شناخت و سطح بندی شاخص های موثر مکانِ حساس در برنامه ریزی پدافندغیرعامل روستاهای کشور (نمونه موردی: روستاهای مرزی استان اردبیل)

پدافند غیرعامل به معنای کاهش آسیب‌پذیری در هنگام بحران، بدون استفاده از اقدامات نظامی و صرفا با بهره‌گیری از فعالیت‌های غیرنظامی، فنی و مدیریتی است. معیشت و اشتغال پایدار و فعالیت انسانی در گرو امنیت در تمامی ابعاد هر جامعه ای هست، مخاطرات طبیعی و انسانی ، همواره زندگی، زیربناها و تاسیسات شهری و روستایی را تهدید می‌کند.علی الخصوص روستاهای مرزی کشور، احتمال آسیب‌های جدی و در وسعت زیاد در زمان‌های بحرانی مانند جنگ زیاد است. از این رو، حفاظت روستایی برای کاهش آسیب‌های احتمالی ناشی از خطرات جنگ به روش‌های پدافند غیرعامل، امری حیاتی و ضروری است. با بررسی ادبیات موضوع و بر مبنای مدل مخاطرات طبیعی – موقعیت جغرافیایی – مخاطرات انسانی و مدل عوامل جمعیتی – موقعیت جغرافیایی – مخاطرات طبیعی، 16 زیر معیار در قالب 4 عامل اصلی شناسایی شد. این عوامل و زیرمعیارها با نظر سنجی از 60 نفر از خبرگان، اساتید دانشگاهی و کارشناسان و با کمک فرایند تحلیل سلسله مراتبی فازی رتبه بندی گردید. طی بررسی ادبیات موجود معلوم گردید که با توجه به جدید بودن موضوع، هیچ مطالعه‌ داخلی یا خارجی این تعداد معیار را شناسایی نکرده اند. نتایج تحقیق نشان می دهد که از نظر خبرگان، هنگام تصمیم گیری در خصوص عوامل موثر مکان حساس در برنامه ریزی پدافندغیرعامل روستاهای مرزی استان اردبیل بایستی عوامل مخاطرات طبیعی، انسانی، عوامل جمعیتی و مخاطرات انسانی به ترتیب مد نظر قرار گیرند.

evaluate and leveling sensitive sites indexes in the planning of passive defenses of country villages (case study: border villages of ardebil province)

introduction in considering the general trend of the middle east region especially the, iran is known as a land that is constantly exposed to various natural and abnormal hazards. the geopolitical and geostrategic situation in iran, the existence of numerous underground resources and the formation of an ideological government has led to the country being exposed to various threats and conflicts over the years, ardabil province is in the northwest of iran and one of the border provinces of the country. the province is neighboring with west azerbaijan, and its border villages are in the cities of parsabad, ghermi, bilesovar and namin. village: the village is the origin of the country's divisions that are environmentally (natural, social, cultural, and economic) that are homogeneous with a specific domain or territory of independent or customary jurisdiction, in which at least 20 households or 100 people, whether concentrated or distributed, live in it. and the majority of its inhabitants are directly or indirectly engaged in one of the activities of agriculture, livestock, horticulture in general, rural industries and fishing or a combination of these activities and in the custom as ten villages, villages or villages it has been called. principles of passive defense: a basic measures and infrastructures, can be used for the goals of passive defense such as reducing damage and injuries, reducing the capability and ability of the identification system, targeting and accuracy of targeting enemy offensive weapons and imposing more cost to him.in most scientific and military sources of the world, the principles of non operational defense include the following six to seven steps that should be taken into account in the design, planning and implementation of actions. (camouflage) (concealment) (cover) (deception) (separation and dispersion) (hardening) (early warning) (civil defense)methodology the present study is a descriptive survey research with a practical nature. in this study, we seek to identify and rank factors that can be used by trust organizations in the field of passive defense. for this purpose, two steps have been taken. in the first stage, the effective factors of critical location in the planning of the non functioning of the borderland villages of the country are based on library studies, articles and research carried out at the centers and universities. table 3 shows the set of identified factors in this study. in the second stage, the identified factors were ranked according to the questionnaire and using the technique of the fuzzy hierarchy analysis process. the hierarchical structure of the effective factors of the critical location in the planning of the non active defenses of the border villages of ardabil province is shown in fig. 1. results and discussionin this research, four components are: 1. geographic location that includes the criteria for slope and elevation of the village, distance from the border, vegetation, and distance from the fault. 2. demographic factors including demographic density, adjacent demographic centers, local culture, employment status. 3. natural hazards including criteria for floods, storms, earthquakes, volcanoes. 4. human hazards including suicide operations, war, industrial disasters, excavation and exploitation were investigated as follows:using fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (fahp), a questionnaire was used to obtain expert opinions on the paired matrix. the questionnaires were designed to allow respondents to identify the importance of each of them by comparing the criteria and sub criteria in their own group. for assessing the validity of the questionnaire, the views of experts and academic professors have been used. also, in order to measure the reliability of the questionnaire, the inconsistency rate (which should be more than 0.1 b) should be used as table 3. after collecting the answers of the experts in the form of verbal items, the responses should be converted to a fuzzy scale. the scale used in this study is a 9 point fuzzy scale in table 4, which kaul and vorma have suggested based on the hour scale.conclusion in this study, the key factors affecting the critical location in the planning of the non functioning of the country's villages (case study of the border villages of ardabil province) have been investigated and identified in four categories: geographical location, demographic factors, natural and human hazards along with 16 sub populations. finally, these factors and sub criteria are ranked. the findings of the research show that natural hazards from the viewpoint of experts are at the top of the factors influencing the sensitive location in the planning of passive defense of the border villages of the country. in this research, demographic factors after natural hazards in the second rank are the effective factors of the critical location in the planning of the non functioning of border guard villages. as expected, paying attention to the factors affecting the sensitive location in the planning of non operational defenses of the border villages of the country is very important. in this research, local indigenous cultural standards have been ranked after demographic factors are important (density and adjacent populations). after demographic factors and natural hazards, the geographical location and human risks are ranked third and fourth respectively. geographic location includes the slope and height of the village, the distance from the border, the vegetation and the distance from the fault is sufficient. the distance from the fault is one of the most important sub criteria. in this research, among the 16 sub criteria, the third rank is assigned. suicide operations, war, industrial disasters, excavation and exploitation are among the sub criteria of human hazard. finally, the results of this study can be used to focus on active non operational centers, crisis management organization and the ministry of the interior on identifying the factors that should be considered in the planning of non operational defenses of the border villages of the country, as well as the priority of these factors.