سناریوهای تصمیم‌گیری به کمک هوش مصنوعی در سازمان‌ها

زﻣﯿﻨﻪ و ﻫﺪف: اﺗﺨﺎذ ﺗﺼﻤﯿﻤﺎت ﺻﺤﯿﺢ، ﯾﮑﯽ از ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﮐﻠﯿﺪی و ﺗﻌﯿﯿﻦﮐﻨﻨﺪه ﻣﻮﻓﻘﯿﺖ ﺳﺎزﻣﺎنﻫﺎﺳﺖ. ﻫﻤﻮاره ﺗﻼشﻫﺎﯾﯽ ﺑﺮای ﺑﻬﺒﻮد ﻓﺮاﯾﻨﺪ ﺗﺼﻤﯿﻢﮔﯿﺮی در ﺳﺎزﻣﺎنﻫﺎ اﻧﺠﺎم ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﺑﺎ رﺷﺪ ﺳﺮﯾﻊ ﺑﺎزار ﻫﻮش ﻣﺼﻨﻮﻋﯽ، ﺳﺎزﻣﺎنﻫﺎ ﺑﻪﻃﻮر ﮔﺴﺘﺮدهای از اﯾﻦ ﻓﻨﺎوری ﺑﺮای ﭘﺸﺘﯿﺒﺎﻧﯽ و ﺑﻬﯿﻨﻪﺳﺎزی ﺗﺼﻤﯿﻢﮔﯿﺮیﻫﺎی ﺧﻮد اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﻣﯽﮐﻨﻨﺪ. در اﯾﻦ ﻣﯿﺎن، اﻣﯿﺪﻫﺎ و ﻧﮕﺮاﻧﯽﻫﺎی زﯾﺎدی درﺑﺎره آﯾﻨﺪه ﺗﺼﻤﯿﻢﮔﯿﺮی ﺑﺎ ﮐﻤﮏ ﻫﻮش ﻣﺎﺷﯿﻨﯽ در ﺳﺎزﻣﺎنﻫﺎ ﻣﻄﺮح اﺳﺖ. اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺑﻪ ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ و ﺗﺒﯿﯿﻦ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎﯾﯽ از آﯾﻨﺪه ﺗﺼﻤﯿﻢﮔﯿﺮی ﺑﺎ ﺑﻬﺮهﮔﯿﺮی از ﻫﻮش ﻣﺼﻨﻮﻋﯽ ﻣﯽﭘﺮدازد. روشﺷﻨﺎﺳﯽ: اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺑﺎ روﯾﮑﺮد آﯾﻨﺪهﭘﮋوﻫﯽ و ﺑﻬﺮهﮔﯿﺮی از روش »ﺷﺒﮑﻪ ﮐﺴﺐوﮐﺎر ﺟﻬﺎنی« ﺑﻪ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎ ﭘﺮداﺧﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ. اﺑﺘﺪا دادهﻫﺎی ﺣﺎﺻﻞ از ادﺑﯿﺎت و ﻣﺼﺎﺣﺒﻪﻫﺎی ﻧﯿﻤﻪﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎرﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺧﺒﺮﮔﺎن، ﺑﺎ روش ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﻣﻀﻤﻮن، ﺷﻨﺎﺳﻪﮔﺬاری و در ﻫﻔﺪه دﺳﺘﻪ ﻃﺒﻘﻪﺑﻨﺪی ﺷﺪ. ﺳﭙﺲ ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﻣﺎﺗﺮﯾﺲ اﺛﺮات ﻣﺘﻘﺎﺑﻞ )ﻧﺮماﻓﺰار مﯾﮏﻣﮏ( و ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ ﺧﺒﺮﮔﺎن، دو ﭘﯿﺸﺮان ﻣﻨﺘﺨﺐ ﺑﺮ اﺳﺎس اﻫﻤﯿﺖ و ﻋﺪمﻗﻄﻌﯿﺖ ﺑﺮای ﺳﺎﺧﺖ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ ﺗﻌﯿﯿﻦ ﺷﺪ. درﻧﻬﺎﯾﺖ، ﺑﺮ ﭘﺎﯾﻪ اﯾﻦ دو ﭘﯿﺸﺮان اﺻﻠﯽ، ﭼﻬﺎر ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ ﺗﺪوﯾﻦ ﺷﺪ. ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪﻫﺎ: در اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ، اﺑﺘﺪا ﻫﻔﺪه ﭘﯿﺸﺮان ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮﮔﺬار ﺑﺮ ﺗﺼﻤﯿﻢﮔﯿﺮی ﻫﻮش ﻣﺎﺷﯿﻨﯽ در ﺳﺎزﻣﺎنﻫﺎ، ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﯾﯽ و ﺑﺎ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﺛﺮات ﻣﺘﻘﺎﺑﻞ در ﻧﺮماﻓﺰار ﻣﯿﮏﻣﮏ، دو ﻋﺪمﻗﻄﻌﯿﺖ ﮐﻠﯿﺪی )ﺗﻮاﻧﺎﯾﯽ ﺗﺼﻤﯿﻢﮔﯿﺮی ﻫﻮش ﻣﺼﻨﻮﻋﯽ در ﻣﻘﺎﯾﺴﻪ ﺑﺎ اﻧﺴﺎن و ﮔﺴﺘﺮدﮔﯽ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﻫﻮش ﻣﺼﻨﻮﻋﯽ ﺑﺮای ﺗﺼﻤﯿﻢﮔﯿﺮی( ﮔﺰﯾﻨﺶ ﺷﺪ. ﺑﺮ اﺳﺎس اﯾﻦ دو ﻣﺤﻮر، ﭼﻬﺎر ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ: اﻧﺴﺎن در ﺣﺎﺷﯿﻪ، ﺳﺮاب ﻫﻮش ﻣﺎﺷﯿﻨﯽ، اﻧﺴﺎن ارﺑﺎب ﺗﺼﻤﯿﻢﮔﯿﺮی و ﻓﺮﺻﺖﻫﺎی ازدﺳﺖرﻓﺘﻪ، ﺑﻪدﺳﺖ آﻣﺪ. ﻫﺮ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ، آﯾﻨﺪهای ﻣﺘﻔﺎوت از ﻧﻘﺶ اﻧﺴﺎن و ﻫﻮش ﻣﺼﻨﻮﻋﯽ در ﺗﺼﻤﯿﻢﮔﯿﺮی ﺳﺎزﻣﺎﻧﯽ را ﺗﺮﺳﯿﻢ ﻣﯽﮐﻨﺪ. ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮی ﻣﯿﺎﻧﯽ ﻧﯿﺰ ﻫﻢزﯾﺴﺘﯽ ﻫﻮش ﻣﺼﻨﻮﻋﯽ و اﻧﺴﺎن را ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽدﻫﺪ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ: ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎی آﯾﻨﺪه و ﻋﺪمﻗﻄﻌﯿﺖﻫﺎ از ﺗﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺑﺎزﯾﮕﺮان ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ، ازﺟﻤﻠﻪ ﺳﺎزﻣﺎنﻫﺎی ﭘﯿﺸﺮو، ﻧﻬﺎدﻫﺎی ﺗﻨﻈﯿﻢﮔﺮ و ﺳﺎزﻣﺎنﻫﺎی در ﺣﺎل ﺗﻄﺒﯿﻖ، ﺷﮑﻞ ﻣﯽﮔﯿﺮﻧﺪ. ﺳﺎزﻣﺎنﻫﺎی ﻗﺪرﺗﻤﻨﺪ ﻣﯽﺗﻮاﻧﻨﺪ ﺑﺎ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪﮔﺬاری ﻫﺪﻓﻤﻨﺪ در ﻫﻮش ﻣﺼﻨﻮﻋﯽ، ﻣﺴﯿﺮ آﯾﻨﺪه را ﻫﺪاﯾﺖ ﮐﻨﻨﺪ- ﺑﺮای ﻧﻤﻮﻧﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ آن ﺑﻪﻋﻨﻮان اﺑﺰار ﮐﻤﮑﯽ، ﻧﻪ ﺟﺎﯾﮕﺰﯾﻦ ﻧﯿﺮوی اﻧﺴﺎﻧﯽ. ﻧﻬﺎدﻫﺎی ﺗﻨﻈﯿﻢﮔﺮ ﻧﯿﺰ در ﺗﻌﯿﯿﻦ ﭼﺎرﭼﻮبﻫﺎی ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻧﯽ ﺑﺮای ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ و اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از اﯾﻦ ﻓﻨﺎوری، ﻧﻘﺶ ﮐﻠﯿﺪی دارﻧﺪ. در ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻞ، ﺷﺮﮐﺖﻫﺎی ﮐﻢﺗﻮانﺗﺮ ﺑﺮای ﺗﻄﺒﯿﻖ و اﺟﺘﻨﺎب از ﻓﺮﺻﺖ ازدﺳﺖرﻓﺘﻪ ﻣﯽﺗﻮاﻧﻨﺪ ﺑﺎ ﺑﻬﺮهﮔﯿﺮی از اﺑﺰارﻫﺎی ﻣﻨﺒﻊﺑﺎز، ﺧﺪﻣﺎت اﺑﺮی و اﺟﺮای ﻃﺮحﻫﺎی آزﻣﺎﯾﺸﯽ، ﺧﻄﺮ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪﮔﺬاری را ﮐﺎﻫﺶ داده و ﺑﻪﺗﺪرﯾﺞ از ﻣﺰاﯾﺎی ﻫﻮش ﻣﺼﻨﻮﻋﯽ ﺑﻬﺮهﻣﻨﺪ ﺷﻮﻧﺪ. اﯾﺠﺎد ﻓﺮﻫﻨﮓ ﯾﺎدﮔﯿﺮی و آﻣﻮزش ﻣﺴﺘﻤﺮ ﻧﯿﺰ در اﯾﻦ ﻣﺴﯿﺮ، ﻧﻘﺸﯽ ﺑﺴﺰا دارد.

decision-making scenarios utilizing artificial intelligence in organizations

background and objective: making correct decisions is one of the key factors determining the success of organizations. efforts have always been made to improve the decision-making process within organizations. with the rapid growth of the artificial intelligence market, organizations are increasingly leveraging this technology to optimize their decision-making processes. amid