مدیریت مبتنی بر بازار منابع آب‌‌زیرزمینی با در نظر گرفتن عدم‌قطعیت حاصل از پایش مصارف

کاهش دسترسی به منابع آب‌‌های زیرزمینی و افت مداوم تراز آبخوان ها‌‌ در مناطق مختلف جهان به دلیل برداشت بی‌‌رویه و مدیریت ناپایدار این منابع، موجب ایجاد مشکلات محیط‌‌زیستی، اقتصادی و اجتماعی فراوان شده است. در این میان، بازار آب زیرزمینی به عنوان راه حلی مناسب برای تعادل بخشی و احیای آبخوان ها مورد توجه پژوهشگران و سیاست‌‌گذاران قرار گرفته است. این درحالی است که ایجاد بازار آب در مواردی به دلیل عدم وجود مکانیزمی کارا و موثر و عدم پایش و کنترل مناسب برداشت های آب موجب افزایش تنش به منابع آب شده است. در این مقاله با پیشنهاد و ارزیابی ساز و کار بازار آب فصلی هوشمند، به ارائه‌‌ی الگویی برای مدیریت منابع آب‌‌های زیرزمینی با در نظرگرفتن عدم قطعیت‌‌های موجود پرداخته شده است. همچنین دورسنجی تبخیر-تعرق به عنوان رویکردی نوین برای اندازه‌‌گیری و پایش مصارف آب در بازار آب‌‌زیرزمینی در این تحقیق پیشنهاد شده است. در این راستا عدم‌‌قطعیت حاصل از خطای مدل دورسنجی تبخیر-تعرق به عنوان الگوریتم پایش مصارف در نتایج ساز و کار بازار آب‌‌زیرزمینی با استفاده از روش تصمیم گیری استوار rdm ارزیابی شده است. نتایج نشان می‏دهند ساز و کار پیشنهادی بازار آب زیرزمینی فصلی موجب افزایش 25 درصدی بهره‌وری اقتصادی مصرف آب در منطقه مطالعاتی شده است. همچنین با اجرای بازار آب، بازتوزیع حق آبه ها تناسب بهتری با سطح زیر کشت کاربران دارد.  [1] robust decision making (rdm)

market-based groundwater resources management considering the uncertainty of water consumption monitoring

the decline in access to groundwater resources in different regions of the world due to the over-extraction and unsustainable management of these resources has led to significant environmental, economic, and social problems. in this regard, several researches have been carried out on the groundwater markets as a potential solution for aquifer restoration. however, in some cases, water markets have increased the tension on water resources due to the lack of proper water market mechanisms and monitoring of water withdrawals. the main purpose of this paper is to propose and evaluate a mechanism for the groundwater market to redistribute the water rights of groundwater resources and determine the exchange price in the market, taking into account the existing uncertainties. therefore, proposing an efficient and effective groundwater market mechanism, encompassing the institutional, economic, social, and environmental components, is of great importance. in this article, proposing and evaluating the mechanism of the smart water market, a model has been presented for the management of groundwater resources by considering the existing uncertainties. additionally, it suggests hiring remote sensing tools to estimate evapotranspiration as a novel approach for monitoring water consumption in the groundwater market. in this regard, the uncertainty arising from the error of remotely-sensed evapotranspiration in the results of the groundwater market mechanism has been evaluated using the robust decision-making (rdm) method. based on the uncertainty resulting from the error of the remote sensing of the evapotranspiration, the amount of allowed water rights in each season has been considered as an interval. given the unknown probabilistic distribution of variables, non-probabilistic methods are employed to analyze the uncertainty and reach a robust decision. in this regard, considering all possible combinations of seasonal water rights (as different market scenarios) and assessnig the decision criteria for each of them, the degree of desirability of these scenarios can be determined. the methodology can be generalized for different study areas, however to evaluate its efficiency, the proposed models and algorithms are assessed using the data of nough region in rafsanjan plain, as one of the forbidden plains with high economic value of water in terms of pistachio production. by designing and evaluating groundwater market mechanism, taking into account the economic and social components, sustainable management of groundwater resources is expected to be promoted and farmers' livelihoods to be less affected by water restrictive policies. the results show that the proposed mechanism of the seasonal groundwater market has increased the economic efficiency of water consumption in the study area by 25%. furthermore, with the implementation of the water market, the redistribution of water rights has a better fit with the users’ cultivated area. finally, the rdm method identifies the best scenario, incorporating allowed water rights for four auction seasons, offering a sustainable policy for seasonal groundwater rights redistribution amid market monitoring uncertainties.