پیشنهاد یک چهارچوب ارزشیابی سیاست عمومی: به‌کارگیری در تحلیل سیاست‌ سازماندهی تمرکز جمعیت در تهران

شهر تهران به دلایلی چون تمرکز فعالیت‌های گوناگون در آن به کلان‌شهری پرجمعیت با مشکلات ناشی از تمرکز شدید جمعیت تبدیل شده که هر مخاطرۀ طبیعی نیز پیامدهای غیرقابل کنترلی در آن دارد. در این وضعیت، سیاست‌گذاری برای سازماندهی تمرکز جمعیت در شهر تهران از دهۀ 1340 شمسی در دستور کار سیاست‌گذاری این شهر قرار گرفته است. پرسش اصلی در این مقاله این است که چگونه می‌توان چهارچوبی برای ارزشیابی سیاست عمومی پیشنهاد نمود تا با به‌کارگیری آن سیاست‌های سازماندهی تمرکز جمعیت در تهران را در طول یک دورۀ مشخص زمانی، تحلیل نمود. برای پاسخ دادن به این پرسش فرایندی سه مرحله‌ای پیموده می‌شود: در مرحلۀ نخست با به‌کارگیری روش شاخص‌سازی، انگاشت ارزشیابی سیاست به عناصری قابل ردیابی تبدیل و چهارچوبی قابل سنجش برای آن پیشنهاد می‌شود. در مرحلۀ دوم تصمیم‌های مرتبط با سازماندهی تمرکز جمعیت و فعالیت در شهر تهران که پشتوانۀ حقوقی پیدا‌کرده‌اند با ردیابی متون قانونی بازبینی می‌شوند و در مرحلۀ سوم این تصمیم‌ها با به‌کارگیری چهارچوب پیشنهادی ارزشیابی سیاست، موررد سنجش قرار می‌گیرند. برونداد نهایی این است که سیاست سازماندهی تمرکز جمعیت در شهر تهران در فاصلۀ دهۀ 1340 تا 1390 اگرچه توانسته بر کاهش تمرکز جمعیت و فعالیت‌های تولیدیخدماتی در این شهر اثرگذار باشد، اما از جنبۀ ایجاد اثرات جانبی ناخواسته، دستیابی به اهداف، انسجام درونی و سازگاری بیرونی دارای کاستی است.

Proposing a Policy Evaluation Framework: Application in Analyzing Population Concentration Organizing Policy in Tehran

The request for systematic data on the performance of public and nonprofit programs continues to increase across the world. For meeting this demand, policy evaluation applies social sciences research methods, especially political sciences to find the impacts of policy interventions systematically in order to improve social welfare through policy adaptations. Program and policy evaluation is a valuable learning strategy for increasing knowledge about the basic logic of policies, and the policies activities under way as well as about the results of policies. It may include constant monitoring of a program as well as oneshot studies of policy processes or policy impacts. The used approaches are based on social science research methodologies and professional standards. In Tehran, the capital our country, some factors such as the concentration of decisionmaking and decisiontaking activities, production and service activities, and also activities related to public welfare, and statefunded largescale investments have led to the problems caused by these concentrations such as lack of urban services, different types of pollutions, social problems and the potential risks of natural disasters. In this situation, public policy making mechanism from the 1960s has adopted the policy of organizing the concentration of population in Tehran and several decisions have been made in relation to this policy. The main question in this paper is how to propose a public policy evaluation framework and apply it to analyze the success and failure of the population concentration organizing policy in Tehran over a specific period of time. To answer the above questions, a threestage process has been designed and applied; in the first stage, using the indexing method, which transforms the concept of policy evaluation into detectable elements, a policy evaluation framework/ design is proposed. An evaluation design identifies what questions will be answered by the evaluation, what data will be gathered, how the data will be analyzed to answer the questions, and how the subsequent information will be used. This paper is focusing on evaluating the conceptualization of the given policy. In the second stage, related decisions affecting the organization of concentration of population and activities in Tehran are reviewed by tracking the legal texts and planning documents, which indicates the elements of the policy of organizing the concentration of population in Tehran. These include both urban and regional planning and sectorial policies documents and texts. In the third stage these traced documents have been analyzed using the proposed policy evaluation framework and the results of the policy evaluation have been reported. The final result of this paper is that although the policy of organizing population and activities concentration in Tehran from 1960s until now has positive impacts in terms of its goals, it has some shortcomings in terms of its conceptualization including unintended side effects, taking unachievable goals, not being internally coherent and not being consistent with policies in other policy fields.