بررسی تاثیر احساس امنیت بر تمایل به مهاجرت جوانان: مورد مطالعه شهرستان آبدانان در استان ایلام

امنیت از نیازهای اساسی انسان است، زمانی که افراد آینده را به لحاظ اقتصادی، اجتماعی و زندگی شخصی نامطمئن ببیند، به لحاظ امنیت دچار تردید می‌شوند. این عدم احساس امنیت می‌تواند محرکی برای حرکت و جابجایی افراد باشد. در این راستا مطالعه حاضر با انتخاب یک نمونه 376 نفری از جوانان شهرستان آبدانان در استان ایلام به بررسی این مسئله پرداخته است .نتایج بیانگر آن است در تقریباً تمامی ابعاد احساس امنیت جوانان مورد مطالعه نمره‌ای پایین‌تر از میانگین مورد انتظار را کسب نموده‌اند. از سوی دیگر میانگین نمره تمایل به مهاجرت در جوانان پاسخگو بالاتر از میانگین مورد انتظار بود. نتایج تحلیل چند متغیره با استفاده از رگرسیون خطی بیانگر آن است که با کنترل متغیرهای زمینه‌ای تمامی ابعاد احساس امنیت بر تمایل به مهاجرت جوانان تاثیرگذار هستند و هر چه جوانان احساس ناامنی بیشتری در ابعاد مختلف (اقتصادی مقدار بتا 0.18-، اجتماعی مقدار بتا 0.27-، سیاسی مقدار بتا 0.21- و قضایی 0.31-) داشته باشند میزان تمایل به مهاجرت در آن‌ها افزایش می‌یابد. با این وجود نکته قابل تامل آن است که در بین ابعاد مختلف احساس امنیت، احساس امنیت قضایی بیشترین تاثیر را بر میزان تمایل به مهاجرت جوانان داشته است. بنابراین احساس امنیت در رابطه با مهاجرت را نباید به بعد اقتصادی آن تقلیل داد بلکه هر کدام از ابعاد آن می‌تواند به نوبه خود بر تمایل به مهاجرت جوانان اثرگذار باشند.

investigating the effect of the sense of security on the tendency of young people to migrate: the case study of abdanan city in ilam province

1.introductionmigration is a dynamic process arising from changing social conditions, which can affect not only the migrant people but also the origin and destination society. one of the factors that can create a underlie for immigrants is the feeling of security. security is one of the basic human needs, when people see the future as uncertain in terms of economic, social and personal life, they have doubts about security. this lack of feeling of security can be a stimulus for the movement of people during certain times and places. therefore, studying the feeling of security in relation to migration can help to better understand why people migrate?2.literature reviewamong the theories used in this research are the theories of avoiding risk and reducing indecision and the theory of attraction and repulsion. according to the theory of risk avoidance, when people evaluate the economic and social conditions or their personal life as unfavorable, or even if they conclude that the future is uncertain in terms of economic, social and personal life, they have doubts about security. this lack of feeling of security can be a stimulus for the movement of people during certain times and places. attraction and repulsion theory also consider migration as a smart decision by individuals to take advantage of opportunities that are not sufficiently available in their place of residence. ravenstein has classified attraction and repulsion factors in the form of immigration laws. in these rules, distance components, attraction and repulsion factors, counter flow, and spatial features of the place of residence are considered important factors in explaining migration. 3.methodology:the method of this research is survey type. the sampling method was a combination of multi-stage and stratified cluster sampling. in this regard, the present study investigated this issue by selecting a sample of 376 young people from abdanan city in ilam province.the tool of data collection was a questionnaire created by the researcher, the validity of the research variables was checked and confirmed in two stages of face validity and confirmatory factor analysis. cronbach's alpha reliability coefficient for all research variables was higher than 0.70 and the factor loading of their items was higher than 0.50.4.resultsthe results show that in almost all aspects of the sense of security- economic average 12.4 maximum score 30, social average 17 maximum score 30, political average 9 maximum score 20 and judicial average 12.4 maximum score 30- the young people studied have scored lower than the expected average. on the other hand, the average score of the tendency to migrate -the average is 11.9 and the maximum score is 20 - among young respondents is higher than the expected average. the results of bivariate analysis or hypothesis testing using pearson's correlation coefficient indicated that there is an inverse correlation between all dimensions of the sense of security (economic -0.17, social -0.26, judicial -0.31, political -0.20) and there is a tendency for young people to migrate. also, the bivariate analysis of background variables shows that there is no significant difference between the desire to migrate in men and women. there is no significant difference between the employed and the unemployed in terms of the average desire to migrate. the average desire to migrate among young people with university education is higher than that of young people with diploma and lower education, which is statistically significant. there is no significant difference in the average desire to migrate between young people who have a history of migration in the family and young people who do not have a history of migration in the family. also, as young people get older, the desire to migrate increases, this is statistically significant. also, the results of multivariate analysis using linear regression show that by controlling background variables, all aspects of the sense of security have an impact on the tendency of young people to migrate, and the more insecure young people feel in different dimensions (economic beta value -0.18, social beta value -0.27, political beta value -0.21 and judicial -0.31) their tendency to migrate increases. however, it is worth considering that among the different dimensions of the sense of security, the sense of judicial security had the greatest impact on the desire of young people to migrate. in total, the research variables have been able to explain about 10% of the variable changes in the tendency of young people to migrate. therefore, the sense of security related to migration should not be reduced to its economic dimension, but each of its dimensions can in turn affect the desire of young people to migrate.