this trend, there are significant hopes and concerns about the future of decision-making supported by machine intelligence in organizations. this research aims to outline scenarios for the future of decision-making using ai.methodology: this study adopts a futures research approach and utilizes the global business network method to develop scenarios. initially, data derived from the literature and semi-structured interviews with experts were coded using thematic analysis and classified into seventeen categories. subsequently, through cross-impact analysis and expert evaluations, two drivers were selected based on their importance and uncertainty to construct the scenarios. finally, four scenarios were developed based on these two main drivers.findings: the research identified seventeen drivers influencing machine intelligence-based decision-making in organizations. using cross-impact analysis, two critical uncertainties—ai’s decision-making ability compared to humans and the extent of ai adoption in decision-making—were chosen. based on these two axes, four scenarios were outlined: marginalized human , the mirage of machine intelligence, humans as decision masters, and missed opportunities. each scenario depicts a different future regarding the role of humans and ai in organizational decision-making. the intermediate scenario illustrates the coexistence of ai and humans.conclusion: due to economic constraints and sanctions, the likelihood of the missed opportunities scenario occurring in iran is high. limited investment in ai and the lack of prioritization for its development may push the country away from even a constructive coexistence between humans and machine intelligence. to avoid this outcome, it is recommended that organizations initiate small pilot projects, utilize open-source tools and cloud services to reduce costs, and control technological risks. continuous employee training and collaboration with universities and research centers can also enhance skills and reduce external dependency. finally, monitoring return on investment and adopting agile methodologies will pave the way for gradual and efficient utilization of ai.