شناسایی عوامل کلیدی موثر بر شکوفایی شهری با رویکرد آیند‌ه‌نگاری(مطالعه موردی: شهر تهران)

چالش‌های زندگی نوین شهری نظیر؛ رقابت بین شهرها و نواحی شهری، پایداری شهری، نیاز به استفاده از فرصت­ها و دوری از تهدیدها در تحولات اجتماعی و فرهنگی، تغییرات جمعیتی انبوه و مشکلات محیطی و اجتماعی موجب روی آوردن به رویکرد آینده‌نگاری در برنامه­ریزی شهری و بهره‌گیری از ابزارهای گوناگون برای ساختن آینده مطلوب در شهرها شده است. هدف اصلی این پژوهش شناسایی و تحلیل عوامل کلیدی موثر بر توسعه و شکوفایی شهری با رویکرد آینده­نگاری است. این پژوهش از نظر روش توصیفی-تحلیلی و از نظر هدف کاربردی است و عوامل کلیدی موثر بر شکوفایی شهر تهران را با رویکرد آینده‌نگاری مورد‌مطالعه قرار می‌دهد. جامعه آماری پژوهش حاضر از کلیه کارشناسان و نخبگان حوزه مدیریت شهری و برنامه‌ریزی شهری تشکیل و حجم نمونه بر اساس مدل کوکران تعداد سی نفر تخمین زده شده است. در این پژوهش پس از مصاحبه با صاحب نظران، به منظور کدگذاری و ارزیابی داده‌ها از مدل آزمون میانگین در نرم افزار spss و به‌منظور تحلیل سناریوهای موجود از نرم افزار micmac استفاده گردید. براساس یافته‌های پژوهش، وضعیت اقتصادی و مدیریت شهری، مهم‌ترین عوامل پیشران موثر بر توسعه و شکوفایی شهر تهران است و در نهایت دو عامل وضعیت اقتصادی و مدیریت شهری به‌عنوان دو محور اصلی جهت ارائه سناریوها تعیین شدند. بنابراین چهار سناریو برای آینده توسعه کلانشهر تهران، قابل توصیف است که عبارتند از بهبود وضعیت اقتصادی و مدیریت یکپارچه شهری (تهران پایدار)، بهبود وضعیت اقتصادی و مدیریت چندگانه شهری (تهران توانمند)، رکود اقتصادی و مدیریت چندگانه شهری (تهران آسیب‌پذیر) و رکود اقتصادی و مدیریت یکپارچه شهری (تهران ناپایدار) که سناریوی اول مطلوب است و سایر سناریوها به سوی وضعیت مناسبی پیش می‌رود که مطابق با آن راهبردها در ابعاد محیطی، اقتصادی، کالبدی-فناوری، اجتماعی و اداری سیاسی ارائه شده‌اند.

identifying key factors affecting urban prosperity with futuristic approach (case study: tehran)

identifying key factors affecting urban prosperity with a foresight approach (case study: tehran) zeynab alamati* alireza kaldi**mehrdad navabakhsh*** half of the world's 7.7 billion people live in cities. in such a way that the accelerated process of urban population growth، urbanization and the emergence of megacities has put human societies in an unbalanced situation.therefore، it is necessary to pay attention to the various dimensions of urban development and prosperity and basic planning for cities، and it has caused urban planners to look for new foresight approaches and use various tools to build a desirable future in cities.tehran is not an exception to this rule and is facing new needs، challenges، and in fact newer and more serious uncertainties that require preparation to manage them and the application of foresight science in line with the future development of urban spaces and identifying comprehensive solutions for managing urban development and solving problems.therefore، the approach of futurism by dealing with a wide range of future conditions by adopting participatory and reasoning approaches in the field of planning، emphasizes on finding the main and key factors and drivers of development and prosperity، so that uncertainties can be taken into account in the planning process and by having a control lever and managing the future، build a desirable future.the result of unbridled urban development of the metropolitan area of ​​tehran is considered the most important and strategic spatial area of ​​the country from various economic، social and political aspects، the occurrence of various challenges in the physical-spatial، social and economic fields، which shows the weakness of spatial planning on a macro scale.in this regard، the science of futurism by studying the trends seeks to identify drivers and uncertainties that will affect the future of the metropolis of tehran and is an important part of the concern of organizations، policy makers، decision makers and citizens.also، gaining a proper and collective understanding of the issues، trends and other future-making elements that can affect the metropolis of tehran، prosperity and strategic policy making for its future is extremely importantand which trend can shape the future of tehran، as well as formulating sustainable policies and strategies in the face of a complex future full of uncertainties، is very important in the success of the local government، the organization and the custodians of the affairs of the city of tehran. as a result، it is vital to be aware of what is happening and to identify emerging issues that may arise.this research aims to identify trends and identify uncertainties affecting the future of tehran city، identify and evaluate various drivers، scenarios and images of the possible future of tehran city development، and its main goal is to identify and analyze key factors affecting urban development and prosperity with a foresight approach. keywords: futurism، micmac، tehran ، urban development، uncertainty. materials and methodsthis research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of nature based on new prospective research methods. also a combination of scenario method، exploratory method and delphi method has been used. the method of collecting survey information and its tools is based on library study.the method of collecting information and the means of collecting it is a researcher-made questionnaire and interviews through the creation of expert groups using the delphi method. in the current research، the statistical population is all the experts، experts and urban managers of tehran municipality، of which 30 people have been estimated as the sample size based on cochran's model.depending on the type of statistical community، different methods can be used for sampling. in this research، the snowball sampling method was used، and in the descriptive statistics section، frequency percentage، average، etc. were used. in the inferential statistics section، due to the transformation of the research variables into pseudo-interval variables، the importance or presence of each feature was calculated based on the likert scale andthe score of each option was calculated by multiplying the score of each option and then by calculating the sum of the scores of the options، the score of each item was extracted. the formal validity of the research according to the opinions of experts in the fields of urban management and urban planning، and the reliability of the research was 0.72 based on cronbach's alpha test in spss software، which means good and acceptable reliability.in order to identify factors affecting the development and prosperity of tehran، the delphi interview method has been used as the main method; for this purpose، through library studies، the features، conditions and issues of the region were identified and based on the library and documentary findings، a questionnaire was prepared and distributed among the experts، who are known as expert panels in the delphi method.then the obtained data and the key factors identified by the elites were arranged in a 24 x 24 matrix in mic mac software and analyzed and the output was evaluated in line with the research objectives.in the next stage، the identified key factors were used to compile and present tehran's future development scenarios، and based on the identified factors of the driving forces، a scenario cross was drawn in order to present orthogonal scenarios، and according to the score of each scenario، the preferred scenario was finally selected and used to compile and draw the vision of the development of the city of tehran. resultsthe obtained results indicate that tehran metropolis is an unstable system. based on the analysis of mic mac software، among the 51 factors examined from the research literature and experts' opinions in this field، finally 12 factors were extracted as the key factors and forces for the development and prosperity of tehran.the result of the scatter plot of the variables affecting the key development forces of tehran shows that the system is in an unstable state، and except for a few limited factors that have a high impact on the system، the rest of the factors and variables are almost similar to each other.of these 12 final key factors، 4 variables are located in the first area or influential variables and 8 variables are located in the second area or two-way variables، where 2 variables of economic status and poverty are located in the dual area، 4 variables of social and spatial justice، good urban governance، citizen responsibility and improvement of the level of education and culture are located in the risk area and two variables of participation and security are located in the target area.also، no factor was selected from other influential and independent areas. also، based on the type، 6 economic factors، 4 social factors and 2 management factors were found، which indicates the role and importance of economic factors in the development of tehran city and its future development. in the next order، in order to form the axes of the scenario، the principle of combination of variables has been used;in this way، the variable of economic status، unemployment and poverty، which are three external-internal variables and are also thematically related (economic)، were considered as one of the axes of the scenario. the three variables of integrated urban management، good urban governance and social and spatial justice are three internal variables and are closely related to each other، so these three variables are combined and form another axis of the scenario.thus، the two axes of the scenario are: economic situation and integrated urban management. therefore، four scenarios for the future development of tehran metropolis can be described، which are: