ماهیت رقابت هند و چین در حوزۀ جنوب آسیا

هند و چین پس از تحول اساسی در سیاست خارجی خود، در راستای به‌دست‌آوردن پایه‌های جدیدِ قدرت گام برداشته و خیزش دو قدرت زمینه‌های رقابت آن‌ها را در محیط‌های پیرامونشان به‌ویژه جنوب آسیا فراهم کرده است. اگرچه اکنون ماهیت این رقابت‌ها در حوزۀ رقابت‌های ژئواکونومی متمرکز است، اما تشدید این روندها می‌تواند رقابت‌های ژئوپلتیک میان این بازیگران را نیز افزایش داده و آن‌ها را وادار به اتخاذ استراتژی‌های جدید در تعمیق پیوندهای استراتژیک با بازیگران منطقه‌ای کند. در این راستا، این پژوهش به‌دنبال پاسخگویی به این پرسش محوری است که ماهیت رقابت هند و چین در حوزۀ جنوب آسیا بر چه مبنایی است؟ نگارندگان بر این باور‌ند که به‌دلیل رشد و توسعۀ چین، هند احساس تهدید کرده و در جست‌و‌جوی تقویت پیوندهایش با دیگر رقبای چین و شرکای خود است. هند که در همسایگی این کشور قرار داشته و به قدرت اقتصادی و توانایی‌های نظامی آن واقف است، گسترش نفوذ این کشور را تهدیدی علیه خود تلقی کرده و در واکنش به این کشور به برقراری ارتباط با کشورهایی روی آورده است. روش تحقیق در این پژوهش توصیفی-تحلیلی و گردآوری داده‌ها براساس منابع کتابخانه‌ای و اینترنتی است.

