پیش‌نگری اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر درجۀ روزهای نیاز سرمایشی و گرمایشی در ایستگاه‌های منتخب استان ایلام

در مطالعه حاضر به پیش‌نگری اثرهای تغییرات آب و هوایی بر درجه روزهای نیاز سرمایشی و گرمایشی ایستگاه‌های منتخب ایلام و دهلران از طریق داده مشاهده‌ای و داده شبیه‌سازی‌شده دوره آینده براساس برون‌داد مدل‌های cmip5 پرداخته شد. بررسی داده واقعی دوره پایه نشان داد که روند افزایشی و کاهشی به‌ترتیب برای نیاز سرمایشی و گرمایشی در ایستگاه‌های ایلام و دهلران وجود دارد. در دوره آینده نیاز گرمایشی در هر دو سناریوی rcp8.5 و rcp4.5 نسبت به دوره پایه کاهش خواهد یافت؛ به‌طوری‌که تا افق 2090 در سناریوی بدبینانه در ایستگاه ایلام به‌طور متوسط 20 درجه روز و در ایستگاه دهلران 10 درجه روز نسبت به دوره پایه کاهش رخ خواهد داد. همچنین، در دوره آینده نیاز سرمایشی نسبت به دوره پایه افزایش خواهد یافت. در ایستگاه‌های ایلام و دهلران در دوره آینده میانی و دور به‌طور متوسط به‌ترتیب 9، 14، 10، و 20 درجه روز بر مقدار نیاز سرمایشی افزوده خواهد شد. تحت شرایط تغییر اقلیم دوره آینده، تعداد روزهای همراه با نیاز سرمایشی در این ایستگاه‌ها به جلو خواهد افتاد و، از طرفی دیگر، بازه زمانی همراه با نیاز سرمایشی مورد نیاز در طی سال گسترده‌تر خواهد شد.

Assessment of Climate Change Effects on Degree Days of Cooling and Heating Conditions in Selected Stations in Ilam Province

IntroductionThe phenomenon of climate change is the most important challenge and threat to human societies in the future. Urban areas and human settlements are most vulnerable parts of the climate change. Any change in climate patterns will change the amount of energy. Due to global warming, we will see an increase in the average temperature of Iran in the coming decades compared to the present. As a result, the country will face a crisis of increasing energy consumption in the coming decades to cold environment, not only in the warm season.Materials and methodsIn this research, two types of data are obtained; historical observational data and simulated data on the output of general circulation models. Historical observational or baseline data course covering the period from 1980 to 2005. In the future data section, the output of simulator models was used for the upcoming period of the CMIP5 model. The results of the global circulation models do not have the capability for the local dimension, so, in order to compensate for this problem, it is necessary to use the methods of quantum microscopy. In order to achieve the climatic simulation data in the upcoming period, MarkSIMGCM database was used for exponential imaging of the AOGCM models. This database, as a webbased tool, uses a randomized thirdorder Markov model to downscale the minimum and maximum temperature values, and rainfall and sunshine daily fluctuations. In order to simulate the data for the upcoming period, the output of the proposed AOGCM Models (BCCCSM1.1, HadGEM2ES and GFDLCM3) from the CMIP5 model (Comparison of Coupled Models Compared) was used with better spatial resolution. The RMSE, MBE, MAE and R2 indicators used for comparison.Results and discussionThe results showed that the HadGEM2ES of the CMIP5 general circulation model series has a higher performance and higher compliance with observation data. Assessments indicated that the amount of heat accumulation will increase under the conditions of climate change in the upcoming period. In the middle and far futures, the amount of cooling requirements will increase to adjust the ambient temperature due to increased air temperature. The magnitude of the incremental changes in the number of days of the cold need and the decrease in the value of the heating days is one of the major consequences of climate change in the energy field. At Dehloran Station, the cooling time period will be deployed between April and December. Under the conditions of the climate change, the current period, the number of days with cooling requirements will go up, and on the other hand, the time interval required for cooling will be wider. Most cooling needs will occur between June and August. Therefore, the amount of cooling requirements due to the increase in air temperature in tropical areas such as Dehloran is much higher than in high and mountainous areas such as the city of Ilam.ConclusionThe results showed that in the middle and far future, the amount of cooling requirements will be increased to adjust the ambient temperature due to increased air temperature. At Dehloran Station, the cooling time will be switched between April and December. Under the conditions of the climate change of the current period, the number of days with cooling needs will go ahead and, on the other hand, the coolingup time required will be wider. In both patterns of radiation induction, any change in the air temperature pattern will increase the cooling demand of different regions and urban settlements. Therefore, based on the results of this study, it is necessary for planners to take necessary measures to reduce the harmful effects in order to optimize energy consumption and increase the swing in different regions, especially tropical areas.