ارزیابی و پیش بینی تغییرات فضایی و روند رشد شهری با استفاده ازسنجش از دور (مطالعه موردی: شهر قروه)

ﻣﻘﺪﻣﻪ: رﺷﺪ ﺟﻮاﻣﻊ ﺷﻬﺮی و اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ در ﻃﻮل ﭼﻨﺪ دﻫﻪ اﺧﯿﺮ ﺑﺎﻋﺚ ﮔﺴﺘﺮش ﺑﯽﻗﺎﻋﺪه ﺷﻬﺮﻫﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺣﺎﻟﺖ ﻣﺠﺰا ﺑﺎ ﺑﺎﻓﺖ اﺻﻠﯽ و ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ آن ﺑﻪ ﺳﻮی اراﺿﯽ زراﻋﯽ و ﻣﺤﯿﻂ ﭘﯿﺮاﻣﻮن ﺧﻮد ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. اﯾﻦ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﺑﺪون ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات ﮐﺎرﺑﺮی اراﺿﯽ ﭘﯿﺮاﻣﻮﻧﯽ ﺷﻬﺮ ﻣﯽﮔﺮدد.ﻫﺪف: در ﭼﻨﺪ دﻫﻪ ﮔﺬﺷﺘﻪ، ﺷﻬﺮ ﻗﺮوه ﺑﺎ رﺷﺪ و ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﺷﻬﺮی و ﺷﻬﺮکﻫﺎی ﭘﯿﺮاﻣﻮﻧﯽ ﻣﺘﻌﺪدی ﻣﻮاﺟﻪ ﺑﻮده ﮐﻪ اﯾﻦ ﻣﺴﺌﻠﻪ، ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات ﮐﺎرﺑﺮی اراﺿﯽ ﺷﻬﺮ ﻗﺮوه و ﻧﻮاﺣﯽ ﭘﯿﺮاﻣﻮن آن ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﻫﺪف اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات ﮐﺎرﺑﺮی اراﺿﯽ ﺷﻬﺮ ﻗﺮوه و اراﺋﻪ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪای ﺑﺮای ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ آﺗﯽ ﺷﻬﺮ ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ. روش ﺷﻨﺎﺳﯽ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ: ﺑﺮای ﺳﻨﺠﺶ دﻗﯿﻖ ﭘﯿﺎﻣﺪﻫﺎی ﭘﺪﯾﺪه ﺧﺰش ﺷﻬﺮی در ﻧﺎﺣﯿﻪ ﻣﻮرد ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ از روش ﺗﻮﺻﯿﻔﯽ- ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻠﯽ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺷﺪ. ﺑﺮای ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ و ﭘﯿﺶ ﺑﯿﻨﯽ روﻧﺪ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات ﮐﺎرﺑﺮی اراﺿﯽ، از ﺗﺼﺎوﯾﺮ ﻣﺎﻫﻮارهای ﻟﻨﺪﺳﺖ ﺑﺎ ﺳﻨﺠﻨﺪه etm ،tm و oli در ﺳﻪ ﻣﻘﻄﻊ زﻣﺎﻧﯽ 2000 ،1986 و 2018 اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﮔﺮدﯾﺪ. اﺑﺘﺪا ﺗﺼﺎوﯾﺮ ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از روشneural network ﺑﻪ ﭘﻨﺞ ﻃﺒﻘﻪ، اراﺿﯽ ﺷﻬﺮی، اراﺿﯽ آﺑﯽ، اراﺿﯽ دﯾﻢ، ﭘﻬﻨﻪ آﺑﯽ و اراﺿﯽ ﺑﺎﯾﺮ در ﻧﺮم اﻓﺰار envi ﻃﺒﻘﻪﺑﻨﺪی و ﺳﭙﺲ ﺻﺤﺖ ﺳﻨﺠﯽ و آﺷﮑﺎرﺳﺎزی ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات اﻧﺠﺎم ﺷﺪ. درﻧﻬﺎﯾﺖ، ﺑﺮای ﭘﯿﺶ ﺑﯿﻨﯽ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات ﮐﺎرﺑﺮی اراﺿﯽ ﺷﻬﺮ ﻗﺮوه ﺑﺮای ﺳﺎل2031 از ﺳﻠﻮل ﻫﺎی ﺧﻮدﮐﺎر ﻣﺎرﮐﻮف اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺷﺪ.ﻗﻠﻤﺮو ﺟﻐﺮاﻓﯿﺎﯾﯽ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ: ﻗﻠﻤﺮو ﺟﻐﺮاﻓﯿﺎﯾﯽ اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ، ﺷﻬﺮ ﻗﺮوه ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ. ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪﻫﺎ: ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪﻫﺎ ﺣﺎﮐﯽ از آن اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ در ﻧﺎﺣﯿﻪ ﻗﺮوه ﺑﺮ اﺛﺮ رﺷﺪ ﺷﻬﺮ ﺑﻪ ﺷﮑﻞ ﮔﺴﺴﺘﻪ، ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮﯾﻦ ﻣﯿﺰان ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ ﮐﺎرﺑﺮی زﻣﯿﻦ در ﯾﮏ دوره 32 ﺳﺎﻟﻪ ﯾﻌﻨﯽ از ﺳﺎل 1984 ﻣﯿﻼدی ﺗﺎ ﺳﺎل 2018 در اراﺿﯽ زراﻋﯽ ﺑﻮده اﺳﺖ. ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮری ﮐﻪ ﺳﺎﺧﺖ وﺳﺎز ﻣﺴﮑﻮﻧﯽ، در ﺳﺎل 2018 ﻣﯿﻼدی ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺎل 1984 ﻣﯿﻼدی ﺑﻪ ﻣﯿﺰان 611 ﻫﮑﺘﺎر اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ ﻣﻘﺎﯾﺴﻪ آﻣﺎرﻫﺎی ﺑﻪ دﺳﺖ آﻣﺪه ﺑﯿﺎﻧﮕﺮ آن اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﺳﺎﺧﺖ وﺳﺎز ﻣﺴﮑﻮﻧﯽ ﻫﻤﭽﻨﺎن روﻧﺪ اﻓﺰاﯾﺸﯽ دارد. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ: ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽدﻫﺪ ﮐﻪ در ﺻﻮرت اداﻣﻪ روﻧﺪ ﮐﻨﻮﻧﯽ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات در ﺳﻄﺢ اراﺿﯽ ﺷﻬﺮی از 927,86 ﻫﮑﺘﺎر در ﺳﺎل 2018 ﺑﻪ 1139,45 ﻫﮑﺘﺎر 2031 ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ رﺳﯿﺪ ﮐﻪ ﻣﻨﺠﺮ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺨﺮﯾﺐ ﮐﺎرﺑﺮی اراﺿﯽ ﮐﺸﺎورزی ﭘﯿﺮاﻣﻮن ﺷﻬﺮ ﻗﺮوه ﻣﯽﮔﺮدد.. ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮاﯾﻦ، اﮔﺮ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ ﮔﺬاری و اﻗﺪاﻣﺎت ﻻزم ﺑﺮای ﺟﻠﻮﮔﯿﺮی از اداﻣﻪ اﯾﻦ روﻧﺪ ﺻﻮرت ﻧﮕﯿﺮد، ﺑﻪ دﻟﯿﻞ ﻓﺸﺎر ﺑﺮ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ، ﺗﺒﺪﯾﻞ و ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ ﮐﺎرﺑﺮی اراﺿﯽ و در ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪ ﻧﺎﺑﻮدی زﻣﯿﻦ ﻫﺎی ارزﺷﻤﻨﺪ ﮐﺸﺎورزی آﺛﺎر زﯾﺎن ﺑﺎر زﯾﺴﺖ ﻣﺤﯿﻄﯽ در پی خواهد داشت.

