ارزیابی تاب آوری اجتماعی و اقتصادی منطقه 3 شهرداری شیراز در برابر زلزله

امروزه جوامع محلی در تلاش برای دست یابی به شرایطی هستند که در صورت وقوع بحران، بازگشت سریع آن ها را به وضعیت پیش از بحران فراهم سازد. بنابراین دیدگاه غالب از تمرکز بر روی کاهش آسیب پذیری به افزایش تاب آوری در مقابل سوانح تغییر کرده است. تاب آوری به ظرفیت سیستم های اکولوژیکی برای جذب اختلالات و حفظ ساختارهای لازم سیستم اطلاق می شود. شهر شیراز در منطقه لرزه خیز زاگرس قرار گرفته که دارای استعداد لرزه خیزی بالایی می باشد. با توجه به اهمیت کاربری های موجود در منطقه 3 شهرداری شیراز، هدف این پژوهش سنجش میزان تاب آوری اجتماعی اقتصادی در برابر زلزله در این منطقه است. پژوهش حاضر از نظر هدف، کاربردی و از نظر شیوه انجام، توصیفی تحلیلی است. بدین صورت که با استفاده از مطالعات کتابخانه‌ای همه معیارهای مورد ارزیابی مناسب این منطقه استخراج گردید. سپس جهت بررسی تجزیه و تحلیل چند متغیره بین متغیرها و همچنین برآورد متوسط متغیر وابسته(تاب آوری اجتماعی اقتصادی) براساس مقادیر متغیرهای مستقل (متغیرهای زمینه ای اجتماعی اقتصادی) مدل رگرسیون خطی چندگانه به کار رفته است. نهایتا برای تعیین سهم مولفه های تاب آوری اجتماعی و اقتصادی در تبیین میزان تاب آوری خانوارهای این منطقه از مدل شبکه عصبی مصنوعی، استفاده شده است. با توجه به نتیجه ی رگرسیون خطی با کاهش میزان درآمد صرف ضروریات میزان تاب آوری افزایش می یابد. از میان شاخص های مورد مطالعه مولفه سرمایه اجتماعی و مهارت مهم ترین و مولفه های میزان و شدت خسارت و توانایی بازگشت به شرایط شغلی و مالی مناسب کم اهمیت ترین متغیر در پیش‎بینی تاب آوری کل برخوردارند. بنابراین مولفه های اجتماعی در این مطالعه تاثیر بیش تری در میزان تاب آوری دارند.

evaluating the components of social and economic resilience against earthquake in the 3rd municipal district of shiraz city

introduction: nowadays, considering the unexampled urban population growth, natural disasters prevention and control especially earthquake and increasing urban resilience are among main challenges in urban management. urban resilience stands for the ability of attracting and reorganizing the changes resulted from disorders, stabilizing the city and building capacity. the concept of resilience has been translated as the ability to recovery, quick improvement, change, feasibility and also flexible property. there are many discussions about the origin of resilience world. some is related to biological area and others belong to physics. community resilience should encompass economic, organizational, social and ecologic aspects of the society. social resilience is the adaptive and learning capacity of individuals, groups and institutions to self- organise in a way that maintains system function in the face of change. in economic terms, resilience refers to inherent response and compatibility of people and society against hazard. iran, due to its climactic and geological characteristics especially its location over alps-himalaya earthquake belt, is one of the most vulnerable countries of the world.methodology: shiraz is in serious situation as a result of some factors. these factors are its location in a zone of high and very high seismic risk, failure to comply with safety rules like building in the privacy faults and the areas prone to geological instabilities, design and construction of inappropriate buildings and critical facilities with possible seismic intensity, no planning and required operational capabilities for disaster management for dealing with the consequences of an accident as well as the existence of multiple aging and vulnerable textures. considering the importance of existing land uses in the 3rd municipal district of shiraz city, the aim of this study was an evaluation of social and economic resilience in this district. this applied research is using descriptive and analytical methods. the indicators of social and economic resilience were identified from the literature. social resilience factors include awareness, skill, attitude and social capital. economic resilience factors include damage severity, recovery capacity and employment recovery. the data collection tool was a researcher-made questionnaire that included questions about socioeconomic characteristics of households and questions assessing dimensions and components of resilience. the estimated sample size using cochran’s sample size formula was 383. statistical inferences were made based on different test including multiple linear regression and multilayer perceptron artificial neural network.result and discussionthis research provides a comparison of social and economical resilience to earthquake in the 3rd municipal district of shiraz city, based on these components: mean score of social resilience was 40. social capital is an important indicator of social resilience level of the communities. mean score of economic resilience was 16.1. employment recovery is an important marker of economic resilience to assess the extent and severity of damage to properties. it is worth mentioning that the coefficient of multiple determination or r-squared was 0.22 and 0.19 in regression models. consequently, 22% of variance in total resilience and 19% of variance in total resilience are explained by social and economic variables. the predictive accuracy of the models was evaluated using mean squared error (mse) and root mean squared error (rmse) loss functions. in this study a network with 7 input layers and 6 hidden layers performed. conclusion: the examination of the effect of underlying factors on the total amount of resilience, the results of the multiple linear regression model showed that with increased staying time in the area of residence the level of the economic resilience of households decreases. furthermore, it indicated that a decrease in share of income spent on necessities could result in an increase in social and economic resilience of the households under study. neural network analysis revealed that social capital and employment recovery are the most and least effective factors. in the population under study, social component, was the most important determinant of resilience. this means that although elements such as the strength of buildings, economic status, earthquake- training and advertisement of the government are apparently effective in resilience, variables such as earthquake awareness, skills, social capital are more critical and play a key role in resilience level of households in the 3rd municipal district of shiraz city. also, the framework provided in this research can be applied to other neighborhoods for a measurement and analysis of the social and economical resilience level.