سناریو نویسی راه‌کارهای بهبود رتبه ایران در شاخص سهولت انجام کسب و کار

هدف از تحقیق حاضر تحلیل سناریوهای امکان بهبود رتبه کل کشور در شاخص سهولت انجام کسب‎‌وکار است. تحقیق حاضر از منظر هدف جز تحقیقات کاربردی و از نظر شیوه گردآوری داده‌ ها جز تحقیقات توصیفی می‌ باشد. برای انجام تحلیل، ابتدا داده‌های شاخص سهولت انجام کسب‎‌وکار سال 2019 برای تمامی کشورها مورد استفاده قرار گرفت. سپس روش شناسی شاخص db در گردآوری داده‌ها و نیز  تعیین امتیاز و رتبه کشورها مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. پس از آن، بر اساس روش‌شناسی سهولت انجام کسب‌وکار در تعیین امتیازات هر یک از زیرشاخص‌ها، داده‌ها مجدداً فرمول‌بندی گردید و در نهایت، با استفاده از روش تکاملی، سه سناریوی مختلف (با هدف‌گذاری رتبه‌ های 120110 و 100 ایران در شاخص کلی) بر اساس پنج زیرشاخص سهل الوصول‌تر از نظر سیاست‌گذاری در محیط اکسل مورد آزمون قرار گرفت. یافته ‌ها، نشان می‌دهد که با تغییر جزیی در پارامترهای اصلی این شاخص بویژه رویه و زمان می‌ توان به اهداف رتبه‌ای فوق دست یافت. به عنوان نمونه، برای رسیدن به رتبه 100 در شاخص کل، باید رتبه زیرشاخص‌های شروع کسب‌وکار، مجوزهای ساخت، دسترسی به برق، ثبت دارایی و تجارت فرامرزی به ترتیب 20، 63، 38، 33 و 34 جایگاه بهبود یابند. برای این کار باید در زیر شاخص شروع کسب‎‌وکار، زمان مورد نیاز 14 روز و تعداد رویه‌ ها 4 مرحله؛ در زیرشاخص مجوزهای ساخت، تعداد رویه 6 مرحله و زمان 45 روز؛ در شاخص دسترسی به برق، تعداد رویه 1 مرحله و زمان 49 روز؛ در زیرشاخص ثبت دارایی، تعداد رویه‌ها 3 مرحله و زمان 14 روز و در زیرشاخص تجارت فرامرزی، زمان برای پذیرش مدارک و پذیرش مرزی صادرات به ترتیب 7 و 37 ساعت و زمان برای پذیرش مدارک و پذیرش مرزی واردات به ترتیب 22 و 95 ساعت کاهش پیدا کنند.

Scenario Writing Strategies for Improving Iran’s Rank in the Ease of Doing Business Index

Aim and introduction: Ease of doing business (DB) is one of the wellknown indices to determine whether or not the business environment of countries is optimal. The index has been published by the World Bank since 2003. The main purpose behind the DB is to develop economic activities, especially in the private sector, as well as to create a transparent and coherent legal environment for businesses to protect property rights and facilitate dispute resolution. When policymakers bind themselves to provide proposals for reform, laws, and regulations are then developed that make economic interactions more predictable, and provide merchants and traders with essential principles and information on arbitration and abuse. Such regulations will have a huge impact on stimulating people’s tendencies towards economic growth and development.In Iran, the idea of improving the business environment has always been one of the principal solutions to address the country’s economic problems over the past few years, provided by economists and experts. On the other hand, in recent years, many efforts have been made to improve Iran’s DB rankings, but have often failed so that in recent years Iran’s rank has steadily declined.Methodology: Ease of DB is one of the wellknown indices of the business environment in the countries; therefore, this study aimed to present and analyze scenarios to improve Iran’s overall score and ranking in the ease of the DB index.For the analysis, the DB 2019 index data obtained from all countries. Then, the data were reformulated according to the DB methodology to determine the scores of each of the subindices and their criteria; and, finally, using operational research, three different scenarios were tested in excel via the Solver Command. In these scenarios, the DTF score of the ease of DB index was targeted; then the best possible outcome was achieved through the evolutionary method by modifying the specified variables and considering the constraints imposed on them.Findings: According to the analyses, if policymakers want to improve Iran’s ranking in the ease of DB index by setting a specific goal of achieving a specific ranking, then the model constraints must first be restated and/or the extent of the change in the subindices to be achieved for model estimation. The scenario of changing and improving rank requires applying constraints for changing criteria so that the change is made at the lowest possible cost even with the most changes in the criteria. In other words, the change in time will be less costly than a change in the number of procedures and changes in the costs themselves.However, scenarios to improve the ease of the DB index have been formulated to facilitate the possibility of modifying any of the criteria and subindices. As this research focuses on subindices starting a business, dealing with construction permits, getting to electricity, registering property, and trading across borders, only political recommendations are offered to improve the country’s performance in these subindices. Discussion and Conclusion: Accordingly, targeting the 100th rank for the country, policymakers should take the following steps to improve the overall country’s rank to the targeted number:In subindex starting a business, the number of procedures should be decreased from 10.5 days to 6.5 days. And the time should be decreased from 72.5 days to 58.5 days.In subindex dealing with construction permits, the number of procedures and time should be decreased by 6 cases and 45 days, respectively, and reached to 6 procedures and 85 days.In subindex getting electricity, the number of procedures and time should be decreased by 1 case and 49 days, respectively, and reached to 5 procedures and 28 days.In subindex registering property, the number of procedures and time decreased by 3 cases and 14 days, respectively, and reached to 3 procedures and 17 days.In subindex trading across borders, the time to accept documents and border acceptance of exports should be decreased by 7 and 37 hours, and reached 26 and 64 hours, respectively.In general, the scenario shows that in order to reach the 100nd rank in overall index, the rankings of subindices starting a business, dealing with construction permits, getting electricity, registering property, and trading across borders need to be improved by 20, 63, 38, 33 and 34 positions, respectively. The above changes will also be needed for this purpose