دولت شکننده‌ی افغانستان و تهدیدات امنیتی آن برای جمهوری اسلامی ایران (با تاکید بر بازه زمانی 2021 به بعد)

کشور افغانستان را باید یکی از مهم ترین کشورها با دولتی شکننده در دنیای امروز دانست. کشوری که تحت حاکمیت طالبان با اندیشه و عمل خاص زمینه ی تهدیدات امنیتی و اقتصادی و سیاسی-اجتماعی متعددی در داخل و خارج کشور خود شده اند. ایران با داشتن مرزهای طولانی مشترک در خط مقدم مواجهه با نتایج ناکارآمدی و شکنندگی دولت افغانستان طی چند دهه ی اخیر بوده است؛ با توجه به این موضوع مقاله حاضر با  تاکید بر تاثیرات امنیتی این کشور بر جمهوری اسلامی ایران به دنبال پاسخگویی به این سئوال است که پس از روی کار آمدن مجدد طالبان در افغانستان وضعیت شکننده‌ی دولت افغانستان موجب چه تهدیدات و چالشهای امنیتی برای جمهوری اسلامی ایران شده است و برای کاهش این تهدیدات چه راهکاری وجود دارد؟ در پاسخ به این سئوال به عنوان فرضیه باید گفت وضعیت شکننده و بی‌ثبات دولت افغانستان ذیل حاکمیت طالبان در مدیریت و حل چالشهایی خود باعث شده است تا تهدیداتی چون رفتار طالبان با شیعیان افغانستان، رویکرد قوم گرایانه و انحصاری در تشکیل دولت، گسترش فعالیت‌های تروریستی، تامین امنیت مرزها، مهاجرت غیررسمی مهاجرین افغانی، مساله حقابه هیرمند و قاچاق موادمخدر از مهمترین تهدیدات امنیتی افغانستان برای ایران است؛ یافته‌های پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که بر وجود چالش‌های مذکور به عنوان تهدیدات امنیتی برای ایران صحه گذاشته و مداخله سازمان‌های بین المللی با همراهی و مشارکت کشورهای همسایه افغانستان و  قدرتهای فرامنطقه ای به منظور تقویت کارآمدی و قدرت دولت در افغانستان در چارچوب اعمال دکترین‌ مسئولیت‌ حمایت‌ می تواند اثرات این تهدیدات امنیتی را برای ایران کاهش دهد. پژوهش حاضر براساس روش توصیفی- تحلیلی بوده و داده های آن به صورت کتابخانه ای جمع آوری شده است.

the fragile state of afghanistan and its security threats to the islamic republic of iran (focusing on the time period from 2021 onwards)

afghanistan must be considered one of the most important countries with a fragile government in today's world. a country under taliban rule with specific ideologies and actions has become a source of numerous security, economic, and socio-political threats both domestically and internationally. iran, with its long shared borders, has been on the front lines facing the consequences of afghanistan's government inefficacy and fragility for several decades. with this in mind, the current article, focusing on the security impacts of this country on the islamic republic of iran, seeks to answer the question: what threats and security challenges has the fragile state of afghanistan caused for the islamic republic of iran following the taliban's return to power, and what solutions exist to mitigate these threats? in response to this question, it must be hypothesized that the fragile and unstable situation of the afghan government under taliban rule in managing and solving its challenges has led to threats such as taliban behavior towards afghan shiites, ethnocentric and exclusive approaches in forming the government, the expansion of terrorist activities, securing borders, irregular migration of afghan migrants, issues regarding the water rights of the helmand river, and drug trafficking as the most significant security threats to iran from afghanistan. the research findings affirm that the presence of these challenges as security threats to iran is acknowledged, and intervention by international organizations along with the cooperation of neighboring countries of afghanistan and extra-regional powers to enhance the efficacy and power of the state in afghanistan within the framework of the responsibility to protect doctrine could reduce the effects of these security threats for iran. the current research is based on a descriptive-analytical method, and its data has been collected through library resources.introductionthe transition of power in afghanistan has led to significant changes in its governance structure, with the taliban assuming control. this study evaluates the resulting state of governance, focusing on the aspects of political instability and weak state capacity that threaten both internal security and developmental prospects.main bodysince the taliban's takeover, afghanistan has faced numerous governance challenges, including a lack of international recognition and internal legitimacy. the research highlights key areas where governance has faltered, particularly in ensuring security, providing basic services, and maintaining economic stability.security challenges: the paper examines how the absence of a robust security infrastructure has led to increased internal conflicts and threats from various insurgent groups. the lack of effective policing and military oversight has exacerbated the security vacuum, leading to widespread instability.administrative challenges: the study delves into the administrative issues plaguing the country, such as corruption, inefficiency, and the absence of skilled personnel in critical sectors. these problems are compounded by the international community's hesitance to engage directly with the taliban-led government, resulting in limited foreign aid and support.humanitarian and developmental issues: the paper also addresses the dire humanitarian situation, marked by poverty, displacement, and lack of access to essential services like healthcare and education. the economic downturn, exacerbated by sanctions and the cessation of international aid, has led to a crisis situation with severe implications for the civilian population.the research methodology includes interviews with local officials, international experts on afghan politics, and analysis of secondary data from international organizations. the findings indicate a critical need for establishing a more inclusive government that can address the myriad challenges facing the state.conclusionthe study concludes that afghanistan's current governance crisis requires urgent international attention and cooperation. recommendations include the need for a structured international engagement strategy that does not compromise on human rights and governance standards. the research underscores the importance of building a governance framework that is inclusive, transparent, and capable of addressing the complex socio-economic challenges faced by the country.overall, this detailed analysis provides insights into the challenges of rebuilding state capacity in afghanistan under the taliban's rule. it highlights the urgent need for comprehensive strategies to stabilize the country and ensure a sustainable future for its people.