تاثیر عوامل اقلیمی و اقتصادی بر صنعت گردشگری در مناطق مختلف ایران (با روش حداقل مربعات معمولی پویا و گشتاور تعمیم یافته در دوره زمانی 1385 1397)

صنعت ﮔﺮدﺷﮕﺮی ﯾﮑﯽ از ﺑﺰرگﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﺻﻨﺎﯾﻊ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺗﯽ و از ﻣﻬﻢﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺖﻫﺎی اﻗﺘﺼﺎدی در ﺟﻬﺎن ﺑﻪ ﺷﻤﺎر ﻣﯽرود. ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎت زﯾﺎدی در راﺑﻄﻪ ﺑﺎ اﯾﻦ ﻣﻮﺿﻮع اﻧﺠﺎم ﺷﺪه ﮐﻪ اﻏﻠﺐ اﯾﻦ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎت ﺑﻪ ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ اﻗﻠﯿﻤﯽ و اﻗﺘﺼﺎدی ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮرت ﻣﺠﺰا ﭘﺮداﺧﺘﻪاﻧﺪ. ﻫﺪف اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﺗﺎﺛﯿﺮ ﻫﻤﺰﻣﺎن ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ اﻗﻠﯿﻤﯽ و اﻗﺘﺼﺎدی ﺑﺮ ﮔﺮدﺷﮕﺮی در ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ اﯾﺮان ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از دادهﻫﺎی ﭘﺎﻧﻞ در ﻃﯽ ﺳﺎلﻫﺎی 1385 ﺗﺎ 1397 اﺳﺖ.ﮐﺸﻮر اﯾﺮان ﺑﺮ اﺳﺎس ﻃﺒﻘﻪﺑﻨﺪی اﻗﻠﯿﻤﯽ ﺑﻪ 8 ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ اﻗﻠﯿﻤﯽ دﺳﺘﻪﺑﻨﺪی ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. در اﯾﻦ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ در ﺻﻮرت ﻋﺪم ﻫﻢاﻧﺒﺎﺷﺘﮕﯽ دادهﻫﺎ از روش gls اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺷﺪه و در ﺻﻮرت وﺟﻮد ﻫﻢاﻧﺒﺎﺷﺘﮕﯽ دادهﻫﺎ ﺑﺮای ﻫﺮ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ از روشﻫﺎی dols ﯾﺎ gmm اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﮐﻪ در ﺑﺴﯿﺎری از اﺳﺘﺎنﻫﺎ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎی اﻗﻠﯿﻤﯽ در ﮐﻨﺎر ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎی اﻗﺘﺼﺎدی اﺛﺮ ﻣﻌﻨﯽداری ﺑﺮ ﮔﺮدﺷﮕﺮی دارﻧﺪ. در واﻗﻊ در ﺗﻤﺎﻣﯽ اﺳﺘﺎنﻫﺎﯾﯽ ﮐﻪ ارزش اﻓﺰوده اﺳﺘﺎنﻫﺎ ﻣﻌﻨﯽدار ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ارزش اﻓﺰوده ﻣﻨﺠﺮ ﺑﻪ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﺗﻌﺪاد ﮔﺮدﺷﮕﺮان در ﺑﻠﻨﺪﻣﺪت ﻣﯽﺷﻮد. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺑﺮای ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎی اﻗﻠﯿﻤﯽ ﺑﯿﺎﻧﮕﺮ آن اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﺑﺎ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ دﻣﺎ ﺗﻌﺪاد ﮔﺮدﺷﮕﺮان در اﺳﺘﺎنﻫﺎی ﺧﺮاﺳﺎن رﺿﻮی، ﺧﺮاﺳﺎن ﺟﻨﻮﺑﯽ، ﺗﻬﺮان، ﺳﻤﻨﺎن، اﺻﻔﻬﺎن، ﮐﺮﻣﺎن و ﻣﺮﮐﺰی )اﻗﻠﯿﻢ ﮐﻮﻫﭙﺎﯾﻪﻫﺎی ﺷﺮﻗﯽ( اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﻣﯽﯾﺎﺑﺪ و ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ ﺑﺎ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﯿﺰان ﺑﺎرﻧﺪﮔﯽ اﺳﺘﺎنﻫﺎی ﻓﺎرس، اﯾﻠﺎم، ﻟﺮﺳﺘﺎن، ﮐﻬﮑﯿﻠﻮﯾﻪ و ﺑﻮﯾﺮاﺣﻤﺪ، ﺧﺮاﺳﺎن رﺿﻮی، ﺧﺮاﺳﺎن ﺟﻨﻮﺑﯽ، ﺗﻬﺮان، ﺳﻤﻨﺎن، اﺻﻔﻬﺎن، ﮐﺮﻣﺎن و ﻣﺮﮐﺰی)اﻗﻠﯿﻢ ﮐﻮﻫﭙﺎﯾﻪﻫﺎی ﺷﺮﻗﯽ و ﻏﺮﺑﯽ( ﺗﻌﺪاد ﮔﺮدﺷﮕﺮان ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮی را ﭘﺬﯾﺮا ﺧﻮاﻫﻨﺪ ﺑﻮد. ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮاﯾﻦ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻣﯽﺗﻮان ﮔﻔﺖ ﮐﻪ ﺑﺎﯾﺴﺘﯽ در ﻫﻨﮕﺎم ﺟﺬب ﮔﺮدﺷﮕﺮ ﻋﻠﺎوه ﺑﺮ ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدی ﺑﻪ ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ اﻗﻠﯿﻤﯽ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ داﺷﺘﻪ و ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﺳﻔﺮ را ﺑﻪ ﮔﻮﻧﻪای ﺗﻨﻈﯿﻢ ﻧﻤﻮد ﮐﻪ در زﻣﺎن ﺳﻔﺮ ﻣﯿﺰان ﺑﺎرﻧﺪﮔﯽ ﮐﻤﺘﺮ و دﻣﺎ ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﺗﺎ ﺣﺪاﮐﺜﺮ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده را از زﻣﺎن ﺳﻔﺮ ﮐﺴﺐ ﻧﻤﻮد و ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ ﭘﯿﺸﻨﻬﺎد ﻣﯽﺷﻮد در ﻓﺼﻮل ﮔﺮم ﮐﻪ دﻣﺎ ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮ و ﺑﺎرﻧﺪﮔﯽ ﮐﻤﺘﺮ اﺳﺖ اﺳﺘﺎنﻫﺎی ﺧﺮاﺳﺎن رﺿﻮی، ﺧﺮاﺳﺎن ﺟﻨﻮﺑﯽ، ﺗﻬﺮان، ﺳﻤﻨﺎن، اﺻﻔﻬﺎن، ﮐﺮﻣﺎن و ﻣﺮﮐﺰی(اﻗﻠﯿﻢ ﮐﻮﻫﭙﺎﯾﻪﻫﺎی ﺷﺮﻗﯽ) ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان ﻣﻘﺼﺪ ﮔﺮدﺷﮕﺮی در ﮐﺸﻮر اﻧﺘﺨﺎب ﺷﻮد.

the effect of climatic and economic factors on the tourism industry in different regions of iran (with the method of dynamic ordinary least squares and generalized method of moment in the period 2008 2018)

the tourism industry is one of the largest service industries and one of the most important economic activities in the world. there are many studies on this subject, most of which have studied the climatic and economic factors seperately. in this study, we want to examine the simultaneous effects of economic and climatic factors on tourism. in this regard, panel data was collected for 30 provinces of iran during the years 2006 to 2018. these provinces were classified in seven regions and each region is individually examined. given the cointegration analysis results, we were using panel data or dols or gmm procedures, for each region. in general, according to the results, in many provinces, climate variables have a significant effect on tourism along with economic variables. in fact, in all provinces where provincial value added has been significant, value added leads to an increase in the number of tourists in the long run. results for climate variables show that with increasing temperature, the number of tourists in provinces of khorasan razavi, south khorasan, tehran, semnan, isfahan, kerman, markazi, sistan and baluchestan, yazd, qom, bushehr, hormozgan, khuzestan provinces increases. the increase in raining in the autumn and winter seasons in the provinces of mazandaran and gilan are among the provinces with the highest number of tourists and fars, ilam, lorestan, kohkiloyehr and boyer ahmad provinces will have fewer tourists in these seasons.