آینده پژوهی توانمندسازی اقتصادی- اجتماعی روستاییان در تغییر الگوی معیشت (مطالعه موردی: روستاهای منطقه سیستان)

الگوی معیشت سنتی روستاها معمولاً‌ پاسخگوی زندگی مردم نبوده و لزوم تغییر آن با توانمندسازی اقتصادی- اجتماعی روستاییان اجتناب‌ناپذیر است. در این راستا رویکرد آینده‌پژوهشی با توانمندسازی‌ اقتصادی- اجتماعی می‌تواند بهره‌برداری خردمندانه از منابع و امکانات محلی را تسهیل نماید. پژوهش حاضر از نوع کاربردی است که با هدف آینده‌پژوهی توانمندسازی اقتصادی- اجتماعی روستاییان در تغییر الگوی معیشت در روستاهای سیستان انجام ‌شده است. روش تحقیق توصیفی – تحلیلی مبتنی بر بررسی‌های اسنادی، میدانی و تکمیل پرسشنامه بوده است. جامعه آماری تحقیق در واحد روستا، 796 نقطه روستایی در سیستان و در واحد خانوار، 60075 خانوار روستایی بود. حجم نمونه در واحد روستا با استفاده از فرمول اصلاحی شارپ 40 و در واحد خانوار، بر اساس فرمول کوکران 321 تعیین گردید. روایی پرسشنامه تدوین‌شده با استفاده از نظر کارشناسان خبره و پایایی آن با ضریب آلفای کرونباخ تائید گردید. تجزیه‌ و تحلیل داده‌های گردآوری‌شده با آزمون‌های مناسب نرم‌افزار spss انجام گردیده است. نتایج تحقیق نشان داد که بین توانمندسازی اقتصادی– اجتماعی روستاییان و تغییر الگوی معیشت آن‌ها رابطه معنادار وجود دارد. توانمندسازی اقتصادی با ضریب همبستگی 0.302 و توانمندسازی اجتماعی با ضریب همبستگی 0.112 می‌تواند در تغییر الگوی معیشت روستاییان سیستان در حال و آینده موثر ‌باشد.

futurology of socio-economic empowerment of villagers in changing the livelihood model (case study: villages in sistan area)

introduction empowering means encouraging people to participate more in decisions that affect their activities, that is, providing space for individuals so that they can create good ideas and turn them into action (evans,2010:234245) . so, with these intellectual and cultural revolutions in the village, the purpose of futurology is to: first, address the present, is what shapes the future; secondly, thinking about the future plays the role of recognizing the situation, that is, helping people detect yourself in the present and know where they are now. thirdly, the results of futurology allow individuals to measure their current demands with future demands. (shaban,2013:69). materials and methods the present research is applied in a descriptive-analytical manner in terms of its nature and method. information about the background of the research and the subject matter were prepared through documentary and library studies and inferential findings were made field by using questionnaires, interviews and visits. the statistical population of the study consisted of all rural households in sistan region using aspermman tests and simultaneous regression in spss software to answer the research question. also, gis software was used to study the futurology of scenario analysis and spatial analysis and drawing maps. results and discussion 35% of respondents from villagers in hirmand city, 15% of villagers in hamoon city, 25% of villagers in zahak city, 10% of villagers in zabol city and 15% of villagers in nimroz city; 76.9% of respondents were men and 23.1% women have formed. therefore, the villages of karbask, jazink and jalali with average of 2.19, 1.94 and 1.88 have got first to third rank of socio-economic potentials among economic indicators, early-stage occupations, handicrafts and low-interest credit loans with averages of 3.68, 3.55 and 3.39, respectively, are ranked first to third in economic empowerment of villagers in their livelihoods. among the social indicators, social participation, existence of service centers - extension and financial and financial security with averages of 3.64, 3.9 and 3.7, respectively, with first to third rank in social empowerment of villagers in changing their livelihoods are effective. economic empowerment of villagers has a significant effect on changing the livelihood pattern of villagers. correlation between independent variable and dependent variable is equal to 302/0 and the coefficient of determination is 551%, and this value shows that 55% of the changes of economic empowerment of villagers are effective in changing their livelihood pattern. and social empowerment of villagers also have a significant effect on changing the livelihood pattern of villagers the correlation between the independent variable and the dependent variable is equal to 112 and the coefficient of determination is 0.031 and this figure shows that 11% of the social empowerment changes of the villagers is effective in changing their livelihood pattern. conclusion economic empowerment of villagers has a significant effect on changing the livelihood pattern of villagers. the promotion of a unit of economic empowerment strategy will improve the standard deviation of the standard deviation of the standard deviation of the standard deviation of the livelihood model, thus having a positive relationship. social empowerment of the villagers also has a significant effect on changing the livelihood pattern of villagers. and promotion of a unit of social empowerment strategy will be enhanced by a standard deviation of standard deviation of livelihoods.