The Nature of India and China’s Rivalries in South Asia

IntroductionThe rivalry between India and China in South Asia is one of the indisputable facts of the current international system. The two countries have expanded relations with other countries to neutralize the actions of the other side. China, which is increasingly influential in various regions, provoked the reaction of India, and this sense of threat from China toward India increased when Beijing began to make massive investments in Pakistan. In India’s view, cooperation between the two rivals could hamper Delhi’s growth and development, and their aggressive intentions could escalate tensions, leading to an offensive opposition toward New Delhi. Thus, the question arising here is that: what is the nature of the rivalry between India and China in South Asia? It can be said that India’s reactions to China’s growing influence stem from its sense of threat from China, and India seeks to balance China’s power by reforming its foreign policy and diversifying its relations with South Asian countries, the major powers and Iran. India also obtained exemptions from sanctions on Iran following US sanctions against Iran, indicating India’s efforts to establish extensive relationships with various countries to repel Chinese power and reduce its threat. As South Asia is one of the most critical regions, the growing influence of India and China in this region can have a significant impact on these countries, especially Pakistan and Afghanistan. This can have a devastating effect on these countries if the competition is aggressive; however, if the rivalry is constructive between India and China, it can lead to the growth of countries in this area. As a result, it is necessary to analyze the nature of IndiaChina competition, and the purpose of this study is to analyze the nature of these competitions and to investigate why India and China compete in South Asia.  Research methodologyThe research method in this research is descriptiveanalytical, and data collection is in the form of library and Internet resources. Moreover, the framework adopted is the balance of threat theory, and the reason why the authors have chosen that is the fact that India feels threatened by China and reacts to it accordingly, which shows the nature of the rivalry between the two countries.  DiscussionThe authors of the present study use the theory of balance of threat and its indicators such as power or capabilities (including population, economic power, size of the country and geopolitical factors of power); geographical proximity; aggressive power and intentions, and believe that China’s geographical proximity to India, its revisionist approach and efforts to change the balance of power by challenging the power of large or growing countries such as India, or China’s growing economic and military power all have led to a sense of threat from India by China, and India in return seeks to diversify its relations with neighboring and large countries in an effort to contain this threat. One of these activities is China’s influence in Afghanistan. China has different goals in Afghanistan. Economic factors are one of the reasons why China is playing a greater role in this country, which means that Afghanistan, with its rich mineral resources, has a high potential to help the economic growth and development of China’s power. Political factors and China’s impact to play in the peace and security process in Afghanistan today are other significant reasons. The withdrawal of the United States from Afghanistan and its effect on the goals and benefits of Afghanistan’s new foreign policy, which seeks to attract new partners, has also played a key role in China’s foreign policy toward Afghanistan. China’s efforts to manage and prevent the spread of terrorist insecurities from Afghanistan into China, and also Pakistan’s efforts to involve China in the Afghan peace process (Shafiee, 2015) are among the factors influencing China’s growing influence in Afghanistan.China’s influence in Pakistan is another factor leading India to feel threatened. The port of Gwadar in Pakistan is one of the main pillars of SinoPakistani economic cooperation. This port is essential for the Chinese as a highway connecting to the Persian Gulf (Ketabi, Dehghan, Dehghan Nasiri, 2016: 23). This port provides access to the deep waters of the landlocked countries of Central Asia and Afghanistan and the transfer of goods from these countries to world markets and can also be an option to put pressure on India from China and Pakistan. In this way, the economic, military and security power of China and Pakistan will be expanded, and it will equip the two countries in a possible war with India. The Chinese have extensive cooperation with Pakistan in the military aircraft and tank sector. It is also said that Pakistan’s nuclear technology has been largely developed with the help of China and has acquired nuclear weapons (Mollazehi, 2014). On the other hand, China and Pakistan have reached an agreement to establish a Jiwani military base. The base, to be built near the port of Gwadar, will further strengthen the Pakistani alliance, along with effectively increasing China’s naval capacity at the confluence of the Oman Sea and the Indian Ocean in the face of US naval supremacy and India’s growing naval fleet. China leads to a key component in the competition for power in the South Asian region (Bahrami Moghaddam, 2017). Finally, it can be said that China has sought to expand its relations with Afghanistan and Pakistan in order to achieve its goals, and its increasing influence in these countries has led to India feeling threatened by China. India is one of the most affected countries by China’s rising power in the region due to its rivalry with Beijing. In this regard, India has tried to expand its relations with various countries in line with the policies of Look East, Look West, Look North and relations with the United States. Israel is another option for India, where relations between the two countries have always been expanding. It remains one of India’s main sources of arms, and Russia is India’s thirdlargest arms exporter after the United States. Military and trade cooperation is also associated with the expansion of political relations (Taghizadeh Ansari, 2017: 246242). Cooperation with Iran has been another possibility for India to balance the power of China and achieve its interests. During the Narasimha Rao period, Rao’s &Delhi Declaration& and the Memorandum of Understanding &Strategic Partnership Roadmap& provided the basic political and legal framework for longterm and lasting cooperation between the two sides. Before the culmination of nuclear sanctions against Iran, IranIndia relations were positive and constructive, some of which referred to it as the &IranIndia alliance& (Soltaninejad, 2016: 125). Nonetheless, it can be said that the relations between Delhi and Iran have been overshadowed by the United States. Also, after the imposition of sanctions, the Indian company Reliance Industries stopped importing from Iran and replaced imports from other countries with Iran (Mukherjee, 2017). However, the two countries are cooperating in other areas. For India, for example, participation in industrial and communications projects in Chabahar port is a strategic advantage. Although in recent weeks there have been news about a 25year agreement between Iran and China and the withdrawal of India from the Chabahar project by Iran, India still seeks to keep the project alive, and accordingly, officials from the two countries met recently. In fact, India is concerned about the growing proximity of its rivals China and Pakistan to Iran and is working to ensure that it does not lose cooperation with Iran over the port.   ConclusionChina and India have struggled to establish effective, nontensionbased relations due to domestic needs and selfinterest. As a growing country, China, in pursuit of its interests and goals, has begun to establish extensive communication and investment in various countries.