روابط چین و عربستان در دوران گذار نظام بین الملل و پیامدهای آن بر جمهوری اسلامی ایران

با سربرآوردن چین در مقام قدرتی جهانی و پدیدارشدن نشانه های تحول در نظم بین الملل پس از جنگ سرد، عربستان به عنوان یکی از کنشگران مهم منطقه‌ای، با درک چنین برداشتی بر آن شده است تا مناسبات تجاری جدیدی را با پکن پی ریزی کند. بر این اساس، رهبران عربستان سعودی هم‌زمان با کوشش برای کاهش وابستگی دیپلماتیک و اقتصادی به آمریکا، به دنبال فاصله‌گرفتن از مبادله سنتی امنیت – انرژی با ایالات متحده، بازی میان خطوط و احیای توازن در مناسبات خارجی خویش هستند. با در نظر داشت چنین تحولی، پرسش اصلی پژوهش پیشِ رو آن است که چگونه راهبرد اقتصادی نوین عربستان در تعامل با چین و در ساختار جدید نظم بین المللی، منافع ملی جمهوری اسلامی ایران را تحت تاثیر قرار داده است؟ نویسندگان با اتخاذ رویکرد توصیفی – تحلیلی و با بهره‌گیری از روش کتابخانه‌ای در گردآوری داده‌ها و نظریه واقع‌گرایی نئوکلاسیک برای تحلیل داده‌ها، سعی بر آن دارند تا به این پرسش پاسخ دهند. یافته‌های پژوهش بیانگر آن است که کوشش «ریاض» جهت توسعه مناسبات با چین، متاثر از ادراک راهبردی نوین مقامات سعودی از تحولات ساختاری نظام بین‌الملل، قدرت نسبی عربستان در نظم چندقطبی آینده نظام بین‌الملل و توان اقتصادی ریاض است و تناظر زمانی ابتکار کمربند-راه و چشم‌انداز 2030 ‌می‌تواند بستر همکاری نزدیک ریاض-پکن را فراتر از حوزه انرژی فراهم کرده و منافع جمهوری اسلامی ایران را تحت تاثیر قرار دهد.

china-saudi relations during the transition period of the international system and its consequences on the islamic republic of iran

with the rise of china as a world power and the emergence of signs of change in the international order after the cold war, saudi arabia, as one of the important regional actors, has decided to establish new trade relations with beijing. the expansion of relations between actors within the framework of the international system is based on the discovery of the need and, subsequently, the provision of mutual benefits, and the development of beijing-riyadh relations also follows the above principle. china’s increasing need for energy resources and the security of its transmission lines, the need to diversify sources of energy imports and the need to reduce the dependence on imported oil from the strait of malacca, and saudi arabia’s effort to develop its diplomatic and economic partners in line with moving towards a foreign policy and a balanced trade balance, are driving forces to expand relations and the factor of beijing’s special view on riyadh in its economic-diplomatic activism in the persian gulf region. this expansion of relations occurs in a situation where the united states, feeling increasingly threatened by china’s rise to power, has followed the strategy of pivoting to asia since the obama era and has reduced its dependence on middle eastern energy to a strict focus on west asia. america’s unsuccessful experience or lack of commitment in helping its regional allies, the perception of regional arab leaders regarding america’s support for islamic awakening developments, the belief of regional arabs regarding washington’s passivity in the face of iran’s regional presence, obama’s nuclear agreement with iran and biden’s attempt to revive it, reducing the american physical presence and weapons in the region, such as the gathering of the thaad system in saudi arabia in early 2021, the multiplicity of world economic power sources and the economic development of china, and the relative weakening of american economic hegemony and the reduction of its distance from the world’s competitors, they are the most important variables that have forced saudi arabia, as a middle power in the region, to revise its strategic perception and finally adjust the foundations of its foreign policy towards balancing economic-diplomatic relations and reducing dependence on a single hegemon. in this framework, the perception of the saudi authorities towards the non-constructive activism of the united states during the developments of the islamic awakening, strengthened the will of riyadh to move towards the balancing of political, economic and security relations, among which, china, considering the all-round growth of its capabilities in recent years, it was considered the first option. the unveiling of saudi arabia’s 2030 development initiative and china’s belt and road initiative in 2013, which involved connecting china to europe by passing through central asia and the middle east through ports, railways, and land routes, led to the development of china’s relations with arab states in the region. in this regard, based on the belt and road initiative, china has signed a strategic partnership agreement with 12 arab countries of the region and a cooperation document of the belt and road initiative with 20 arab-speaking countries of the region.accordingly, while trying to reduce diplomatic and economic dependence on the united states, the leaders of saudi arabia seek to distance themselves from the traditional security-energy exchange with the united states, play between the lines, and restore balance in their foreign relations.