یک رویکرد غیرمستقیم برآورد تمایل به پرداخت جرایم تخلفات سرعت در رانندگی

رانندگی با سرعت زیاد از مهمترین عوامل افزایش شدت و احتمال وقوع تصادفات است. از جمله رایج ترین و موثرترین عوامل بازدارنده در ارتکاب به تخلفات نقض مقررات سرعت مجاز، تعیین نوع و سطوح مناسب جرایم و اعمال موثر آن ها است. با این وجود، تاکنون در مورد سطح بازدارندگی جرایم، چگونگی واکنش رانندگان نسبت به افزایش جرایم و یا اعمال مکانیزم های جدید بازدارنده مطالعات زیادی انجام نپذیرفته است. پژوهش حاضر در زمره نخستین مطالعاتی است که در آن به مقایسه اثربخشی مکانیزم های مختلف بازدارندگی از تخلفات نقض سرعت مجاز (شامل جریمه نقدی، نمره منفی، توقیف خودرو و محرومیت اجتماعی) پرداخته شده است. بدین منظور از یک رویکرد غیرمستقیم آنالیز انتخاب گسسته و مدل سازی لوجیت ترکیبی برای محاسبه تمایل به پرداخت رانندگان برای جرایم تخلفات سرعت استفاده شد. پرسشنامه به روش طراحی آزمایش و با توجه به ملاحظات تعادل و تعامد طراحی گردید. پرسشگری به روش نمونه گیری در دسترس در سال 98 در میان دانشجویان دارای فعالیت رانندگی و در پردیس های کرج دانشگاه خوارزمی تهران، دانشکده های فنی دانشگاه تهران و دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد تهران-شرق انجام شد. در مجموع 550 پرسشنامه شامل 2004 انتخاب تکمیل گردید. نتایج حاکی از بازدارندگی بیشتر مکانیزم محرومیت اجتماعی (بر حسب واحد) نسبت به سایر مکانیزم های بازدارندگی از تخلفات سرعت می باشد. همچنین با افزایش سن، بازدارندگی مکانیزم های نقدی و نمره منفی کاهش و بازدارندگی محرومیت اجتماعی افزایش می یابد. یافته ها بر توسعه بیشتر سیاست های غیرپولی افزایش بازدارندگی جرایم مربوط به سرعت در آینده تاکید دارند.

an indirect approach to estimate the drivers’ willingness to pay for speeding violations

despite outstanding advances in automotive manufacturing and road construction industries, speeding still continues to contribute in increased frequency and severity of road crashes. efforts to improve traffic safety have been primarily focused on safer roads and safer vehicles. in spite of these efforts, penalty charges and other sanctions have been shown to be an effective deterrent in changing road users' behaviour. strengthening deterrence of speeding requires imposing effective penalties for non-compliance with speed limits, as well as effective enforcement of the legislation. yet, different monetary and non-monetary penalties have been proposed for offensive drivers. the literature, however, lacks evidence on relative deterrence of existingpenalties and the way the drivers respond to new forms of penalty systems. this study is among the first thatinvestigated relative deterrence of different speeding penalties including “monetary fines”, “demerit point”,“car detention”, and “social deprivation”. a questionnaire was designed based on choice experiment method (cem) with considerations of balance and orthogonality. convenience sampling method was used to collect data in campuses of kharazmi university in karaj, college of engineering in university of tehran, and east tehran branch of islamic azad university. these campuses are among the largest university campuses in the country. sample was recruited from those who had a driving license and were active drivers. a total of 550 questionnaires including 2004 choices were conducted (response rate: 91.1%). most of respondents were male(70 percent) and aged less than 26 years old (82.6 percent). in 60 percent of cases the driving license wasobtained in less than five years. 62 percent of respondents reported that they drove their cars less than 20 hours a week. 67 percent of male respondents and 29 percent of female respondents reported that they pay the traffic ticket on their own. using an indirect approach, we conducted a mixed logit (ml) model to estimate thedrivers’ willingness to pay (wtp) for non-monetary speeding penalties. results showed that the investigated speeding penalties corresponded to disutility of committing the speeding violation, indicating that an increase in each of these penalties increases the expected cost of violating the speeding laws. different penalties would induce different levels of different levels of disutility to commit speeding violations. results revealed that“social deprivation” would offer stronger level of deterrence, followed by car detention, demerit point, and monetary fine, respectively. this finding is consistent with previous research showing that deterrence effect of increased monetary fines would be only of a limited magnitude, in the absence of non-monetary punishments. results showed that compared to female drivers, monetary fines are more deterring for male drivers. car detention was shown to be more deterring for those using their cars 20 or more hours a week. increase in age was shown to be associated with reduced deterrence related to both monetary fines and demeritpoint. however, deterrence due to social deprivation increase with increase in drivers’ age. findingsrecommend that future policies and procedures be not limited to increasing monetary fines, and take advantage of other non-monetary punishing mechanisms such as demerit point, car detention, and social deprivation.