evaluation and prediction of spatial changes and urban growth using automatic cells (case study: qorveh city)

introduction: in the past few decades, the growth of urban societies and population growth have led to the spread of distorted cities into separate regions with its original texture and its development towards agricultural land and itssurroundings. this unplanned development leads to land use changes in the periphery of the city.research aim: in the past few decades, the city of qorveh has encountered with the development of urban and periurbansettlements, which caused changes in the land use of the city of qorveh and its surrounding areas. analysis ofland use change in qorveh city can be effective in planning for future development of the city.methodology: a descriptive-analytical method was used to measure accurately the consequences of urban growth inthe study area therefore, to attempt to estimate and determine land use change trends, landsat satellite images withtm, etm and oli sensors were used for the three time periods of 1986, 2000 and 2018. these images werecategorized, validated and detected by the neural network method to five floors; urban lands, arable lands, dry lands,water zones and bayer lands. finally, markov was used to calculate land use changes in qorveh city for 2031.studied areas: the area under study was qorveh city.results: the findings indicate that, in qorveh city, the urban development and sprawling growth of the city hascaused the highest rate of land use change in agricultural lands over a 32-year period, from 1984 to 2018. as a result,residential construction increased by 611 hectares in 2018 compared to 1984, a comparison of the statistics suggeststhat residential construction continues to growconclusion: the results show that if the current trend continues, changes in the level of urban land willreach from 927.86 hectares in 2018 to 1139.45 hectares in 2031, which will lead to the destruction ofagricultural land use around qorve city.therefore, if policies and measures are not taken to prevent this trend tocontinue, the environmental damage will be caused by pressure on resources, conversion and land use change,resulting in the destruction of valuable agricultural land.