development in a dynamic model are examined. The required economic data is collected from official sources such as the Central Bank and the required model estimates are collected from previous articles. In this paper, the system dynamics methodology is used to study and evaluate the impact of electronic banking on financial development. System dynamics is one of the mathematical methods that is based on the structure of the control circuit and allows the study of the structure and behavior of complex economic, social, etc. systems that in Real worlds are not linear. This approach takes a dynamic look at dealing with time, paying attention to the uncertainty in the parameters and considering the relationships between the variables, examining the time delays, making the necessary savings and most importantly showing the feedback effects of the variables over time. Also, using differential equations tries to understand and predict behaviors based on pattern variables in the system in question. In modeling system dynamics, the goal is to examine various potential policies to improve system performance. Among the policies, the one with the best results is selected to be implemented in the system.Findings: The results indicate that getting used to the new system (electronic banking) and the use of electronic payment can improve assets in banking and ultimately its use can lead to the growth of financial development and liquidity indicators.In general, according to the simulation of the financial development model using Venice and reviewing the scenarios performed, the following results can be presented:Systematic design of financial development indicatorsThe current financial system of Iran has many fluctuations in the banking sector; And traditional indicators of financial development, such as those formed using the amount of money and credit, may not be able to accurately assess the country’s financial development.The most important banking variables affecting financial development in this study include GDP, domestic assets of commercial banks, banknotes and coins, and bank credits and facilities.Considering the application of three scenarios, it can be stated that the use of ebanking indicators together in the model by accelerating the operation, saving time and increasing services, increases bank deposits and financial development indicators and also increases Becomes bank assets.Discussion and Conclusion: Increasing the acceptance of electronic banking is the first step of financial development compared to traditional banking and its advantages and reducing the resistance to the traditional system. Factors such as the quality of the system, network speed, training, ease of use, etc. are variables that become more important after the adoption of electronic banking and are in the next stage. An examination of the history of the Iranian people in accepting various issues shows that, if they become accustomed to a system in any way, they will immediately apply it and that new technology or issue will become widespread. Therefore, it is very important to develop the habit of using new technologies, even if this habit is done by applying legal and coercive methods; For example, it is possible to pay the salaries of all government employees only by using credit cards; And the same goes for other ebanking tools. This method is the fastest and most effective way to spread ebanking according to the sociocultural characteristics of the Iranian people. In this way, over time, the traditional banking structure becomes the structure of electronic banking. Of course, it should be noted that the move towards electronic banking and online technologies, in general, is undeniable, and our country is moving in this direction, and our goal is to accelerate this process and align the Iranian people with it.Therefore, in addition to the technical, quantitative and qualitative development of ebanking, banks should also pay attention to the factors affecting its acceptance by customers and make it one of the important aspects of technology management in their organization to be successful. In the area of ​​macropolicy, when the ebanking sector and the private sector are supported, financial development will increase, and as a result, the capital market will gain more power and investment in it will increase. This increase in investment will further strengthen production. Market support affects production in the same way. With the growth of domestic production and the capital market, as well as the attraction of foreign investment, national income also increases. The reinforcing effect of this process on each other enables government and policymakers to achieve remarkable results with knowledge of system dynamics and management of controllable factors. Of course, as mentioned in the dissertation, if the policymakers lack knowledge and do not pay attention to the consequences of actions, they can create negative effects that will be strengthened exponentially and cause irreparable damage.