الویت‌بندی عوامل موثر و پهنه‌بندی حساسیت نسبت به رخداد زمین‌لغزش با استفاده از مدل‌های حداکثر آنتروپی و دمپسترشفر در حوضه دوآب‌صمصامی چهارمحال و بختیاری

مدلﺳﺎزی و ﭘﯿﺶﺑﯿﻨﯽ رﺧﺪاد زﻣﯿﻦﻟﻐﺰشﻫﺎ در ﺗﺼﻤﯿﻢﮔﯿﺮی و ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪرﯾﺰی ﻣﺤﯿﻄﯽ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر ﺟﻠﻮﮔﯿﺮی از ﺗﺨﺮﯾﺐ ﻋﺮﺻﻪﻫﺎی ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﻃﺒﯿﻌﯽ ﺧﺼﻮﺻﺎً در ﻧﻮاﺣﯽ ﮐﻮﻫﺴﺘﺎﻧﯽ از اﻫﻤﯿﺖ وﯾﮋهای ﺑﺮﺧﻮردار اﺳﺖ. ﻫﺪف اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ اوﻟﻮﯾﺖﺑﻨﺪی ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﻣﻮﺛﺮ، ﭘﻬﻨﻪﺑﻨﺪی و ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ ﺣﺴﺎﺳﯿﺖ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ رﺧﺪاد زﻣﯿﻦﻟﻐﺰش ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از روشﻫﺎی آﻣﺎری اﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺗﯽ دو ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮه ﺣﺪاﮐﺜﺮآﻧﺘﺮوﭘﯽ و دﻣﭙﺴﺘﺮﺷﻔﺮ در ﺣﻮزه آﺑﺨﯿﺰ دوآب ﺻﻤﺼﺎﻣﯽ اﺳﺘﺎن ﭼﻬﺎرﻣﺤﺎل و ﺑﺨﺘﯿﺎری ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ. ﺑﺪﯾﻦﻣﻨﻈﻮر ﭘﺲ از ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﯾﯽ، ﺗﻬﯿﻪ و آﻣﺎدهﺳﺎزی ﻧﻘﺸﻪ 15 ﻋﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻮﺛﺮ ﺑﺮ رﺧﺪاد زﻣﯿﻦﻟﻐﺰش ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎی ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻞ و ﻧﻘﺸﻪ ﭘﺮاﮐﻨﺶ زﻣﯿﻦﻟﻐﺰش ﺑﻪﻋﻨﻮان ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ واﺑﺴﺘﻪ ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﻓﺮاواﻧﯽ (fr) و ﻧﻘﺸﻪ ﭘﺮاﮐﻨﺶ زﻣﯿﻦﻟﻐﺰشﻫﺎ در ﻣﺤﯿﻂ 10.8®arcgis اﻗﺪام ﺑﻪ وزندﻫﯽ ﯾﺎ ﮐﻤﯽ ﮐﺮدن آﻧﻬﺎ ﮔﺮدﯾﺪ. دادهﻫﺎی ﭘﺮاﮐﻨﺶ زﻣﯿﻦﻟﻐﺰش ﺑﻪ دو دﺳﺘﻪ داده آﻣﻮزﺷﯽ و آزﻣﺎﯾﺸﯽ ﺑﺎ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ 70 و 30 درﺻﺪ ﺑﻪﺗﺮﺗﯿﺐ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر اﺟﺮا و اﻋﺘﺒﺎرﺳﻨﺠﯽ ﺑﺼﻮرت ﺗﺼﺎدﻓﯽ ﺗﻘﺴﯿﻢ ﺷﺪﻧﺪ. ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از 15 ﻋﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻮﺛﺮ و ﻧﻘﺸﻪ ﭘﺮاﮐﻨﺶ زﻣﯿﻦﻟﻐﺰشﻫﺎ ﻣﺪلﻫﺎی ﺣﺪاﮐﺜﺮآﻧﺘﺮوﭘﯽ و دﻣﭙﺴﺘﺮﺷﻔﺮ اﺟﺮا و ﻧﻘﺸﻪﻫﺎی ﭘﻬﻨﻪﺑﻨﺪی ﺣﺴﺎﺳﯿﺖ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ رﺧﺪاد زﻣﯿﻦﻟﻐﺰش ﺗﻬﯿﻪ و ﻫﺮ ﮐﺪام ﺑﻪ ﭘﻨﺞ رده ﺣﺴﺎﺳﯿﺖ از ﺧﯿﻠﯽﮐﻢ ﺗﺎ ﺧﯿﻠﯽزﯾﺎد ﺗﻘﺴﯿﻢ ﺷﺪﻧﺪ. ﺑﻪﻣﻨﻈﻮر ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ دﻗﺖ ﻃﺒﻘﻪﺑﻨﺪی و اﻋﺘﺒﺎرﺳﻨﺠﯽ ﻣﺪلﻫﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﯿﺐ از ﻧﻤﻮدار ﺷﺎﺧﺺﻫﺎی ﻧﺴﺒﺖ فراوانی-ﺳﻄﺢ ﺳﻠﻮلﻫﺴﺘﻪ (fr&scai) و ﺳﻄﺢ زﯾﺮ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﯽ وﯾﮋﮔﯽ ﻋﻤﻠﮑﺮد ﮔﯿﺮﻧﺪه (auc-roc) اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺷﺪ. ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ اﺟﺮای ﻣﺪل حداﮐﺜﺮآﻧﺘﺮوﭘﯽ، ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﺑﺎرش ﺳﺎﻟﯿﺎﻧﻪ، ﺳﻨﮓﺷﻨﺎﺳﯽ، ﻓﺎﺻﻠﻪ از ﺟﺎده و آﺑﺮاﻫﻪ، ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﯿﺐ ﺑﯿﺶﺗﺮﯾﻦ اﻫﻤﯿﺖ را در رﺧﺪاد زﻣﯿﻦﻟﻐﺰشﻫﺎ دارﻧﺪ. در ﻫﺮ دو ﻣﺪل، ﺑﯿﺶ از 50 درﺻﺪ زﻣﯿﻦﻟﻐﺰشﻫﺎ در ردهﻫﺎی ﺣﺴﺎﺳﯿﺖ زﯾﺎد و ﺧﯿﻠﯽزﯾﺎد رخ دادهاﻧﺪ. ﻧﻬﺎﯾﺘﺎً ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ اﻋﺘﺒﺎرﺳﻨﺠﯽ ﻣﺪلﻫﺎ ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﻣﺪل دﻣﭙﺴﺘﺮﺷﻔﺮ ﺑﺎ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ auc-roc ﻣﻌﺎدل 0/95 و دﻗﺖ ﻃﺒﻘﻪﺑﻨﺪی ﺑﺎ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ fr&scai ﺑﯿﺶﺗﺮ، ﮐﺎرآﻣﺪی و ﻣﻄﻠﻮﺑﯿﺖ ﺑﯿﺶﺗﺮی ﺑﺮای ﭘﻬﻨﻪﺑﻨﺪی، ﻣﺪلﺳﺎزی و ﭘﯿﺶﺑﯿﻨﯽ رﺧﺪاد زﻣﯿﻦﻟﻐﺰشﻫﺎ در ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﻣﻮرد ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ دارا ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ.

prioritization of effective parameters and landslide susceptibility zonation using maximum entropy and dempster shafer in doab samsami, chaharmahal bakhtiyari

the aim of this study is to prioritize effective factors, landslide susceptibility zonation assessment using maximum entropy (maxent) and dempster shafer models in doab samsami watershed of chaharmahal and bakhtiari province. for this purpose, 15 factor maps affecting landslide occurrence as independent variables and landslide distribution map as a dependent variable were prepared and weighted using frequency ratio index (fr) and landslide distribution map in the environment arcgis® 10.8 . in order to implementation and validation of models, landslide distribution data were randomly divided into two categories of training and test data in the proportion of 70 and 30%, respectively. maximum entropy (maxent) and dempster shaffer models are performed and landslide susceptibility zonation maps are prepared and each model is divided into five very low to very high. in order to evaluate the classification accuracy and validation of the models, the frequency ratio and seed cell area index (fr&scai) and the area under receiver characteristic curve (aucroc) were used, respectively. according to the results of the maximum entropy model, annual precipitation factors, lithology, distance to road and drainage land use are important in landslide occurrence, respectively. according to landslide susceptibility zonation maps in both models, more than 50% of landslides occurred in high and very high susceptibility categories. finally, the validation results of the models showed that the demester shafer model with aucroc index of 0.95 and classification accuracy with higher fr & scai index, greater efficiency and desirability for zoning, modeling and landslide prediction in the study area.