شناسایی و اولویت‌بندی پیشران‌های توسعه اقتصادی در ایران

تعیین پیشران های توسعۀ اقتصادی کشور و اولویت بندی آنها ، یکی از الزاماتاولیه سیاست گذاری و برنامه ریزی توسعۀ اقتصادی است. هدف اصلی این مطالعه شناسایی اصلی ترین پیشران توسعه اقتصادی کشور است. چارچوب مفهومی: در این پژوهش عوامل توسعه و رشد اقتصادی در رویکردهای متفاوت استخراج و در اختیار کارشناسان با رویکردهای متعدد قرار می گیرد و عوامل استخراج شده اجماعی از صاحب نظران را در مورد پیشران های رشد و توسعه اقتصادی به دست می دهد. روش: در این مطالعه با روش تحلیل محتوی، روش دلفی و روش تحلیل ساختاری پیشران های توسعه اقتصادی کشور شناسایی و اولویت بندی شده است. در گام نخست 40 عامل توسعه با روش تحلیل محتوی شناسایی و سپس با روش دلفی نظرات 19 نفر از کارشناسان توسعه کشور کسب شده است. تحلیل داده ها با استفاده از ماتریس اثرات متقابل و نرم افزار میک مک انجام شده است. یافته ها: شش پیشران توسعه کشور عبارت است از: بهبود تعاملات بین المللی و منطقه ای و اصلاح کیفیت نظام بروکراسی دولت، نظام تصمیم سازی و تصمیم گیری (ارتقاء آگاهی و افزایش کاربست علم، رهایی از تسخیرشدگی)، کیفیت نظام قضایی، ساختار اقتصادی و نیز حمایت از سرمایه گذاری داخلی بخش خصوصی. بررسی تاثیرات مستقیم نشان می دهد که پیشران نظام تصمیم گیری و تصمیم سازی تاثیر گذارترین است که به طور مستقیم بر اصلاح نظام بروکراسی موثر است. بررسی تاثیرات غیرمستقیم نیز نشان می دهد که نظام تصمیم گیری و تصمیم سازی به عنوان یک پیشران توسعه بر حمایت از سرمایه گذاری داخلی بخش خصوصی و اصلاح ساختار اقتصاد تاثیر می گذارد.

implementation of comprehensive economic development programs in iran

identifying and prioritizing the key drivers of a country's economic development is one of the primary prerequisites for policymaking and economic development planning. the main objective of this study is to identify the most significant drivers of the country's economic development. in this study, content analysis and structural analysis methods have been employed to identify and prioritize these economic development drivers.in the first stage, forty economic development factors were identified through content analysis. subsequently, expert opinions were gathered from nineteen leading specialists in economic development. to analyze the collected data, the cross-impact matrix and micmac software were utilized. the findings of the study indicate that the six main drivers of the country's economic development are as follows: (1) improving international and regional interactions and resolving conflicts, (2) reforming the quality of the government bureaucracy, (3) restructuring the decision-making process by enhancing awareness, increasing the application of scientific knowledge, and eliminating institutional capture, (4) improving the quality of the judiciary system, (5) restructuring the economic system, and (6) supporting domestic private sector investment. an examination of the direct effects of these drivers shows that the decision-making system is the most influential driver of economic development, as it directly impacts the reform of the bureaucratic system. additionally, an analysis of the indirect effects indicates that the decision-making system, as a key driver of economic development, significantly influences both private sector investment support and economic restructuring. keywords: economic development, economic growth, growth determinants, development factors, development drivers. the implementation of several comprehensive economic development programs in iran over the past few decades, along with the persistence of various economic challenges, highlights the fact that insufficient attention has been paid to the drivers and key issues facing the country's economic development. identifying these drivers will enable the optimal and efficient allocation of societal resources and capabilities, ensuring maximum benefits with minimal effort and cost. in this article, a driver refers to factors, contexts, and conditions that can significantly impact economic development and assist other factors in achieving their effects. thus, a development driver leads the factors that can realize economic development in the country.in the studies reviewed in this report, researchers have primarily adopted a futures studies approach to identify drivers and propose solutions for planning. the delphi method has been used in all studies, sometimes solely for identifying variables and other times for both identifying and prioritizing them. the difference in this study lies in the collection of factors, which was done in two stages: first through content analysis and then through expert workshops. the factors were then weighted and prioritized based on expert opinions, and finally placed in a structural matrix to determine direct and indirect effects, resulting in the identification of key drivers.theoretical frameworkthis study draws its theoretical framework from various theories, including solow's modern economic growth theory, community-based and equality-oriented perspectives such as those of gunnar myrdal, boeke, and amartya sen, structuralist perspectives, post-development views, the washington consensus, institutionalism, and perspectives based on social capital and behavioral economics. the framework integrates these theories, considering the consensus among different approaches in understanding the factors, contexts, and foundations of growth and development in iran. therefore, in this study, factors of economic development and growth were extracted based on various studies and approaches and presented to experts with diverse perspectives. the experts' opinions, informed by their understanding of iran's economic realities, provide a consensus on the drivers of economic growth and development. notably, this consensus also considers the direct and indirect effects of these factors on one another. research methodologythis study is a mixed-methods research, combining qualitative and quantitative models, and is descriptive, analytical, and applied in nature. data collection was conducted through documentary and survey methods, and qualitative analysis was performed using structural analysis. in the first step, approximately 410 factors and drivers affecting the country's economic development were identified through a review of documentary and library resources (articles, books, theses, and scientific reports). these factors were then refined by merging and removing duplicates and less significant items through expert workshops, resulting in 40 key factors.in the next step, the list of these factors and drivers was presented to prominent experts and specialists in the field of economic development in the form of a questionnaire. they were asked to weigh the factors based on their impact. the questionnaire was designed in three sections. in the first section, the 40 economic development factors extracted from content analysis were presented for weighting and determining their importance using a likert scale, and the most important factors were identified. in the second section, experts were asked to propose additional factors along with their importance coefficients. in the third section, they were asked to provide necessary comments and explanations to improve the process. after prioritizing the factors and drivers of economic development based on expert opinions, the six factors with the highest scores and impact were selected and presented again to the experts. in the second questionnaire, in addition to requesting a re-weighting of the factors, experts were asked to estimate the impact of each factor on the others using a pre-designed matrix. this was done to analyze the interactions between the drivers.the study's target population included experts and managers in the field of economic sciences and executive activities. in total, 19 participants contributed to the first stage of expert consultation (weighting factors and potentially revising the factor list), and 13 participants contributed to the second stage (re-weighting and completing the interaction matrix). findings
the delphi process revealed that six key factors were selected as the main drivers of economic development. these factors, in order of their higher average scores as determined by experts, are: